No Easy Victory For The Consolidation
We began yesterday by counting all of the bond market head fakes seen since the Fed's first notable revision to the policy outlook in September 2021. At the time, there 7. Now there are 8. At least that's how the count would stand if we were forced to call it today. The thing is that the type of consolidation we're looking for can take weeks to play out. Today's weakness makes it less likely that we're seeing such a consolidation, but it doesn't completely eliminate the possibility.
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm
Jobless Claims 187 v 212 f'cast
Durable Goods -2.2 vs -0.5 f'cast
Steady selling throughout overnight session. 10yr yield up 9bps at 2.381. MBS down 3/8ths of a point. No individual, standout market movers.
A bit of resilience during domestic hours, but still in weaker territory. MBS down 10 ticks (0.31) and 10yr yields up 6bps at 2.348.
No major change from the last update. The entire day has been a slow, steady correction from the overnight sell-off with the correction done at noon and sideways momentum since then. 10yr up 5.5bps at 2.344 and MBS still down 10 ticks (0.31).