Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back

Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to post a fairly calm trading day against the prevailing backdrop of generally higher volatility. Today was such a day. The most helpful catalyst was an absence of any major war-related headlines and associated oil price volatility. That said, it's a near certainty that war-related volatility will be back in the coming week. 

Econ Data / Events
    • Average earnings mm (Apr)
      • 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev
    • Non Farm Payrolls (Apr)
      • 115K vs 62K f'cast, 178K prev
    • Participation Rate (Apr)
      • 61.8% vs -- f'cast, 61.9% prev
    • Unemployment rate mm (Apr)
      • 4.3% vs 4.3% f'cast, 4.3% prev
    • Consumer Sentiment (May)
      • 48.2 vs 49.5 f'cast, 49.8 prev
    • Sentiment: 1y Inflation (May)
      • 4.5% vs -- f'cast, 4.7% prev
    • Sentiment: 5y Inflation (May)
      • 3.4% vs -- f'cast, 3.5% prev
Market Movement Recap
08:32 AM

No major reaction to jobs report. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.375

10:46 AM

Slightly stronger but leveling off.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.356

02:13 PM

MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.356

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