Tue, Jul 19 2022, 10:53 AM
From Salt Lake City, Rich B. sends, “My mind is like an internet browser: 17 tabs are open, 4 of them are frozen, and I don’t know where the music is ...
Mon, Jul 18 2022, 4:42 PM
Weaker Despite Decent Mid-Day Bounce
Bonds began the week in weaker territory with yields pulled higher by E...
Mon, Jul 18 2022, 11:15 AM
This week's economic data is primarily focused on the housing market with NAHB, Housing Starts, and Existing Sales on the first 3 days respectively. ...
Mon, Jul 18 2022, 11:08 AM
Everyone is watching the value of their 401(k) plan go down. You should be watching it go down from “across the pond,” sitting at a sidewalk café in P...
Mon, Jul 18 2022, 10:58 AM
The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) released it's Housing Market Index (HMI) for July this morning. This measure of builder confidence fel...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 5:02 PM
It was a week for paradoxes on several fronts, most notably when mortgage rates moved lower just after the Fed floated the idea of an even bigger hike...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 3:38 PM
Why Were Rates Able to Defy Stronger Data?
With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 12:10 PM
With at least one Fed speaker mentioning Retail Sales as having a bearing on the Fed's debate between a 75bp and 100bp hike at the upcoming July meeti...
Fri, Jul 15 2022, 11:32 AM
Dang these five-day work weeks seem long! My cat Myrtle doesn’t seem overly concerned with work, days or weeks, as long as that line-caught ocean salm...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 4:43 PM
A week ago today, we saw one of the most glaring examples of the popular Freddie Mac mortgage rate survey sending mixed signals to reporters and consu...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 4:23 PM
Nice Bounce Back After a Bumpy Morning
All in all, today's trading range fell inside yesterday's and this we...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 3:21 PM
The biggest issue with the two most widely followed home price indices (FHFA and Case Shiller) is that the underlying data is almost 2 months old by t...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 12:27 PM
In the bigger picture, longer-term yields are trading a narrow, sideways range this week with today's yields well inside yesterday's range and yesterd...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 10:27 AM
Real estate agents love it when loan officers give them referrals. That’s not always easy. Is giving a real estate agent a book on becoming a producti...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 3:40 PM
Ask anyone who knows a thing or two about how interest rates work and they'll tell you: inflation is the enemy! What caused the record high rates b...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 3:25 PM
Did Rates Just Realize They're Invincible?
Want to see an interest rate that isn't worried about going much ...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 11:59 AM
We knew CPI was the biggest potential market mover this week and it hasn't disappointed in that regard. It has also provided bonus entertainment in t...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 11:34 AM
Sue W. writes, “After I say, ‘That’s crazy’ twice, please wrap up your story.” There are a lot of stories out there now as residential lenders tighten...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 11:25 AM
Mortgage application activity declined last week, again due, partially at least, to a holiday shortened business week. The Mortgage Bankers Associatio...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 4:00 PM
Bonds Retreat After Auction. Here Comes CPI
Bonds began the day in a surprisingly strong stance and it didn'...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 2:43 PM
The first two days of the week have been fairly boring for mortgage rates relative to recent volatility. There's been a bit of friendly movement on b...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 10:39 AM
I mentioned yesterday that 4 out of 3 people have trouble with math, but it doesn’t take a genius to do subtraction. 6 - .2 = 5.8, right? Wouldn’t you...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 10:30 AM
Bonds are starting the day in much stronger territory, and this raises a few interesting points and questions. First off, it's interesting to see a 2...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 5:25 PM
Mortgage rates moved sharply higher last week relative to where they ended the previous week. In the 3 weeks before that, rates fell at one of the fa...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 4:30 PM
Bonds Open to Suggestion Ahead of Inflation Data
After selling off fairly swiftly for most of last week, bon...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 12:27 PM
Heading into the new week early this morning, Treasuries refused to move any higher than Friday's highs and ultimately moved lower as they followed an...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 11:13 AM
Did you know that 4 out of 3 people have trouble with math? I do too, as suggested by my capital markets background, but I know enough to understand t...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 5:01 PM
Rates Defeated by Data. Another Big Fight Next Week
This week's recap is fairly straightforward. Rates were...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 4:43 PM
Most of the following is an updated version of the same coverage from yesterday. Little changed today apart from the big jobs report pushing rates hi...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 12:54 PM
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus. Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 11:08 AM
Dang, is there any good news out there? Japanese ex-Prime Minister Abe was tragically assassinated. Rates stink, especially compare to 2020 and 2021, ...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 4:35 PM
Bond Bounce Continues Ahead of Jobs Report and Next Week's CPI
Apart from a brief breakout in mid-June, rate...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 3:46 PM
Without a shadow of a doubt, mortgage rates are noticeably higher today than they were yesterday. They were also noticeably higher yesterday compared...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 11:18 AM
Momentum indicators are staples of technical analysis for a reason. While the exact timing and magnitude of market movement will always defy accurate...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 10:42 AM
Many youngsters don’t know the “Shave and a haircut? Two bits!” knock, or musical notes. Some things are timeless, like British Prime Ministers coming...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving lower for the past 3 weeks after hitting the highest levels since 2008 in the middle of June. This was a larger-scale...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 4:31 PM
Sharp Losses Offer a Reminder About The Range
We first began to discuss the prevailing rate narrative on May...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 11:52 AM
The two-year explosion in home prices appears to be cooling a bit. Black Knight says annual appreciation was down in May for the second straight month...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:55 AM
“I'm a multitasker. I can listen, ignore, and forget all at the same time!” We won’t, however, soon forget this part of the business cycle. “Rob, than...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:48 AM
Mortgage application activities declined during the week ended July 1 after three straight weeks of improvement. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:41 AM
The 2nd half of the last 2 months has been good for the bond market, as long as you're willing to overlook the fact that both multi-week rallies requi...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates hit 5.5% last Friday for the top tier conforming 30yr fixed scenario at the average lender. That was the lowest since June 8th, just...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 3:36 PM
Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance
Bonds rallied early in the domestic session and again heading ...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 11:34 AM
“What do you get when you cross the Atlantic Ocean with the Titanic? Halfway.” We’ve crossed the halfway point of 2022, and where’s everyone’s attenti...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 9:47 AM
Inflation fear/optimism vs global growth concerns... that is the headline at the moment--not just for the domestic bond market, but for the entire glo...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates have been volatile in 2022. Most of that volatility has played out in the form of higher rates. The past 2 weeks have been a notable ex...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:17 PM
Big Gains Intact After Huge Intraday Swings
Bonds had 3 fewer hours to trade on Friday, but ended up coverin...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 11:54 AM
Bonds were tentatively ready to confirm a top in yields and runaway inflation in May, but hotter CPI in the Eurozone and the US caused one last revisi...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 9:58 AM
This morning, at the beginning of the third quarter of 2022, I learned about this morsel: The most common national holiday around the world is indepen...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:45 PM
Inflation is the enemy of low interest rates. As such, the mortgage market was waiting patiently for this week's key inflation report released this m...
