Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain

Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly moved back to unchanged levels by the close. Most of the day's volatility surrounded comments from a Swiss finance minister on this weekend's US/China trade talks (in Switzerland). The movement was very small in the bigger picture, possibly reflecting the very low odds for any sort of trade resolution like yesterday's UK/US deal.  Still, over the weekend headlines may provide hints as to where the discussions are headed, and that could be worth some volatility as the coming week begins.  A day later, CPI will provide the first big-picture assessment of April's inflation (still exceptionally early when it comes to potential tariff-related impacts, but not too early to see some impact).

Market Movement Recap
09:59 AM

Modestly weaker overnight, but moving back into positive territory now.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359

01:14 PM

Mostly flat all morning.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.365

04:49 PM

Heading out near weakest levels with MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr yields up 0.7bps at 4.384

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