Thu, Feb 13 2020, 10:15 AM
Fancy chart overlays and technical studies are frustrating in the sense that they give us another angle to understand and discuss market movement, but...
Wed, Feb 12 2020, 4:20 PM
A few notes on the bond market's recent plans:
First few days of 2020: Come into the new year ready for that break above 2.0% that everyone was ex...
Wed, Feb 12 2020, 9:17 AM
2 weeks ago, as rates plummeted toward the lowest levels in more than 3 years, I began to point out a very obvious caveat to the gains. Because coron...
Tue, Feb 11 2020, 5:19 PM
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session as Chinese equities markets continued to bounce toward higher levels. This follows a head-fake toward lowe...
Tue, Feb 11 2020, 10:10 AM
Amid a dearth of important economic data between now and Friday, the bond market doesn't have much to do when it comes to pricing in bigger-picture ec...
Mon, Feb 10 2020, 9:36 AM
If the US/Iran flare up provided an opening act to the unexpected drama of 2020, coronavirus has been the headliner. Before these two events took the...
Fri, Feb 7 2020, 5:23 PM
Today's big to-do was a paradoxical bond market rally in response to a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. This wasn't just a case of a compelli...
Fri, Feb 7 2020, 10:18 AM
Here's one of those NFP mornings where it would have been very hard to predict what we're seeing in bonds based on what we've seen in the NFP numbers....
Thu, Feb 6 2020, 4:40 PM
The bond market took a break from the past 3 days of weakness today. There weren't any significant economic reports or news events (not as far as the...
Thu, Feb 6 2020, 9:23 AM
One of the most stunning and profound features of the past week of trading days has been the intensely higher volumes-especially in the overnight trad...
Wed, Feb 5 2020, 6:14 PM
So far, the correction to the coronavirus bond market rally is only a few days old, but it became much more problematic today. Yesterday was arguably...
Wed, Feb 5 2020, 9:43 AM
Heading into this morning, it looked as if bonds would have a fighting chance, at the very least. The fight in question is against the big bounce tow...
Tue, Feb 4 2020, 6:27 PM
We knew we'd have to deal with it at some point, and now we have to wonder if it's already here: the coronavirus bounce.
Why did we know it was c...
Tue, Feb 4 2020, 9:32 AM
In many respects, the market response to the coronavirus outbreak has been able to take cues from past experience with SARS in 2002/2003. In many oth...
Mon, Feb 3 2020, 6:28 PM
Today's key scheduled event was the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI--one of the several most important reports after the perennial heavy hitter, ...
Mon, Feb 3 2020, 9:18 AM
The total count of confirmed coronavirus cases will continue to grow for quite some time (several months, perhaps). Markets and epidemiologists alike...
Fri, Jan 31 2020, 6:07 PM
When the World Health Organization declared coronavirus an international health emergency yesterday, there were two schools of thought. At first glan...
Fri, Jan 31 2020, 9:12 AM
Yesterday offered up a fairly intense trading session for the bond market. Yields moved to the lowest levels in months with 10yr Treasuries hitting 1...
Thu, Jan 30 2020, 10:35 AM
With the Fed out of the way, coronavirus cases still growing rapidly, and no major correction seen in the bond market, the question on everyone's mind...
Wed, Jan 29 2020, 5:08 PM
It's fashionable to criticize Fed Chair Powell for negatively affecting the bond market during his customary press conference on Fed Announcement da...
Wed, Jan 29 2020, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in OctoberDecember indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic a...
Wed, Jan 29 2020, 9:39 AM
Imagine a world where the Federal Reserve was here to entertain and comment on sports betting rather than offer dry, carefully worded updates on monet...
Wed, Jan 29 2020, 9:25 AM
Bonds are holding below what had been a yield floor since mid-October. Yesterday raised some concern about the recently stronger trend reversing, but...
Tue, Jan 28 2020, 5:18 PM
Stocks moved higher today and bond yields did the same. Given that coronavirus has been the key consideration for both sides of the market, the movem...
Tue, Jan 28 2020, 8:44 AM
Bonds finally broke out of one of their prevailing ranges yesterday as Wuhan virus fears reached a new level. Some may roll their eyes at this sort o...
