Bonds definitely paused their long term relationship with economic data in wake of the tariff announcement in early April, which was logical given the headline-drive volatility and uncertainty. 2 weeks ago, the connection looked to be returning. Now over the past 2 days, it's back with a vengeance. It's not that any of the data has been stunningly strong, but it's been much better than what some market participants were prepared to see. Friday's jobs report is the 2nd time in 2 days where traders have been able (or forced?) to reconcile their more dire fears with a less dire reality. Translation: higher stocks, higher yields. More big ticket data on the way on Monday...
-
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- 177k vs 130k f'cast, 185k prev
- last month revised down from 228
- Unemployment Rate
- 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.2 prev
- Participation rate
- up 0.1% (bad for bonds)
- Nonfarm Payrolls
Losing some ground after jobs report. MBS down about an eighth and 10yr up 5.5bps at 4.271
More selling. MBS down just over a quarter point and 10yr up 8.8bps at 4.305
More weakness. 10yr up 10.6 bps at 4.323. MBS down 9 ticks (.28).
Off the weakest levels, but still weak. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 9.3bps at 4.31
MBS Market Alerts
