Tue, Mar 29 2022, 4:05 PM
Another Compelling Bounce. Is This Another Head Fake?
Much like Wednesday of last week, bonds managed to pos...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 3:46 PM
In a normal mortgage rate environment, it's common to see a remarkably equal distribution of good and bad days with rates moving lower or higher vers...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 2:03 PM
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 11:54 AM
When did “beauty parlors” become “beauty shops” become “salons” and “spas?” Our industry doesn’t have a monopoly on change, and in my recent travels a...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 10:06 AM
Not that there was any reason to doubt inflation as the key consideration in the bond market right now, but those looking for extra confirmation can e...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 4:28 PM
Last week's big news was the rapid jump in rates. In fact, it was right in line with the worst week in decades in terms of the total increase in the ...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 3:58 PM
Yields Recover After New Long-Term Highs Overnight
Treasury yields rose to new long-term highs during the fi...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 12:26 PM
The new week begins with longer-dated bonds recovering significantly better than short-term notes after Friday's big selling spree. In fact, the shor...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 8:47 AM
This isn’t a commentary. It’s a “next level experience!” How are we in the week ending the first quarter already? Here’s some news that will be greete...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 7:38 PM
While weeks in 2022 have been terrible for mortgage rates, we've always been able to say "at least it wasn't as bad as that one week in 2013." We can'...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 4:30 PM
What's Up With Today's Massive Snowball Sell-Off?
Seemingly out of the blue, and without any clear connectio...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 2:30 PM
Friday’s pending home sales report was the hat trick; all three home sales measures declined last month . While new and existing home sales have had ...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 1:51 PM
Thursday may have seen some bond market weakness, but it was the kind we could tolerate considering yields didn't make new highs on the week. In that...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 11:08 AM
“A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.” Lenders sometimes grapple with the former, always deal with the latter. In my trave...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 3:54 PM
No Easy Victory For The Consolidation
We began yesterday by counting all of the bond market head fakes seen ...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 3:28 PM
Tuesday (March 22) saw mortgage rates at their highest levels since late 2018 with top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios being quoted 4.75% by th...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 11:29 AM
We began yesterday by counting all of the bond market head fakes seen since the Fed's first notable revision to the policy outlook in September 2021. ...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 9:57 AM
The state of most commodity prices around the world? Prices are higher. What is the current state of donating blood? I tried donating blood again yest...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 9:52 AM
While they began to become homeowners at a more advanced age than many of their predecessors and encountered an abnormally high number of obstacles ge...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 4:34 PM
The month of March has amounted to a very long night for the mortgage market with rates not only moving higher at one of the fastest paces on record, ...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 4:17 PM
Best Rally in Weeks. Should We Care?
Days like Wednesday remind us of days like February 11th. At the time...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 1:58 PM
The data is in for Q4, 2021, and it was not a good quarter for mortgage profitability according to the Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance report f...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 1:24 PM
The correlation between interest rates and mortgage refinance demand is extremely strong and predictable. Rates go up, refis go down. Rates skyrocke...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 10:45 AM
When yields/rates have risen as much as we've seen so far in 2022, and especially when the 10yr hit the 2.40% target that we didn't expect to see quit...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 9:48 AM
Another day of travel, heading to California and its Central Coast. The state has seen its share of house price appreciation, as has the nation, and i...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 7:27 PM
Rates added to the record-breaking move higher today. The carnage has now earned early 2022 the dubious distinction of being the biggest 3-month rate...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 4:28 PM
Snowball Selling Pushes 10yr Toward 2.4%, Mortgage Rates to High 4's
The global market jumped on the bandwag...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 12:36 PM
More than a half-million loans remained in forbearance at the end of February according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Its monthly Loan ...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 12:16 PM
At times in the QE era, the markets have rushed to adjust to a rapidly evolving understanding of the Fed's policy intentions. At other times, the Fed...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 10:37 AM
As packages of mortgage servicing rights continue to hit the market, and some wonder at the high multiples, know that the percentage of borrowers curr...
Mon, Mar 21 2022, 6:27 PM
From Bad to Worse as Powell Doubles Down on Policy Shift
Things were already fairly ugly this morning as the bond market opted to pay no attenti...
Mon, Mar 21 2022, 5:22 PM
By the end of last week, the bond market was sending hopeful signs about the recent rate spike potentially leveling off. It had done the same thing...
Mon, Mar 21 2022, 11:43 AM
Today, for yield curve fans, the 3, 5, and 7-year Treasury yields are all above the 10-year yield. But yesterday was the Spring Equinox, aka Vernal Eq...
Mon, Mar 21 2022, 9:05 AM
For two Fridays in a row, bonds have leveled off in a way that offered some hope for consolidation and stability. And for two Mondays in a row, the w...
Fri, Mar 18 2022, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market, and as of the middle of this week, bonds had lost a good amount of ground every day for 8 st...
Fri, Mar 18 2022, 4:20 PM
Another Shot at Consolidation. Is This Time Different?
Last Friday had a fairly classic "leveling-off" vibe ...
Fri, Mar 18 2022, 1:13 PM
Existing home sales slowed in February and the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said the recent rise in interest rates may have already knocke...
Fri, Mar 18 2022, 12:23 PM
With this week's Fed announcement in the rearview and no other earth-shattering developments in data or geopolitics, bonds are left to the sort of con...
Fri, Mar 18 2022, 10:50 AM
When did pineapples in shopping carts become a thing (more below)? But I digress… This morning I head to Miami, because isn’t there where most rap vid...
Thu, Mar 17 2022, 4:51 PM
It was potentially a very boring or interesting day for mortgage rates, depending on where you get your news and how tuned in you were to yesterda...
Thu, Mar 17 2022, 4:17 PM
Mixed Day For Bonds; MBS Outperform
Today's trading session had a bit an anticlimactic "day after" vibe foll...
Thu, Mar 17 2022, 11:09 AM
Last week was ugly for the bond market even though much of the ugliness was due to the immense rally of the previous week. By Friday, rates were able...
Thu, Mar 17 2022, 10:10 AM
Walking around Memphis yesterday got me to thinking, “I wonder what the part of my brain that used to store people’s phone numbers is doing now.” Mayb...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market, and bonds have lost ground every day for 8 straight days. Today was merely the latest in t...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 4:20 PM
Big Swoon After Fed Announcement, Big Recovery Later
Today delivered on the typical Fed day promise of big m...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 2:01 PM
Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in rec...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 1:55 PM
Residential construction and its logical impact on builder confidence has been one of the biggest pleasant surprises of an otherwise very unpleasant c...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 1:00 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its latest mortgage application numbers this morning and the modest movement belies the drama unfoldin...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 11:10 AM
We already know that tapering has wrapped up as of last week and that the Fed will continue to reinvest proceeds from the existing bond portfolio unti...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 9:59 AM
Let’s face it, women spend more time worrying about what men are actually thinking than men actually spend thinking. While capital markets staffs are ...