Mon, Jan 27 2020, 9:45 AM
Last week was really the first truly interesting week of 2020 (and arguably of the past several months) as far as the prevailing range in the bond mar...
Fri, Jan 24 2020, 6:06 PM
We had to wait all the way until January 24th of 2020, but bonds finally offered their first real shred of willingness to challenge the established ra...
Fri, Jan 24 2020, 10:49 AM
As the week comes to a close, we find bonds continuing to trickle toward the lower end of the range that has prevailed for nearly 3 months. In terms ...
Thu, Jan 23 2020, 9:13 AM
The bond market--widely expected to have been launching yields up and over 2% in 2020--is instead in the process of testing it's best levels since ear...
Wed, Jan 22 2020, 9:51 AM
You know things are bad when I resort to invoking Kierkegaard in bond market commentary, but that's what it's come to. Our quest to observe something...
Tue, Jan 21 2020, 10:22 AM
In addition to being a 4-day trading week due to yesterday's holiday, there's also a general lack of big-ticket economic data on tap. In fact, there ...
Fri, Jan 17 2020, 7:16 PM
We've seen a whole lot more movement in the bond market for a whole lot less motivation than we had this week. Back to back econ data shockers (Phill...
Fri, Jan 17 2020, 10:47 AM
Sometimes the market moves in clear response to a headline event or the scheduled release of an economic report. We have clear examples of this recen...
Thu, Jan 16 2020, 9:07 AM
Bonds continue to be well-contained by the prevailing consolidation range--a series of higher lows and static highs that's been in place in its curren...
Wed, Jan 15 2020, 3:42 PM
Today marked a rare mid-week "total dud" in terms of bond market momentum developments. This was made all the more striking by the fact that bonds ce...
Wed, Jan 15 2020, 9:17 AM
Bonds have been able to put in a few days with moderate movement both higher and lower in yield, but have generally been holding inside a range that i...
Tue, Jan 14 2020, 9:51 AM
More often than not during the past few months, a quick glance at the MBS Live dashboard reveals that MBS are making better gains than Treasuries. Is...
Mon, Jan 13 2020, 10:10 AM
Rather than serve to accelerate or crush the negative bond market momentum building at the end of 2019, 2020 has only compounded the broader sideways ...
Fri, Jan 10 2020, 10:02 AM
With NFP coming out just slightly weaker than expected and the bond market not undergoing much of a reaction in either direction, the rest of the day ...
Thu, Jan 9 2020, 5:26 PM
Do you like it when MBS outperform? How about when they underperform?
Are you a fan of bond market gains? Or do you prefer losses?
Would you l...
Thu, Jan 9 2020, 9:09 AM
The bond market and many other markets are still in the process of retracing the steps they took to price-in the risk of a new war in the Middle East....
Wed, Jan 8 2020, 4:46 PM
Top and bottom line: war is good for bonds/rates. The risk of war had increased after last week's US attack on the Iranian general and flared furthe...
Wed, Jan 8 2020, 9:01 AM
Last night was intense to say the least. Bonds surged to the best levels in more than a month, and were close to the best levels in nearly 3 months a...
Tue, Jan 7 2020, 4:21 PM
Treasuries were modestly weaker today, while MBS outperformed by holding mostly steady. That keeps the bond market well within its recent range as we...
Tue, Jan 7 2020, 9:55 AM
Heading into the end of 2019, the easiest way to look at the bond market was through the lense of "consolidation." In other words, the trading range ...
Mon, Jan 6 2020, 5:05 PM
The Treasury market was on the back foot today as investors lightened holdings ahead of a busy week of bond market supply. A renewed risk-tolerance w...
Mon, Jan 6 2020, 9:43 AM
For the bond market, almost the entirety of the 2nd half of 2019 was dominated by a consolidation pattern (a narrowing trend where periodic highs and ...
Fri, Jan 3 2020, 9:35 AM
We knew that volume and liquidity would be ramping back up after the holiday break (which is technically still going through this weekend for many) an...
Thu, Jan 2 2020, 9:09 AM
Bonds will be fully open today and tomorrow, but we're not quite back to what would be considered "normal trading" yet. There is no significant data ...
Tue, Dec 31 2019, 9:07 AM
Bonds close early today for New Year's Eve and are fully closed tomorrow for New Year's Day. There is no significant data on tap today although trade-...
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