Fri, Sep 24 2021, 3:37 PM
Range Breakout or New Trend Channel?
It was an interesting trading session in the bond market as Treasury yi...
Fri, Sep 24 2021, 10:47 AM
As early as 4 months ago, we'd been eyeing late September as do or die time for the low rate environment. By early September, we had a very clear pic...
Thu, Sep 23 2021, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates jumped substantially higher today as global markets reacted to yesterday's Fed announcement. But that's really just scratching the surf...
Thu, Sep 23 2021, 2:41 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off?
It's not nearly as surprising to see bond yields breaking technical cei...
Thu, Sep 23 2021, 10:03 AM
Wednesday's reaction to the Fed was essentially a non-reaction with yields ending the day very close to pre-Fed levels. Traders were more willing to ...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 5:31 PM
Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady today as the bond market reacted to a new policy announcement from the Fed. Perhaps "reacted" is the wrong wor...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 4:31 PM
Powell Effectively Confirms November Taper Barring NFP Catastrophe
Bonds reacted well to the initial Fed ann...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 2:01 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 10:02 AM
We've been pining for this particular Fed day for weeks, at least. In fact, as early as June 1st, we pointed out that Fed speakers seemed to suggest ...
Tue, Sep 21 2021, 3:54 PM
"Inside Day" Placeholder Ahead of Wednesday's Main Event
The AM commentary revisited and reiterated the cons...
Tue, Sep 21 2021, 2:24 PM
By the end of last week, mortgage rates moved up to match their highest levels in 2 months. After a modest recovery yesterday, today's rates are littl...
Tue, Sep 21 2021, 9:54 AM
Trading ranges and consolidation patterns can make for tedious discussion when they're well-behaved for weeks on end. We began discussing the current...
Mon, Sep 20 2021, 4:18 PM
Surprise Snowball Rally as Stocks Swoon Over Global Risks
When it comes to stocks vs bonds, pundits generall...
Mon, Sep 20 2021, 9:53 AM
Evergrande is a Chinese real estate company that has been circling the drain for months. During that time, press reports increasingly suggest that Ev...
Fri, Sep 17 2021, 4:33 PM
Traders Move to Sidelines Ahead of Fed Announcement
September's big Fed announcement doesn't hit until next ...
Fri, Sep 17 2021, 10:07 AM
The headline is a bit dramatic, but not untrue. 10yr yields were as high as 1.351 yesterday--just a moderate day of weakness away from the 2-month hi...
Thu, Sep 16 2021, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again today, bringing the average lender to the worst levels since last Thursday. There are a few exceptions to that due t...
Thu, Sep 16 2021, 3:54 PM
Uneventful Afternoon After Strong Data Sends Yields Higher
Today's key development was the duo of much stron...
Thu, Sep 16 2021, 9:08 AM
Bonds are starting the day on the back foot as Retail Sales rose 0.7% despite a median forecast of -0.8. The Philly Fed numbers also surged past 18.8...
Wed, Sep 15 2021, 4:28 PM
Mortgage rates began the day with promise. Actually, it was the underlying bond market (which largely dictates mortgage rates) was sending promising s...
Wed, Sep 15 2021, 4:08 PM
Sideways Vibes Won't Give Up Just Yet
Bonds made a move yesterday with yields breaking below the lower bound...
Wed, Sep 15 2021, 9:57 AM
Yesterday's most notable accomplishment for the bond market was the breakout of the prevailing consolidation range (aka "pennant," to use a technical ...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 7:04 PM
arlier this year, the FHFA and Treasury amended Treasury's preferred stock repurchase agreements (PSPAs) to put limits on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 4:13 PM
Bonds Rally After CPI Gives Fed The Week Off
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big tick...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 3:17 PM
Mortgage rates started the day modestly lower , but many lenders ended up offering mid-day improvements in response to market conditions. When it come...
Tue, Sep 14 2021, 9:34 AM
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was one of the only big ticket economic reports left before next week's Fed announcement, and perhaps the only one ...
Mon, Sep 13 2021, 4:20 PM
Quiet Summertime Monday Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
Treasuries have experienced more of the volatility in...
Mon, Sep 13 2021, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates were fairly flat to start the new week. This leaves the average lender in the high 2% range for top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenar...
Mon, Sep 13 2021, 10:06 AM
There is a smattering of data in the week ahead with Tuesday's CPI and Thursday's Retail Sales reports being the headliners. Data is merely a "potent...
Fri, Sep 10 2021, 7:51 PM
Rates are dictated by the bond market and bonds are flashing a warning sign about volatility on the horizon. In other words, rates look like they're r...
Fri, Sep 10 2021, 4:00 PM
Bond Weakness Reinforces The Consolidation Pattern
Bonds were weaker overnight and the selling trend continu...
Fri, Sep 10 2021, 9:26 AM
Bonds are starting the day in moderately weaker territory. In so doing, 10yr yields are rejecting the opportunity to break below the 1.30% technical ...
Thu, Sep 9 2021, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today, with many lenders making it back to the levels seen after last Friday's jobs report. In week-over-week terms, ...
Thu, Sep 9 2021, 3:38 PM
Strong Auction Trifecta Helps Bonds Hold The Range
The day began with a relatively bond-friendly European Ce...
Thu, Sep 9 2021, 10:50 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) was widely expected to do "something" to tighten up its PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) in today's policy a...
Wed, Sep 8 2021, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today after starting the week by jumping noticeably higher yesterday. Today's gains came courtesy of global growth concerns...
Wed, Sep 8 2021, 3:44 PM
10yr Auction Easily Helps Rates Hold The Range. What Next?
Today's 10yr auction was exceptionally strong. ...
Wed, Sep 8 2021, 9:50 AM
Yesterday marked the weakest weekly opener in several months as bonds built on negative momentum following last week's jobs report and positioned them...
Tue, Sep 7 2021, 3:50 PM
3 Times in a Row: Auction Week Bringing The Weakness
Bonds have been consolidating in roughly a 17bp range c...
Tue, Sep 7 2021, 2:43 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly highe r to begin the holiday-shortened week. With Labor day being a bank holiday, mortgage lenders were closed yesterday...
Tue, Sep 7 2021, 9:18 AM
After being closed for Labor Day yesterday, the bond market is noticeably weaker to start the new week. In the overnight session alone, yields rose e...
Fri, Sep 3 2021, 4:26 PM
MBS Outperformance is Part of the Answer to Today's Riddle
When does an obviously weak jobs report result in...
Fri, Sep 3 2021, 11:23 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 235k versus a median forecast of 728k. Poll a hundred market strategists about the likely market impact and 99 of them wo...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 4:05 PM
Particularly Calm Before a Particularly Important NFP
The widest trading range of the week has been 4.5bps (...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 2:51 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on bonds. Bonds take cues from economic data (among other things). And tomorrow's big jobs report is the most consi...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 10:10 AM
Ah, the Thursday before a Friday jobs report--much like a Forest Gump box of chocolates. They're typically fairly boring with movement that tends to ...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 5:07 PM
Much like yesterday, mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher , depending on the lender. And once again, the differences in pricing strategies...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 5:06 PM
Bonds Waiting For More Relevant Inspiration
Today's ADP employment data missed the mark by quite a bit. If ...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 11:00 AM
The stated goal of the ADP Employment Report is to predict the final revision of the US government's non-farm payroll number. Assessing its efficacy ...
Tue, Aug 31 2021, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. The differences in pricing strategies stem from the timing of changes...
