Fri, Mar 25 2022, 1:51 PM
Thursday may have seen some bond market weakness, but it was the kind we could tolerate considering yields didn't make new highs on the week. In that...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 3:54 PM
No Easy Victory For The Consolidation
We began yesterday by counting all of the bond market head fakes seen ...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 3:28 PM
Tuesday (March 22) saw mortgage rates at their highest levels since late 2018 with top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios being quoted 4.75% by th...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 11:29 AM
We began yesterday by counting all of the bond market head fakes seen since the Fed's first notable revision to the policy outlook in September 2021. ...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 4:34 PM
The month of March has amounted to a very long night for the mortgage market with rates not only moving higher at one of the fastest paces on record, ...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 4:17 PM
Best Rally in Weeks. Should We Care?
Days like Wednesday remind us of days like February 11th. At the time...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 10:45 AM
When yields/rates have risen as much as we've seen so far in 2022, and especially when the 10yr hit the 2.40% target that we didn't expect to see quit...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 7:27 PM
Rates added to the record-breaking move higher today. The carnage has now earned early 2022 the dubious distinction of being the biggest 3-month rate...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 4:28 PM
Snowball Selling Pushes 10yr Toward 2.4%, Mortgage Rates to High 4's
The global market jumped on the bandwag...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 12:16 PM
At times in the QE era, the markets have rushed to adjust to a rapidly evolving understanding of the Fed's policy intentions. At other times, the Fed...
Mon, Mar 21 2022, 6:27 PM
From Bad to Worse as Powell Doubles Down on Policy Shift
Things were already fairly ugly this morning as the bond market opted to pay no attenti...
Mon, Mar 21 2022, 5:22 PM
By the end of last week, the bond market was sending hopeful signs about the recent rate spike potentially leveling off. It had done the same thing...
Mon, Mar 21 2022, 9:05 AM
For two Fridays in a row, bonds have leveled off in a way that offered some hope for consolidation and stability. And for two Mondays in a row, the w...
Fri, Mar 18 2022, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market, and as of the middle of this week, bonds had lost a good amount of ground every day for 8 st...
Fri, Mar 18 2022, 4:20 PM
Another Shot at Consolidation. Is This Time Different?
Last Friday had a fairly classic "leveling-off" vibe ...
Fri, Mar 18 2022, 12:23 PM
With this week's Fed announcement in the rearview and no other earth-shattering developments in data or geopolitics, bonds are left to the sort of con...
Thu, Mar 17 2022, 4:51 PM
It was potentially a very boring or interesting day for mortgage rates, depending on where you get your news and how tuned in you were to yesterda...
Thu, Mar 17 2022, 4:17 PM
Mixed Day For Bonds; MBS Outperform
Today's trading session had a bit an anticlimactic "day after" vibe foll...
Thu, Mar 17 2022, 11:09 AM
Last week was ugly for the bond market even though much of the ugliness was due to the immense rally of the previous week. By Friday, rates were able...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market, and bonds have lost ground every day for 8 straight days. Today was merely the latest in t...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 4:20 PM
Big Swoon After Fed Announcement, Big Recovery Later
Today delivered on the typical Fed day promise of big m...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 2:01 PM
Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in rec...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 11:10 AM
We already know that tapering has wrapped up as of last week and that the Fed will continue to reinvest proceeds from the existing bond portfolio unti...
Tue, Mar 15 2022, 4:44 PM
Annoying Little Head-Fake, But Don't Abandon All Hope
Just when the bond market looks like it will throw you...
Tue, Mar 15 2022, 1:11 PM
Coming off of yesterday's gigantic selling spree, bonds caught a break in the overnight session after briefly hitting even higher highs (10yr topped o...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 4:28 PM
If you received a mortgage rate quote any time in the past few days or weeks, unless it was at the end of the business day on Monday, March 14th, you'...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 4:10 PM
What's Up With Today's Massive Sell-Off In Bonds?
Bonds tanked hard today. Losses were in place right from ...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 10:38 AM
If anything, fighting intensified over the weekend in Ukraine. This is something that would typically drive more safe-haven buying in the bond market...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 5:58 PM
The Fed will hike its key policy rate for the first time since 2018 next week, but mortgage rates aren't waiting to move higher. By the end of this w...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 3:49 PM
Uncharacteristically Quiet, But Still Slightly Weaker
Bonds started the overnight session stronger, but lost...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 11:48 AM
Today marks the conclusion of the Fed's post-covid balance sheet expansion. In other words. Tapering is complete. Before covid, the Fed enacted qua...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 4:00 PM
Bonds Not Catching a Break From Strong Auction or Lower Oil Prices
Oil prices fell today today and the bond ...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 3:36 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again for Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. An industry standard report dating back to the 70s, Freddie's s...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 9:39 AM
The bond market is looking past Ukraine and economic data this morning to focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The reaction in EU b...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit new multi-year highs in February. At the time, you'd have to go back to the first half of 2019 to see anything higher...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 4:31 PM
Hopeful Markets and Big Corporate Deal Pushes Yields Higher
Stocks and bond yields moved higher in unison to...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 12:49 PM
As we've discussed over the past 2 days, the bond market remains stuck between a rock and a hard place. If things get worse in Ukraine, commodity pri...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 4:36 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds are having a tough time in the past few days. Bonds such as US Treasuries often benefit from terrible t...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 4:22 PM
Struggling to Find a Rate-Friendly Narrative
Bonds sold off early in the overnight session and then more sha...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 11:39 AM
Things aren't always as simple as they seem. Let's hope that's the case for bonds, because things seem tragically simple when we try to reconcile the...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 4:15 PM
Bonds Struggling With Inflation Implications
Although the bond market is still a net beneficiary from the wa...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates have experienced significant volatility so far in 2022. At first, this was almost exclusively a function of the Federal Reserve or, ...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 10:05 AM
The week is getting off to a weaker start. Bonds rallied in the first hour of overnight trading but began to lose ground steadily after that. By the...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 8:46 PM
Financial markets were already dealing with rapidly evolving Fed policy shifts, a big jump in rates, and a big drop in stocks. But after Russia invade...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 4:07 PM
Yields Near Recent Lows Heading Into Another Highly Uncertain Weekend
Bonds began the overnight session with...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 11:46 AM
As Russia continues waging war on Ukraine and wage growth disappointed in this morning's jobs report, bonds are rallying back toward the best levels o...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 4:47 PM
The first 2 days of the week marked the best 48 hour stint for mortgage rates since March 2020, and one of the best on record. Such victories require...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 4:14 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Mid-Week Rout
Any additional weakness after Wednesday's blood-letting would have ad...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 12:42 PM
There was more than a shred of hope in the overnight trading session as bonds were able to make modest gains despite slightly stronger stocks and anot...
Wed, Mar 2 2022, 4:56 PM
On a normal week, we can follow day to day movement in rates and point out how far behind the times the week-to-week changes are. This time around, t...
