Fans of MASH know that Alan Alda turned 90 yesterday, and the remaining actors from the show joined him on the beach. When you reach a certain age you don’t care about the employment picture. Amazon laying off another 16,000, as announced this week, won’t help anyone’s “the economy is doing great” argument. As economist Elliot Eisenberg points out, “The most disturbing piece of information from last week’s income data is the confirmation of a complete lack of income growth over the past 12 months. During 11/24, real (after inflation) disposable (after taxes) per capita personal income was $52,324 and during 11/25 it was $52,557. Additionally, job growth over those 12 months was an anemic 857,000, or half a percent and declining, the lowest growth rate since 11/2010.” Certainly how economics impact lenders will be a topic on today’s The Big Picture at 3PM ET with guest Better.com CEO Vishal Garg for a wide-ranging conversation on the evolution of Better, what AI-powered mortgage looks like in practice, scaling to $100 billion in volume, the One Day Mortgage, blending technology with local origination, rebuilding culture and trust, and how leadership teams should be positioning for the next turn in the housing cycle. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with Sitewire's Bryan Kester that includes an exploration of how permitting friction, underestimated rehab complexity, and weak pre-funding diligence (not land or labor) have become the true constraints on housing supply, and what smarter underwriting and process discipline look like as the market adapts.)

Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders

Looking for a clearer way to understand what’s really driving your pricing and performance in today’s market? Optimal Blue’s data solutions are designed to deliver the kind of end-to-end visibility lenders need to make faster, more confident decisions. As Mike Vough, SVP of corporate strategy, explains, “our data set spans the full life cycle, from borrower intent and lock through funding, loan sale, servicing valuation, and recapture.” That holistic view helps lenders quantify the feedback loop between the primary and secondary markets, offering intelligence that can support strategic pricing and timely reactions to shifting conditions. Tap into granular, accurate pricing and lock analytics to understand your position in the market. And with anonymized broker search trends, you can spot emerging demand even before locked production begins. Ready to explore how unmatched mortgage data can strengthen your competitive position? Learn more about Optimal Blue data solutions today.

Don’t miss MCT’s first public edition of the MCTlive! Release Notes Webinar happening today at 10:00 a.m. PT. This live session will provide an inside look at the Q4 2025 MCTlive! technology releases, featuring new capabilities designed to improve efficiency, visibility, and automation across secondary marketing operations. Moderated by Steve Pawlowski, Managing Director and Head of Technology Solutions at MCT, the webinar will include live demonstrations on how the latest enhancements improve mortgage pipeline management. Attendees will gain a clearer understanding of innovations within MCTlive! that support more confident execution and smarter decision-making in today’s mortgage market. Register for today’s webinar to learn about using the new enhancements within the platform from industry experts.

NEW Program Announcement: Cannabis Income Now Eligible. American Heritage Lending is excited to introduce our new Cannabis Income Program, designed to help brokers say “yes” to more qualified borrowers in a fast-growing, underserved market. As cannabis becomes legal in many states, a financially stable workforce has faced limited financing options. This program allows eligible cannabis-related income to be considered on select loan programs. Acceptable income includes W-2 wage earners employed by licensed dispensaries, borrowers who work for or own CBD-only businesses, and dispensary owners using full documentation or bank statement income (ownership percentage required). All cannabis activity must be legal in the state of operation, dispensaries must hold a valid state-issued license, and income from cultivation or transportation is not permitted. Visit the Broker Toolkit at Broker Toolkit | American Heritage Lending to download and customize the Cannabis Income flyer with your logo and contact information to start growing your pipeline. For more information, contact Jamie Gueltzow.

Traditional construction loans can slow down even the best opportunities. APB Wholesale’s One-Time Close Construction loan programs simplify the process by combining construction and permanent financing into a single transaction, with a wide range of full-doc and alt-doc options specifically designed to help self-employed borrowers. Options to qualify in specialized programs include using future rental income, profit and loss statements, and more! The goal: making approval more accessible and efficient for both brokers and borrowers. Eligible property types may include detached single-family homes, multi-unit properties up to four units, and more. With a dedicated construction loan department guiding every step, APB Wholesale delivers a smarter, faster path to building investment properties, with one closing and fewer surprises. Become an Approved Broker to Get Started. Visit here. APB Wholesale is the wholesale arm of American Pride Bank’s mortgage division. Equal Housing Lender. For industry professionals only. Not intended or directed at consumers. NMLS #402598

“In today’s highly competitive mortgage market, every decision counts. Having access to comprehensive, reliable data is not only a want but a need for lenders looking to make smarter, more strategic decisions to get ahead of the competition. That’s where we come in. ICE can help you stand out by delivering robust data paired with the clarity, confidence and insights you need to help drive your business forward. Our suite of nationwide property data covers 99.99 percent of all U.S. properties, across 3,100 counties, providing you with a complete view of the property landscape. Further, as a result of ICE’s commitment to data quality, you gain access to information directly from the source, with rigorous validation processes applied so you always have accurate, reliable and current data at your fingertips. Whether you're focused on market share analysis, prospecting, portfolio retention or optimizing your operations, ICE’s Property Data delivers the insights you need to perform, and compete, with confidence.”

ACES Quality Management Acquires Basecap Analytics, Expanding Enterprise Data Quality Capabilities. The acquisition enhances ACES’ ability to deliver end-to-end quality management by expanding its platform to include enterprise-wide data quality automation. Integrating the BaseCap platform expands the capabilities of ACES Quality Management & Control Software® to include advanced data validation and more intelligent quality control functionality. This unified platform empowers lenders and financial institutions to automate processes from data ingestion through defect identification while ensuring greater accuracy and compliance. “ACES and Basecap share a common mission to improve quality, confidence, transparency and compliance in financial services through technology built with the customer in mind,” said Trevor Gauthier, chief executive officer of ACES Quality Management. Read the full press release.

