Tue, May 4 2021, 9:04 AM
Have you heard the one about Ferrari moving the bond market? Well, now you have. In an apparent mystery move before the start of the domestic sessio...
Mon, May 3 2021, 4:01 PM
Logical Reaction to Data Sets Stage For Interesting Week
The week began with bond markets reacting to weaker...
Mon, May 3 2021, 9:50 AM
One of the most notable themes of the past year is the relative unwillingness on the part of the bond market to make a big fuss over individual econom...
Fri, Apr 30 2021, 6:08 PM
Uneventful Month-End Friday. Next Week Could Be Different
Bonds recovered modestly but respectably after st...
Fri, Apr 30 2021, 10:02 AM
Bonds are starting the day in decent shape with 10yr yields just slightly lower than yesterday's latest levels. The bigger story is MBS outperformanc...
Thu, Apr 29 2021, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. Virtually every lender began the day with slightly higher rates, but most offered mid-day im...
Thu, Apr 29 2021, 3:59 PM
Awesome Bounce Back But Still a Cautionary Tale
Bonds started the day quite a bit weaker after several piece...
Thu, Apr 29 2021, 9:09 AM
Bonds started the day quite a bit weaker after several pieces of EU econ data came in much stronger than expected. Domestic data hasn't done anything...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 4:40 PM
The Federal Reserve released a new policy announcement today. This is one of the 8 times per year where the Fed can opt to change "rates," or adjust i...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 4:29 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Digesting Friendly Fed Message
Bonds were slightly cautious ahead of the Fed announ...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 9:29 AM
Today's Fed announcement isn't likely to contain any major revelations for the bond market, nor to cause any significant volatility. Logical conclusi...
Tue, Apr 27 2021, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates have fallen almost every single day in April. By the end of last week, that meant the average lender was offering the lowest convention...
Tue, Apr 27 2021, 3:30 PM
Another Bad 7yr Auction Day, Even If We Can't Blame The Auction
Bonds were feeling a bit defensive ahead of ...
Tue, Apr 27 2021, 9:56 AM
7yr Treasury auctions haven't been great for bonds in 2021. Every time we've had one, bonds have sold off. In fact, the late February example proved...
Fri, Apr 23 2021, 2:49 PM
Winning Streak Thwarted, But Not By Much
This morning's Day Ahead pondered the possibility of a 4th straight...
Thu, Apr 22 2021, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels since March 2nd or 3rd (depending on the lender) yesterday and today they fell just a bit more. Most borrower...
Thu, Apr 22 2021, 4:01 PM
Forget the ECB; Taxes Saved Bonds Today
First off, bonds didn't really need "saving." They were only modest...
Thu, Apr 22 2021, 10:04 AM
Today's only real significant market mover is/was the ECB Announcement and press conference. They weren't expected to change policy, but markets were...
Wed, Apr 21 2021, 3:39 PM
Last Thursday was the best day for mortgage rates in more than a month, and while they bounced back up on Thursday afternoon, they've been falling mod...
Wed, Apr 21 2021, 3:28 PM
4th Straight Day Inside Last Thursday's Range
Last Thursday was the best rally day we've seen in months and ...
Wed, Apr 21 2021, 10:04 AM
There are no major events on the econ calendar today and no compelling market movers in play so far this week--at least not for bonds. Stocks, on the...
Tue, Apr 20 2021, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in more than a month last Thursday, but reversed course later that afternoon. With that, it looked like rates w...
Tue, Apr 20 2021, 4:21 PM
Decent Day For Bonds as Stocks Sell
A good, old-fashioned "risk-off" rally has been hard to come by in 2021,...
Tue, Apr 20 2021, 9:39 AM
How can you avoid reading this prose when the headline is so gripping? Slow trading! Sideways grind! Lack of obvious near-term inspiration! If we'...
Mon, Apr 19 2021, 3:19 PM
Slow Start to a Potentially Slow Week.
Bonds did a good enough job of holding their ground today thus leavin...
Mon, Apr 19 2021, 10:02 AM
When the most recent leg of US bond market weakness began in February, US 10yr yields were around 1.1% and German Bund yields (effectively the "EU 10y...
