Regarding rate movement, the bond market often does the Fed’s job for it, and so whatever the Fed’s Open Market Committee actually does is almost an afterthought. The partial U.S. Government shutdown is hurting economic activity, and companies like Newrez are posting and how the shutdown is impacting lending. The FHA Office of Single Family Housing released FHA INFO 2026-05 and some of its mortgage insurance programs “will be operational but with limited services. Under a funding lapse, FHA’s actions and decisions about the operations that continue are governed by the U.S. Constitution…” The shutdown and chatter from the hallways will be the focus of today’s Advisory Angle at 3PM ET where Sue Woodard brings the conversation straight from the floor of the MBA’s IMB Conference. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s features an interview with TLS' Will Pendleton and Calque’s Jeremy Foster on how the Buy Before You Sell model helps brokers remove timing and contingency risk for today’s buyers, and why transparent, well-integrated solutions like this are increasingly becoming essential tools for brokers navigating more competitive and complex housing markets.)

Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders

Transform the complicated home equity loan application process into a simple and seamless experience for your borrowers. With ICE Servicing Digital, servicers can help qualified customers more easily tap into their home’s equity with customized home equity alerts, automated valuations, and pre-filled applications, all within the same solution they use to manage their mortgage payments. By offering borrowers a streamlined process to see the potential in their home’s equity and start the application process to make the most of it, servicers can recapture more business and deepen customer relationships. Click here to learn how Servicing Digital can help simplify the home equity lending process and promote lifelong borrower retention.

What if your construction loans onboarded themselves? The handoff from origination to draw management is often a bottleneck of manual data entry and fragmented document transfers. Land Gorilla is solving that friction with their next-gen integration with Encompass® by ICE Mortgage Technology®. Built on the modern Encompass Partner Connect™ (EPC) framework, this automation-first approach enables loans to automatically move from your LOS to your construction loan management platform by instantly syncing data and eFolder documents. From AI-powered budget mapping to customizable data controls, this enhanced integration is a force multiplier for your construction administration team, removing a key bottleneck and ensuring your workflow remains audit-ready and scalable. Learn more here.

Strengthen your 2026 lineup with new HELOCs from the BETTER Wholesale Program! Price sensitive clients? Better offers low rates with no lender origination fees or application fees. Self-employed borrowers? We offer 12- & 24-month Bank Statement programs. If you’d like to make higher comp than most programs, earn up to 3 percent in BPC. What else? Up to 90 percent CLTV, 75 percent minimum draw, and up to a 10-year IO period on HELOC. Better Wholesale offers an easy digital pricing experience featuring an approval process that takes as little as 3 minutes, and its speed is backed up by a real underwriting process. Better’s program is open to brokers and lenders of all sizes: work with us and get lender-direct pricing! Visit Better Wholesale or contact Patrick Kandianis directly. Let’s do some SUPER loans in 2026!

Some loan officers have funded over $10 million in a single month using Uplist Recapture™, by activating opportunities already sitting in their closed-loan databases. Recapture™ is the most comprehensive and accurate refinance monitoring platform available, continuously scanning closed loans and delivering real-time refinance insights tied directly to live pricing. Recapture™ goes beyond basic alerts by confirming borrower status, validating property ownership, and flagging when a new loan has been recorded on a property, so originators know when a borrower has already refinanced and can adjust outreach accordingly. In the past 30 days alone, users have identified more than $8.5 billion in refinance opportunities using Recapture. By automating analysis and preparing borrower-ready presentations, Recapture™ gives loan officers confidence to reach out at the right moment with verified data. No spreadsheets. No guesswork. Just precise, high-intent opportunities that turn dormant databases into funded loans without adding noise to the workflow.

Real estate investors aren’t slowing down, and with Figure your HELOC offerings can keep pace. We’re one of the only HELOC lenders expanding eligibility to include qualifying LLC-held properties. In Q3 2025, real estate investors accounted for more home purchases than at any point in the past five years; 34 percent of the total market. Supporting HELOCs on properties held in LLCs isn’t industry standard, even as investor demand continues to climb. Figure helps to close that gap. The result: our partners can serve a broader, more sophisticated investor base, backed by Figure’s hallmark speed, efficiency, and ease of execution. This isn’t just a product tweak. It’s a shift toward how investors actually hold assets today, and a powerful way for partners to stand out. Curious how this aligns with your growth goals? Start the conversation here.

Servicing’s next chapter… are you prepared? Join LoanCare on February 5 at 2 p.m. ET for an insight-packed webinar that tackles today’s servicing realities head-on. This one-hour live event, “2026 Servicing Outlook: What's Coming Next?” features blue-chip panelists Kyle Enright, President, Achieve; Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist, MBA; Gwen Muse-Evans, President, GME Enterprises; Dave Vida, CRO, LoanCare and Dave Worrall, President, LoanCare. This session will explore how economic headwinds, rising regulatory complexity and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the servicing landscape. Hear what leading organizations are doing differently and walk away with insights that will inform your decisions in 2026. Reserve your seat today and stay ahead of what’s next in mortgage servicing.

Personal relationships have always been the edge for credit unions and community banks. But now, leading lenders are proving that “high tech” and “high touch” can work together. With Total Expert Customer Intelligence, smaller lenders are turning borrower data into deeper, more meaningful connections, surfacing real-time intent signals and life events that let loan officers engage exactly when it matters most. Organizations like Dart Bank and Tucson Federal Credit Union are seeing measurable results, driving millions in additional funded loans and record engagement rates. Discover how smaller lenders are using data-driven strategies to scale personalization, strengthen loyalty, and grow faster, without losing the human touch. Read our latest blog to learn how smaller lenders are making a bigger impact with Total Expert.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Thought Leadership: Rates are Driven by the Markets

Kevin Peranio reminds the industry that mortgage rates are still driven by markets, not politics. While Fed headlines generate noise, Treasury yields and MBS spreads continue to define what policy can realistically do. The takeaway is clear. Watch the bond market, not the commentary. In every cycle, understanding the mechanics behind rate movement matters more than reacting to the news.

