Mon, Nov 15 2021, 3:44 PM
After hitting the lowest levels in over a month last Tuesday, mortgage rates have been moving higher fairly quickly each day since then. Most of the d...
Mon, Nov 15 2021, 3:44 PM
Defensive Until Further Notice
Bonds sold off early and often to begin the new week. Selling pressure rampe...
Mon, Nov 15 2021, 9:46 AM
Bonds were unchanged on Friday after selling off aggressively on Thursday. At first glance, that could be taken as confirmation of the weakness, but ...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 4:48 PM
Lots of Apparent Drama For an "Unchanged" Day
The morning's headline proclaimed that today was essentially a...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 4:26 PM
Several sources for mortgage rate data are doing consumers a major disservice this week. At least two of them are claiming that the average top tier 3...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 10:56 AM
The typical federal holiday plays nicely with the bond market. Most involve a full closure on a Monday or Friday and are often preceded by a "half da...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates managed to drift down to their best levels in more than a month by yesterday, but the good times ended today... abruptly ! Interest rat...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 3:32 PM
Big Nasty Sell-Off Sends a Message About The Range
Steady selling in the morning followed by heavy selling a...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 9:42 AM
In econo-jargon, the word "real" typically refers to "inflation-adjusted." So when we say that "real 10yr yields" hit record lows this morning, it co...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower for the 5th straight day, bringing them to the best levels since late September or early October, depending on t...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 3:36 PM
Weaker Treasury Auction, But Only After a Strong Morning
In and of itself, the10yr Treasury auction (arguabl...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 8:58 AM
Today's MBS charts initially made it seem like prices had fallen versus yesterday's latest levels. In a way, they did, but the right side of the char...
Mon, Nov 8 2021, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates are directly based on trading levels in the bond market, so it's almost a given that rates will move in the same direction as bond yiel...
Mon, Nov 8 2021, 4:27 PM
Mixed Signals As Holiday-Shortened Week Begins
Bonds lost some ground today. 10yr yields were up roughly 4b...
Mon, Nov 8 2021, 9:18 AM
As far as most news outlets are concerned, Friday's passage of the infrastructure bill is the big news for Monday morning. At one time, the bond mark...
Fri, Nov 5 2021, 6:53 PM
This week, the Fed announced a reduction in its bond buying. In separate news, the big jobs report was much stronger than expected. Both of these even...
Fri, Nov 5 2021, 3:24 PM
Why In The World Did Bonds Rally So Much Today?
Bonds embarked on a surprisingly swift move in a surprising ...
Fri, Nov 5 2021, 10:05 AM
Friday begins with a stronger-than-expected jobs report, including big positive revisions to the past few months and another drop in the unemployment ...
Thu, Nov 4 2021, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates fell today as markets decompressed following yesterday's announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding the reduction of its bond buyi...
Thu, Nov 4 2021, 4:13 PM
Why Bonds Really Rallied on Thursday
Thursday's big bond rally was not a foregone conclusion destined to fol...
Thu, Nov 4 2021, 9:54 AM
Today's early trading range for the bond market was anyone's guess yesterday afternoon. Sometimes overseas markets have a different reaction to US mon...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 4:27 PM
Bonds Take Tapering Mostly In Stride
Today was the day that the Fed announced a reduction in the pace of its...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 4:07 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today after the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in its rate-friendly bond buying program. Actually, to be fair, rate...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 2:05 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 9:40 AM
The Fed has been more than clear that it will announce a reduction in bond purchases today. This has been part of the bond market's destiny from the ...
Tue, Nov 2 2021, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates began the day moderately lower compared to yesterday's latest levels. The size of the move depends on the time of day in question due t...
Tue, Nov 2 2021, 3:45 PM
Does Precedent Matter For 2021 Taper Announcement?
Bonds rallied today, depending on when and where you look...
Tue, Nov 2 2021, 8:58 AM
The extent to which markets are expecting a Fed taper announcement tomorrow cannot be overstated. In fact, if the Fed announcement were reduced to a ...
Mon, Nov 1 2021, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today despite an absence of significant movement in the bond market. In general, when bonds improve, rates fall ...
Mon, Nov 1 2021, 4:02 PM
Bonds Battle Back After Slightly Weaker Start
There are bigger-picture, thematic trends in the bond market a...
Mon, Nov 1 2021, 9:13 AM
Any rate watcher who lived through 2013 has not-so-fond memories of the taper tantrum. (For those of you who weren't tuned in, that refers to the inc...
Fri, Oct 29 2021, 5:53 PM
For anyone following interest rates very closely in 2013, the taper tantrum is not easily forgotten. It describes the bond market's knee-jerk response...
Fri, Oct 29 2021, 2:53 PM
Nice Recovery as Month-End Trades Roll In
Month-end trading isn't always helpful for bonds. Indeed, that's ...
Fri, Oct 29 2021, 9:56 AM
It's an interesting morning in the bond market--at least for those of us who are interesting both in general rate momentum and nitty gritty MBS moveme...
Thu, Oct 28 2021, 4:45 PM
Mortgage rates finally ended this week's winning streak today. In light of the general upward trend in rates over the past month, bond yields (which t...
Thu, Oct 28 2021, 4:30 PM
Rally Week Finds Its Limit After ECB And Auction
Bonds were having a great week by the end of the day on Wed...
Thu, Oct 28 2021, 10:54 AM
From armchair economists to respected bond market analysts, there was a lot of "chatter" about the potential for today's GDP reading to come in much l...
Wed, Oct 27 2021, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates are in recovery mode so far this week. Today brought the best improvements so far with the average lender's rates falling back to the l...
Wed, Oct 27 2021, 9:06 AM
Bonds managed to make positive headway for a third straight trading day on Tuesday, but the gains weren't enough to break yields below the prevailing ...
Tue, Oct 26 2021, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates hit 6 month highs by the end of last week, but they've been cautiously recovering since then. The rebound traces a similar pattern in t...
Tue, Oct 26 2021, 4:08 PM
Another Green Day, But Can We Trust It?
Bonds were briefly weaker mid-morning, but rallied back to close at ...
Tue, Oct 26 2021, 9:28 AM
At the start of the trading session, Treasuries have the distinction of trading through the overnight hours with the lowest volume and volatility in m...
Mon, Oct 25 2021, 4:17 PM
Nice Recovery, But Big-Picture Damage Remains
Monday could have been worse. Bonds started out in weaker ter...
Mon, Oct 25 2021, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates began the day right in line with Friday afternoon's latest levels. Lenders likely would have been able to offer lower rates if the bond...
Mon, Oct 25 2021, 10:48 AM
10yr yields hit a long-term ceiling of 1.776 on March 30th, 2021 as bonds quickly priced in vaccine efficacy and fiscal policy. Several sideways mont...
Fri, Oct 22 2021, 4:45 PM
Solid Afternoon Bounce, But Context Matters
There's surely some great analogy to be made about perspective (...
Fri, Oct 22 2021, 10:04 AM
To buy the dip or not to buy the dip (in bond prices). That is the question faced by traders today as 10yr yields hit the 1.70% technical level in af...
Thu, Oct 21 2021, 4:21 PM
Fear of The I-Word
Today's 5yr TIPS auction met with heavy demand for inflation protection. While that didn...
Thu, Oct 21 2021, 10:51 AM
Considering yields have pushed to new long-term highs on 3 out of the past 3 days, it's safe to say that bonds are "trending" as opposed to flat/sidew...
