Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility

There was always a reasonably high bar for today's econ data to have a big impact. When it came out right in line with expectations this morning, that ship sailed. That left the month-end trading environment as the most likely source of inspiration.  While we can certainly see some evidence of month-end volatility, it played out in a narrow range.  More importantly, it resolved with bonds at the strongest levels of the week, even if by only a small margin.  

Econ Data / Events
    • Core PCE monthly
      • 0.1 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.0 prev
    • Core PCE Annual
      • 2.5 vs 2.5 f'cast, 2.7 prev
    • Wholesale Inventories
      • 0.0 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.7 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:40 AM

flat overnight and minimal reaction to data. MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.435

11:31 AM

Steady near unchanged levels in MBS.  10yr down 1.2bps at 4.407

03:40 PM

Best levels of the day, but minimal movement overall.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.399

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