With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a bearing on the Fed's debate between a 75bp and 100bp hike at the upcoming July meeting. With a 1.0 vs 0.8 result, the market didn't really get a definitive verdict. Yes, it's stronger, but not by enough as to make the Fed's choice obvious. It was also not enough to push inflation-adjusted sales into positive territory. In short, it provided additional fuel for the notion that recession may take the reins from the rate hike regime in the 2nd half of 2022. Longer-term rates (like mortgages and 10yr Treasuries) are better able to benefit from such things than 2yr yields or shorter-term Fed Funds Futures.
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Retail Sales................. 1.0 vs 0.8 f'cast -0.1 prev
Import Prices............... 0.2 vs 0.7 f'cast, 0.5 prev
NY Fed Manufacturing... 11.1 vs -2.0 f'cast -
Industrial Production -0.2 v +0.1 f'cast, 0.0 prev
Consumer Sentiment 51.1 vs 49.9 f'cast
5yr inflation expectations 2.8 vs 3.1 prev, lowest in a year
consumer expectations lowest since 1980
Slightly stronger overnight. Briefly weaker after Retail Sales data, but now back into positive territory with 10yr down 3bps at 2.928 and MBS up almost an eighth at 99-31 (99.97).
2-way volatility all morning. Most recently, lower inflation expectations took bonds from red to green at 10am. 10yr is down 2.2bps at 2.936 and MBS are up 1 tick (0.03).
Once again, bonds have managed to remain flat for the entire afternoon. 10yr yields are right in line with previous levels (2.93 currently) and MBS are 6 ticks (.19) higher at 100-02 (100.06).
MBS Market Alerts
