Tue, Mar 15 2022, 4:44 PM
Annoying Little Head-Fake, But Don't Abandon All Hope
Just when the bond market looks like it will throw you...
Tue, Mar 15 2022, 4:18 PM
Imagine paying $1500/month for rent in 2021 and getting a renewal letter for $2079. That's the reality for those living in the metropolitan area wher...
Tue, Mar 15 2022, 1:11 PM
Coming off of yesterday's gigantic selling spree, bonds caught a break in the overnight session after briefly hitting even higher highs (10yr topped o...
Tue, Mar 15 2022, 11:33 AM
At the Ides of March, inflation is pervasive. Today rumors are swirling that Tom Brady ended his retirement because of not being able to afford to ret...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 4:28 PM
If you received a mortgage rate quote any time in the past few days or weeks, unless it was at the end of the business day on Monday, March 14th, you'...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 4:10 PM
What's Up With Today's Massive Sell-Off In Bonds?
Bonds tanked hard today. Losses were in place right from ...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 11:51 AM
Today’s commentary: 100 percent the truth except for the stuff I make up randomly. I am not making up the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week with tra...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 10:38 AM
If anything, fighting intensified over the weekend in Ukraine. This is something that would typically drive more safe-haven buying in the bond market...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 5:58 PM
The Fed will hike its key policy rate for the first time since 2018 next week, but mortgage rates aren't waiting to move higher. By the end of this w...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 3:49 PM
Uncharacteristically Quiet, But Still Slightly Weaker
Bonds started the overnight session stronger, but lost...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 11:48 AM
Today marks the conclusion of the Fed's post-covid balance sheet expansion. In other words. Tapering is complete. Before covid, the Fed enacted qua...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 10:08 AM
Daylight Saving Time for much of the nation springs up Sunday morning, leading to plenty of grousing on Monday. What else is going on? “Please listen ...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 4:00 PM
Bonds Not Catching a Break From Strong Auction or Lower Oil Prices
Oil prices fell today today and the bond ...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 3:36 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again for Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. An industry standard report dating back to the 70s, Freddie's s...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 2:30 PM
Mortgage lenders are pragmatic about their business prospects over the next quarter, expecting mortgage rates to continue to increase and refinance ac...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 10:20 AM
“I don’t always go the extra mile, but when I do, it’s because I missed my exit.” And that extra mile costs more every week. Higher gasoline prices ce...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 9:39 AM
The bond market is looking past Ukraine and economic data this morning to focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The reaction in EU b...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit new multi-year highs in February. At the time, you'd have to go back to the first half of 2019 to see anything higher...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 4:31 PM
Hopeful Markets and Big Corporate Deal Pushes Yields Higher
Stocks and bond yields moved higher in unison to...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 12:49 PM
As we've discussed over the past 2 days, the bond market remains stuck between a rock and a hard place. If things get worse in Ukraine, commodity pri...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 9:43 AM
I’m visiting with lenders in Tennessee much of this week, and a fair amount of the talk revolves around conversations with borrowers “unlocking the eq...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 9:34 AM
The news release for weekly mortgage applications may have come out today, but as with any economic report, it refers to things that happened in the p...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 4:36 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds are having a tough time in the past few days. Bonds such as US Treasuries often benefit from terrible t...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 4:22 PM
Struggling to Find a Rate-Friendly Narrative
Bonds sold off early in the overnight session and then more sha...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 11:39 AM
Things aren't always as simple as they seem. Let's hope that's the case for bonds, because things seem tragically simple when we try to reconcile the...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 10:40 AM
This morning I am heading to Knoxville to visit with the local chapter of the Tennessee Mortgage Bankers Association. On my way I received an email as...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 4:15 PM
Bonds Struggling With Inflation Implications
Although the bond market is still a net beneficiary from the wa...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates have experienced significant volatility so far in 2022. At first, this was almost exclusively a function of the Federal Reserve or, ...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 12:32 PM
All too often, when it comes to consumer surveys about the future, the results tend to reflect what has already happened as opposed to what will conti...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 11:52 AM
What is $9,140? It was the production cost, per IMB loan for the 3rd quarter in 2021. (The Q4 2021 results are coming out on March 22.) I bring this u...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 10:05 AM
The week is getting off to a weaker start. Bonds rallied in the first hour of overnight trading but began to lose ground steadily after that. By the...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 8:46 PM
Financial markets were already dealing with rapidly evolving Fed policy shifts, a big jump in rates, and a big drop in stocks. But after Russia invade...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 4:07 PM
Yields Near Recent Lows Heading Into Another Highly Uncertain Weekend
Bonds began the overnight session with...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 11:46 AM
As Russia continues waging war on Ukraine and wage growth disappointed in this morning's jobs report, bonds are rallying back toward the best levels o...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 10:28 AM
Yes, it’s March 4th… the only day that is a command for us humans. We thought it was our ability to love that made us human, but it turns out that it ...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 4:47 PM
The first 2 days of the week marked the best 48 hour stint for mortgage rates since March 2020, and one of the best on record. Such victories require...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 4:14 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Mid-Week Rout
Any additional weakness after Wednesday's blood-letting would have ad...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 12:42 PM
There was more than a shred of hope in the overnight trading session as bonds were able to make modest gains despite slightly stronger stocks and anot...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 10:21 AM
I flew into San Diego yesterday for the MCT Exchange, and it is hard not to notice the number of boats in the harbor. For some quick “fun with numbers...
Wed, Mar 2 2022, 4:56 PM
On a normal week, we can follow day to day movement in rates and point out how far behind the times the week-to-week changes are. This time around, t...
Wed, Mar 2 2022, 4:40 PM
Biggest Selling Spree in a Long Time, Here's Why
Absolutely massive selling in MBS today with 3.0 coupons lo...
Wed, Mar 2 2022, 1:24 PM
Mortgage applications have been making logical moves recently with higher rates causing a sharp deceleration in refinance activity. Purchases are off...
Wed, Mar 2 2022, 11:41 AM
The flight to safety trade has been dominating markets in the past week with bond yields hitting their lowest levels since January 13th yesterday and ...
Wed, Mar 2 2022, 10:03 AM
Loan originators spend their time making people’s days (unlike this film clip). Builders hope that they make people’s days, and I spent some time this...
Tue, Mar 1 2022, 4:48 PM
First thing's first. We need to get some caveats out of the way. The following should always be assumed when reading mortgage rate coverage, but I...
Tue, Mar 1 2022, 4:32 PM
Flight to Safety Dominates While Escalation Threats Remain
The line of traders waiting to buy Treasuries is ...
Tue, Mar 1 2022, 1:46 PM
CoreLogic released its Home Price Index for January today, showing year-over-year price appreciation of 19.1% nationally. That's the highest rate of ...
Tue, Mar 1 2022, 11:29 AM
"Sergeant, can we go for breakfast now?" "March first!" Welcome to March, with Mardi Gras beginning today, Daylight Savings Time on the 13th, Pi Day o...
Tue, Mar 1 2022, 10:54 AM
The line of traders waiting to buy Treasuries is as long as the line of trucks waiting to invade Kyiv. As long as the world is convinced that things ...
Mon, Feb 28 2022, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds are often the target of safe haven buying in times of geopolitical distress. The situation in Ukraine c...