Mortgage Standards Matter!

Why does the Innovation Investment Fee spark so much confusion? And why does it matter more than most lenders realize? The answer sits at the quiet center of the industry: standards that work best when you don’t notice them but cost you dearly when they fall apart. From “checkers checking the checkers” to hidden operational drag, the real ROI of MISMO isn’t flashy revenue, writes Brian Vieaux in the latest #VieauxPoint on the Chrisman Commentary website. Its friction avoided, trust restored, and time given back. The article pulls back the curtain on what MISMO actually does, why vendors aren’t the whole story, and why investing upstream may be the cheapest decision lenders can make.

Brian writes, “If you’d like to go deeper, and hear directly from industry executives on why their organizations support MISMO through the IIF, I invite you to join an upcoming webinar dedicated exclusively to this topic. Register here: Learn More About MISMO IIF.”

Strong Company Leadership is Important

Momentum is building among mortgage companies who are proactively strengthening their organization’s leadership team for this new lending environment. STRATMOR has been working with several firms to help them rethink their current org structures. This is a process that is all too often overlooked or ignored, particularly among small and mid-size firms. This process helps clarify individual leadership roles and responsibilities, personal strengths, spans of control and the personal interests. The output and recommendations are designed to help improve alignment, performance, engagement, and communication within the firm, all critical elements of a high functioning leadership team. Note: this work also helps build a roadmap to support potential succession opportunities and eventual retirements… another topic that is all too often ignored. Investment in tech is important but investment in people is critical. Contact STRATMOR, or connect with David Hrobon at the IMB Conference at Amelia Island this week to learn more.

If You’re Not at the IMB

The mood is good! Monday at IMB included a lot of chatter about credit costs (including MBA President Bob Broeksmit railing against them in his keynote speech). Attendance is solid, lenders outnumber vendors, and people in general are happy to see one another again before the fatigue of the conference circuit inevitably takes its toll later this year.

One cloud is the valuations of lenders. Bloomberg reported that mortgage company stocks tumbled Friday after PennyMac Financial Services Inc.’s reported profits that were significantly below Wall Street’s expectations, dampening the outlook for other lenders as the industry is squeezed by increasing competition.

“The company’s shares closed down 33 percent at $99.92 on Friday, wiping out nearly $2.6 billion from their market value, after its fourth quarter per-share profit came in at $1.97, compared with the more than $3 expected by analysts. The miss was driven by borrowers paying off their loans faster than expected, which exerted a drag on its income. ‘The company noted it was surprised by the level of paydowns in the period, and tight competition is driving tighter margins and challenging the recapture effort,’ BTIG analyst Eric Hagen wrote in a note. The weakness spilled over to other mortgage lenders, with shares of Rocket Companies Inc. and UWM Holdings Corporation sinking 14 percent. Onity Group Inc. fell 5.7 percent, loanDepot Inc. dropped 6.4 percent.”

Capital Markets

Markets have largely shrugged off last week’s Fed decision, instead reacting more sharply to the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, given his hawkish track record and conservative stance on rates and the balance sheet (a Fed more focused on inflation control could ultimately support lower long-term yields). February kicked off with stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data, including a sharp upside surprise in the ISM index that pushed yields to new recent highs, particularly at the long end.

The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey showed tighter standards for commercial lending but mixed demand trends, with little change expected in lending conditions through 2026. For now, attention has shifted back to incoming labor market data, which is likely to be the primary driver of Treasury yields, mortgage rates, and expectations for the timing of future rate cuts. Speaking of which, the BLS announced a delay to January’s jobs report due to the government shutdown.

Treasury weakness reflects seasonal pressures and a knee-jerk reaction to Kevin Warsh’s nomination, driven less by hawk-versus-dove debates than by expectations that he will avoid using the Fed’s balance sheet to cap long-term yields. Markets now see policy as firmly data-dependent, with modest easing priced through June, a March cut largely off the table, and labor data set to be the decisive factor for Warsh’s first FOMC meeting. In the meantime, investors are leaning more heavily on private data amid strong financial conditions, elevated asset prices, and lingering uncertainty around growth, tariffs, and the resilience of the U.S. consumer, all of which reinforce the Fed’s patient stance on further rate cuts.

The U.S. MBS market started 2026 on strong footing, delivering 52 basis points of excess return in January, one of the best January performances in nearly four decades. The excess return was supported by a stable yield curve, low volatility, and steady issuance. Ginnie Mae 30-year securities led the sector with a 69-basis point excess return, extending their outperformance over the past three months, while Fannie Mae 15-year paper lagged amid a sharp increase in supply. Spreads tightened across 30-year products, valuations are now near their tightest since early 2022, and February’s historically favorable seasonality adds a supportive backdrop despite limited room for further tightening. Within the stack, performance favored select coupons and low pay-up spec stories, while prepayment activity is expected to remain contained, with higher coupons and reactive recent vintages continuing to drive most of the action.

Today’s economic calendar is already under way with remarks from Richmond Fed President Barkin. Later today brings Redbook same store sales and some short-duration Treasury auctions. JOLTS for December were supposed to be reported but have been cancelled due to the partial government shutdown. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia was out with its latest decision, surprising markets by holding its cash target rate at 3.60 percent. Quarterly earnings also continue from wall street. We begin Tuesday with Agency MBS prices little changed from Monday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.57, and the 10-year yielding 4.30 after closing yesterday at 4.28 percent.