Fri, Apr 16 2021, 5:21 PM
Still a Decent Week Despite Friday Slide
Thursday morning was exceptionally strong for bonds--perhaps too st...
Fri, Apr 16 2021, 10:06 AM
For virtually all of 2021 (and much of Q4 2020), we've been tracking an uptrend in Treasury yields. As the overall move grew to a size rarely seen in...
Thu, Apr 15 2021, 4:50 PM
It's no secret that mortgage rates had a rough month in March and a rough year in general. The average lender raised 30yr fixed rates by roughly half ...
Thu, Apr 15 2021, 3:56 PM
Snowball Rally For Bonds! Why? And What Next?
Heading into today, we expected the bond market to ignore po...
Thu, Apr 15 2021, 10:19 AM
Heading into today, we expected the bond market to ignore potentially stronger Retail Sales data. Not only did bonds overlook the big beat (9.8 vs 5....
Wed, Apr 14 2021, 4:44 PM
Super Sideways Ahead of Retail Sales
Retail Sales used to be a big ticket report, but like so many others, h...
Wed, Apr 14 2021, 10:09 AM
Yesterday was good for bonds with 10yr yields covering more ground toward lower yields during domestic trading hours than any other day since February...
Tue, Apr 13 2021, 4:04 PM
Slow and steady wins the race, and mortgage rates have been making slow, steady progress back down from recent long-term highs seen at the end of Marc...
Tue, Apr 13 2021, 4:03 PM
Strong Showing With Help From Vaccine Drama and a Solid Bond Auction
The day began with bonds falling back t...
Tue, Apr 13 2021, 9:01 AM
It's a sign of the times that the bond market responded with a modest rally following a stronger reading on CPI and a looming record-size 30yr bond au...
Mon, Apr 12 2021, 4:04 PM
Bonds Look Past Weaker Treasury Auction
Treasury auction have been more important than normal so far in 2021...
Mon, Apr 12 2021, 9:43 AM
Three weeks ago, the bond market made its first attempt to rally toward lower yields after ending the previous week bouncing at a ceiling of 1.75% in ...
Fri, Apr 9 2021, 4:40 PM
Respectable Recovery After Morning Drama
"Drama" may be a bit of an overstatement, but bonds were weak enoug...
Fri, Apr 9 2021, 10:50 AM
Yesterday's closing commentary, entitled "Stronger Case For Stability But Not Complacency" acknowledged the reassuringly sideways vibe offered by the ...
Thu, Apr 8 2021, 4:02 PM
Mortgage Rates had another decent day on Thursday with the average lender offering modestly better terms compared to yesterday. Improvements continue ...
Thu, Apr 8 2021, 4:00 PM
Stronger Case For Stability, But Not Complacency
With today's solid gains, this week becomes the best argume...
Thu, Apr 8 2021, 9:46 AM
2 weeks ago, we talked about 2021's Thursday curse. It was finally broken last week. Today's early gains mean we may be looking at a second consecut...
Wed, Apr 7 2021, 4:33 PM
Mortgage Rates have been doing pretty well so far in April. They bounced at long-term highs on March 31st (matching the highs from 2 weeks prior), but...
Wed, Apr 7 2021, 4:30 PM
No Reaction to Fed Minutes (Or Anything Else For That Matter)
It's been a light week in terms of scheduled d...
Wed, Apr 7 2021, 10:32 AM
The longer-term rising rate trend kicked into higher gear in February. After several false starts, bonds are in the midst of their best attempt yet a...
Tue, Apr 6 2021, 4:25 PM
Things have been bad for mortgage rates in 2021. That assertion has nothing to do with the outright level of mortgage rates--indeed, that's still very...
Tue, Apr 6 2021, 4:25 PM
Evidence For a Ceiling Continues to Accumulate
All the normal disclaimers are in order:
- This is a rising...
Tue, Apr 6 2021, 10:26 AM
Global financial markets are entirely open today for the first time since last Thursday, thus giving us a chance to see if this month's momentum will ...
