CPI Reaction Lives Up To The Hype. Fed on Deck

On most any other day, if MBS are going out the door with a 5/8ths of a point rally and 10yr yields are down 10bps, it's been a very good day.  To be fair, it has been a great day for the bond market, but a majority of mortgage lenders repriced for the worse at least once.  Why? Markets were so anxious to digest and react to the CPI data that the rally got ahead of itself out of the gate.  CPI beat forecasts by 0.1%.  That's worth a lot in this environment, but traders are justified to question whether it's worth the rally seen this morning (MBS up well over a point and 10yr yields down roughly 20bps)--especially with a rather important Fed announcement, press conference, and dot plot coming out on Wednesday afternoon. 

Econ Data / Events
    • Monthly core CPI
      • 0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev
    • Monthly Headline CPI
      • 0.1 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev
    • Core Annual CPI
      • 6.0 v 6.1 f'cast, 6.3 prev
    • Annual Headline CPI
      • 7.1 vs 7.3 f'cast, 7.7 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:56 AM

Big rally after CPI comes in cooler.  10yr down 14bps at 3.48.  MBS up more than 3/4 in 5.0 coupons, but just over half a point in 5.5 coupons.

10:50 AM

Dialing back from the highs now with MBS down roughly 3/8ths but still up about 3/4ths on the day.  10yr yield still down almost 15bps at 3.47, but up from lows of 3.42.

01:11 PM

Weaker after the 30yr bond auction, but still nicely stronger on the day.  MBS up roughly half a point but down more than half a point from the highs.  10yr yields down almost 12bps but up 8bps from the lows (currently 3.50%).

03:36 PM

Fairly sideways and drifty for the past few hours.  MBS recovered a bit, now up a bit more than half a point.  10yr yields near post-data highs of 3.516, but still down 10bps on the day.

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