ELEVATE THE POWER OF PARTNERSHIPS WITH SAGENT AT MBA SERVICING. Collaboration is the backbone of the next chapter in mortgage servicing. At MBA Servicing ‘26, the conversation shifts from concept to concrete action as industry leaders gather to shape what’s next. Sagent is at the forefront, championing the power of partnership, and its Dara platform unites servicers within a single, real-time system designed for adaptability and scale, empowering teams to work smarter and faster. When organizations align around shared outcomes, they unlock the speed, flexibility, and confidence needed to thrive in a changing landscape. Don’t miss the chance to see this collaborative future in action: connect with Sagent at booth 606 or schedule a meeting to explore how partnerships are propelling servicing forward. Let’s make progress together and set the pace for tomorrow’s mortgage landscape. Learn more and schedule time to connect here.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

STRATMOR Group, AI, and Efficiency

AI has quickly moved from “interesting idea” to operational necessity in mortgage lending. In STRATMOR Group’s latest Insights Report the advisory firm examines how artificial intelligence is reshaping lending operations, from improving cycle times and quality control to helping lenders scale smarter in a margin-compressed environment.

Using a compelling air-traffic-control analogy, the report cuts through the hype to explain where AI is delivering real value today, where lenders should proceed with caution, and how to think strategically about adoption. For executives focused on efficiency, cost control, and borrower experience, this report offers a timely perspective and practical guidance. “Prepare for Takeoff: AI and the Fight for Mortgage Lending Efficiency,” is well worth the read for any lender planning their next phase of operational evolution.

Attorney Mitch Kider Considers What’s Important

Attorney Mitch Kider with Weiner Brodsky Kider PC spoke candidly with attorney Brian Levy recently about the past, present, and future. The transcript is here, but here is a highlight:

“Looking ahead, three forces are likely to define the next chapter of mortgage banking. First, artificial intelligence will fundamentally reshape origination and servicing. The efficiency gains are real, and for the first time in decades, technology may meaningfully restore industry margins. Second, the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remains the most consequential policy question in housing finance. These institutions are the market, and ending conservatorship without careful planning would jeopardize credit availability and affordability. Incremental changes may occur, but a full release carries enormous systemic risk. Third, new business models (i.e., servicing consolidation, vertical integration with real estate platforms, and data-driven consumer ecosystems) are transforming competition. For mid-sized servicers, these pressures are structural and intensifying.

“The United States has built one of the most effective housing finance systems in the world, enabling homeownership, wealth creation, and economic mobility across generations. Innovation is essential, and change is inevitable, but recklessness is not. As technology, policy, and business models evolve, the greatest challenge will be preserving the legal, regulatory, and institutional foundations that made broad homeownership possible in the first place. The future of mortgage banking will be defined not just by what we invent next, but by whether we protect what already works.”

Capital Markets

The FOMC yesterday left the federal funds target range unchanged in January, citing inflation that remains above target and a labor market that has softened only modestly, though two members, Governor Stephen Miran and Governor Christopher Waller dissented in favor of an additional 25-basis-point cut. The majority signaled a clear preference to pause further easing unless labor market conditions weaken more materially, with little urgency to act while inflation stays elevated. The formal January FOMC Statement did not contain any big surprises, refraining from calling for any policy changes, but showing a change in the description of economic activity to "solid" from "moderate." Fed Chairman Powell's press conference was not unduly hawkish, allowing Treasuries to edge up off their lows into the close, briefly lifting the 5-year yield past its January high.

Consistent with this stance, the MBA expects mortgage rates to remain range-bound between 6 percent and 6.5 percent in the near-term, supporting a modestly stronger spring housing market but not a breakout year. In the event that the jobless rate unexpectedly climbs toward 4.6 percent, bonds would likely rally and mortgage rates could slip below 6 percent, while steady employment would keep rates range bound as markets price few near-term Fed cuts. Markets are assigning virtually no chance of a cut at the next two meetings, and only about a 28 percent chance before the April 29 meeting, which is Powell’s last as Chair. After his term ends, the probabilities rise, with roughly a three-quarters chance by the June meeting. One cut is currently priced in for the year, with an 87 percent chance of a second by December 9.

At his press conference, Fed Chair Powell largely sidestepped questions on recent political and legal pressures on the Fed, explaining his attendance at a Supreme Court hearing as necessary given its historic importance, while declining to say whether he would remain on the Board after his chair term ends in May. Markets took his remarks in stride, with Treasuries rebounding modestly from intraday lows, equities mixed but stable, volatility lower, and mortgage-backed securities spreads tightening amid light, balanced retail flows. By the close, yields finished slightly higher on the day, 30-year mortgage rates hovered near 6.16 percent, and recent data showed mortgage applications pulling back as higher rates cooled refinancing activity after a year-end rebound.

Today’s economic calendar includes “mucho” data that was previously delayed due to the government shutdown, including the November trade deficit ($56.8 billion on an increase in imports), Q3 productivity/unit labor costs for November (4.9 percent, -1.9 percent, unrevised), wholesale inventories and factory orders for November, and weekly jobless claims (209k, low but as expected). Later today brings some Treasury activity that will be headlined by an auction of $44 billion of 7-year notes, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (with the prior week’s 30-year and 15-year rates increasing 3-basis points and 6-basis points to 6.09 percent and 5.44 percent, respectively).

Following yesterday’s Fed events, Sweden’s Riksbank will be out with its latest decision before the open and is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 1.75 percent. Quarterly earnings also continue from Wall Street. We begin Thursday with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Wednesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.57, and the 10-year yielding 4.25 after closing yesterday at 4.25 percent.