Tue, Apr 12 2022, 2:37 PM
While still healthy, mortgage lenders’ 2021 profits took a deep dive from the record returns recorded in 2020. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 12:11 PM
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) is arguably the most important data point for interest rates in a world where inflation is at the highest levels since ...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 11:44 AM
I knew it was going to be a rough morning today when my alarm went off and I found my cat Myrtle staring at the computer screen watching Social D’s “D...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 4:01 PM
The last few days of March offered some hope that 2022's massive rate spike might be slowing down. The first few days of April crushed those hopes a...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 3:51 PM
Running Out of Ways to Say "Higher Rates"
Market watchers are at risk of major desensitization when it comes...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 3:18 PM
Overall volumes of mortgage loan rate locks appear, as yet, largely unaffected by the recent increases in mortgage interest rates, but have definitely...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 11:30 AM
Bonds lost ground early in the overnight session before buyers stepped in to defend the new multi-year highs in yields across the curve. Japanese inve...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 4:20 PM
Rates Keep Playing Defense Ahead of Volatile, Holiday-Shortened Week
Wednesday's Fed Minutes might have serv...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 11:42 AM
Hopeful consolidation... Crushing defeat... Hopeful consolidation... Crushing defeat. We've hesitated time and again to endorse too much hope for a t...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 11:27 AM
The risk-free 2-year Treasury began 2022 yielding .73 and is now at 2.52 percent! Does your company offer 2-1 buydown loans? Do your LOs even know wha...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the price of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are basically bonds that allow investors to lend money to m...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 3:54 PM
Bad Day For The 10yr But Not For MBS
The spread between 2 and 10yr yields has widened more than 27bps in 2 d...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 11:53 AM
Following the second shallow inversion of the 2yr vs 10yr yield curve on Tuesday, 10yr yields have been surging higher while 2s recover. The curve is...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 10:12 AM
Today is National Beer Day (beer humor below), which made last night Beer Day’s Eve. Here at the CMLA event the talk is not about all of the craft bre...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates jumped significantly higher this morning with the average conventional conforming 30yr fixed rate moving well over 5%. The most recent...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 4:24 PM
Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality
Yesterday's comments from Fed Vice Chair Brainard e...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 2:04 PM
You can't spend too much time reading/watching the news recently without being well aware of the relatively unprecedented surge in mortgage rates seen...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 12:17 PM
Grammar is important. What’s the difference between a kleptomaniac and a literalist? A literalist takes things literally. A kleptomaniac takes things,...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 11:51 AM
There is a highly reliable track record of the bond market moving quickly to get in position for the Fed's expected course of action. When those expe...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 5:07 PM
Rates have been rising rapidly in 2022 in general as the market quickly repositions for a big shift in Fed policy. The Fed sets short term rates and b...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 4:43 PM
Market's Fear is Bigger Than The Fed's Appetite For Destruction
The Fed is on a mission to destroy demand fo...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 12:19 PM
Sorry... I couldn't think of any "B" words for "weakest levels."
Our big project of the past week and a half has been to assess the possibility of a...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 11:05 AM
My friend David had his id stolen and now he’s just Dav. Having anything stolen is not a laughing matter, and since we’re in the money business, lende...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 4:01 PM
Curve Steepening Helps MBS, but Keeps Broader Indecision Intact
We're looking to the first few days of April...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates are fresh off their best week since early March in terms of outright improvement. The catch is that they were at the highest levels ...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 2:17 PM
Black Knight's latest Mortgage Monitor report was released this morning and it provided more timely insight on home price appreciation than last week'...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 12:23 PM
“Rob, my capital markets gal eliminated our ability to lock overnight at yesterday’s rates. I think that she’s being unreasonable. Your thoughts?” No,...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 11:38 AM
NFP Friday rarely falls on the first day of the month/quarter. The last time it happened in April was 2016, and it was wholly uneventful. The same m...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 5:26 PM
Home prices have been on a tear since late 2020 despite generally higher rates in 2021. In the past few months, rates have upped the ante by surging a...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 5:20 PM
Rate Recovery Stumbles, But Jury Still Out
As we said in the run up to today's trading session, we need to s...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 2:37 PM
Total construction spending rose in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.704 trillion, a 0.5 percent increase from January and 11.2 per...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 12:09 PM
Bonds got off to a much weaker start on Friday as "new month, new quarter" tradeflows leave sellers firmly in control. This began right out of the ga...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 11:08 AM
I think that we can all agree that in 2017 not a single interviewee got the answer correct to, “Where do you see yourself 5 years from now?” Heck, pro...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 4:56 PM
The headline "lowest rates in a week" may not be too sensational or even that informative at first glance, but in today's case, it's big news. You'd ...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 4:34 PM
Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain
The day began fairly well for the bond market...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 10:53 AM
This is the "to be or not to be" question for the bond market right now. Said differently, have we suffered sufficient slings and arrows for investor...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 3:49 PM
Yields Bounce Back Nicely, Ending Lower For 2nd Straight Day
Back to back rally days are a rarity in March. ...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 3:18 PM
There hasn't been much to get excited about when it comes to mortgage rates in the month of March--at least not in a positive way. Negative excitemen...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 10:59 AM
As we edge toward Easter, which isn’t until April 17 this year, the Dallas Fed has released a report on housing prices… have they become unhinged from...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 10:35 AM
For most of 2010 through the middle of 2013, the purchase mortgage market languished as homebuyers were reluctant to come back to the table after the ...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 9:52 AM
Oil prices aren't everything when it comes to the bond market, but they've been an important domino a few places farther up the chain due to their imp...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 4:05 PM
Another Compelling Bounce. Is This Another Head Fake?
Much like Wednesday of last week, bonds managed to pos...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 3:46 PM
In a normal mortgage rate environment, it's common to see a remarkably equal distribution of good and bad days with rates moving lower or higher vers...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 2:03 PM
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 11:54 AM
When did “beauty parlors” become “beauty shops” become “salons” and “spas?” Our industry doesn’t have a monopoly on change, and in my recent travels a...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 10:06 AM
Not that there was any reason to doubt inflation as the key consideration in the bond market right now, but those looking for extra confirmation can e...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 4:28 PM
Last week's big news was the rapid jump in rates. In fact, it was right in line with the worst week in decades in terms of the total increase in the ...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 3:58 PM
Yields Recover After New Long-Term Highs Overnight
Treasury yields rose to new long-term highs during the fi...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 12:26 PM
The new week begins with longer-dated bonds recovering significantly better than short-term notes after Friday's big selling spree. In fact, the shor...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 8:47 AM
This isn’t a commentary. It’s a “next level experience!” How are we in the week ending the first quarter already? Here’s some news that will be greete...
