Tue, Jul 5 2022, 11:34 AM
“What do you get when you cross the Atlantic Ocean with the Titanic? Halfway.” We’ve crossed the halfway point of 2022, and where’s everyone’s attenti...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 9:47 AM
Inflation fear/optimism vs global growth concerns... that is the headline at the moment--not just for the domestic bond market, but for the entire glo...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates have been volatile in 2022. Most of that volatility has played out in the form of higher rates. The past 2 weeks have been a notable ex...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:17 PM
Big Gains Intact After Huge Intraday Swings
Bonds had 3 fewer hours to trade on Friday, but ended up coverin...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 11:54 AM
Bonds were tentatively ready to confirm a top in yields and runaway inflation in May, but hotter CPI in the Eurozone and the US caused one last revisi...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 9:58 AM
This morning, at the beginning of the third quarter of 2022, I learned about this morsel: The most common national holiday around the world is indepen...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:45 PM
Inflation is the enemy of low interest rates. As such, the mortgage market was waiting patiently for this week's key inflation report released this m...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:33 PM
Bonds Get The Rally They Deserved in Exchange for Cooler PCE Data
This week's data focus was all about today...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 11:54 AM
PCE inflation data painted a cooler picture than the most recent CPI report (the one that sent rates surging higher into mid-June). So far this morni...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 10:49 AM
“Looking out at the road rushing under my wheels… Looking back at the years gone by like so many summer fields.” Yes, at the end of today we’re halfwa...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds have been under tremendous pressure due to inflation. As such, when a major inflation report c...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 4:41 PM
Bonds Bolstered by Big Swings in Inflation Data and Expectations
US bonds found several sources of inspirati...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 12:13 PM
Sometimes bonds head into a trading day knowing that some key event(s) will hold the potential to push rates decisively higher or lower depending on t...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 10:41 AM
The volume of mortgage applications rose fractionally last week as rates edged down and applications for refinancing staged a small comeback. The Mort...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 10:39 AM
We’re all trying to save a few pennies. We have the increase in postal rates coming soon and perhaps pick up a roll, or ten, of Forever Stamps. It’s n...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 5:02 PM
After moving up sharply on Friday, mortgage rates weren't significantly higher yesterday. That represented a bit of a disconnect with underlying bond...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:50 PM
Surprisingly Resilient as Range-Finding Expedition Continues
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but qui...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:26 PM
It's one of the perennial "yeah buts" of the two largest and most widely-cited home price indices: there data is always about 2 months old by the time...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 10:59 AM
You can rest assured that no animals were harmed in the making of this commentary! But the harm felt by stockholders during the last several months ha...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:12 PM
Last week was significantly calmer than the previous week for rates (and many other things in the financial market, for that matter). After hitting t...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:03 PM
Bond Market Defensiveness Justified by Weak Auction
Coming into the domestic session, bonds were weaker with...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 3:43 PM
Pending Home Sales hit their most recent peak in October according to data reported in November, 2021 by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). ...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 12:31 PM
As rates moved up from the lows seen at the end of May, we viewed it as the confirmation of the broader sideways momentum that we hoped would replace ...
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 10:56 AM
“I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not so sure.” Management teams at lenders and vendors can’t be indecisive in this environment. Who’s going to be rig...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 5:00 PM
In 2020 and 2021, housing boomed and rates plummeted at a pace that many considered to be unsustainable . 2022's role is to take things back in the o...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 4:28 PM
Bonds Lost Ground, But It Was Still Sort of a Victory
As the day began, bonds flirted with the idea of break...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 12:56 PM
Last month's New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau was a real downer. It showed sharp declines in sales and a puzzlingly abrupt jump in inventor...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 11:23 AM
Knocking on wood is an apotropaic (averting bad luck) tradition of literally touching, tapping, or knocking on wood, or merely stating that one is doi...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:36 AM
Granted, the bond market lost some ground yesterday afternoon, but the more important takeaway was the day-over-day gains that successfully confirmed...
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:17 AM
Rates may be much higher in each of the past 3 months, but those with mortgages are making their payments with record-setting regularity. The overall...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 4:06 PM
Most of today's mortgage rate headlines suggest that rates are higher this week. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Well, a few things could b...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 3:53 PM
Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength
MBS lost more than 3/8ths of a point betwe...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 12:27 PM
A slew of PMI reports (Purchasing Manager Indices, which are essentially more granular, more timely, and only slightly more focused versions of GDP) s...
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 10:24 AM
Crypto and blockchain technologies have some valid applications but when it’s just for investment, there are tons of scams. (And what would we do for ...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
Despite Onslaught of Fed Speakers, Bonds Hold Solid Gains
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
When rates jump by some of the biggest amounts ever to the highest levels in more than a decade, it sets us up for some equally impressive corrections...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:45 AM
One topic of conversation at the MBAH conference is the quote making the rounds, “Marry the house, date the rate,” a nightmare for capital markets and...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:30 AM
An increase in home purchase activity drove mortgage applications higher during the week ended June 17. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said it...
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:30 AM
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields... All of the above moved steadily lower in th...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 5:04 PM
Mortgage rates surged well into the 6% range last week before quickly cooling down after Wednesday's Fed announcement. The average top tier rate was ...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 4:17 PM
April, May, and June of 2020 were the only 3 months where Existing Home Sales suffered as a result of the pandemic. During those three months, the an...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 11:52 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week just barely below the mid-point of last week's big, volatile trading range. Getting here required a moderate amou...
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 10:56 AM
Here in Honolulu, talk among those gathered for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference includes the rise in adjustable-rate mortgage lending by depositorie...
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 8:06 PM
In a year where mortgage rate volatility has been extreme, this week made everything else look tame by comparison. While it will never show up in wee...
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 11:26 AM
It's been the phrase we love to hate since late May when bond yields encountered firm resistance as they failed to break below 2.7% for 4 straight day...
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 10:30 AM
There are strange things going on out there. Revlon filing for bankruptcy. Atlanta’s mayor calling for limits on investors buying homes. Delta Airline...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates are still in the process of bouncing back from an ultra-sharp spike to the highest levels since 2008 seen on Tuesday. Clarity from the...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:23 PM
Treasuries Thunder Back Positive Territory; MBS Underperform
This morning's headline suggested a sideways, v...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 12:24 PM
As rates made their way lower in the month of May, our ongoing thesis was that gains would be limited by the fact that a true rally required many mont...
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 11:18 AM
As might have been expected considering the sixth consecutive drop in the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB’s) Housing Market Index release...
