Fri, Jun 30 2023, 4:20 PM
Month/Quarter-End Came Early
As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME clo...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 9:27 AM
Whereas Thursday's data was clearly bad for bonds/rates (ultimately creating a challenge to the 3.84 range ceiling), Friday's key morning data is rela...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:33 PM
Bonds Crushed by Data, But Technically Still in The Range
At many points in the past week, we've lamented th...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 9:44 AM
Technical analysis provides an easy entry point for folks who want to talk about what the markets might do next. It is made all the more alluring due...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:17 PM
Modest Relief Rally as Headline Risk Comes and Goes
Unlike yesterday, bonds didn't have any market moving ec...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 12:54 PM
Unlike yesterday, there is no meaningful economic data to move the needle this morning. Bonds continue biding their time, waiting for "meaningful." ...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 5:11 PM
Logical Weakness After Stronger Data
Forget "love." Today data hurts. Durable Goods fired a warning shot a...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 11:29 AM
Forget "love." Today data hurts. Durable Goods fired a warning shot at 8:30am. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales finished the job at 10am. Wi...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 4:23 PM
Only So Many Ways to Say Sideways
It was an uneventful, boring, uninspiring, and unenlightening summertime M...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 12:46 PM
Here we are (still) with 30yr yields closer to 4% than 3%, economic growth softening, leading indicators pointing to further contraction, and inflatio...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 3:24 PM
Still Waiting For a Breakout After Friday's Uneventful Strength
Friday began with solid gains courtesy of we...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 11:19 AM
Granted, today's only available domestic economic data is the S&P PMIs, but the market could have justified either a stronger or weaker response. The...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 4:06 PM
Powell Says Old Things in New Ways and Bonds Don't Like It
It was day 2 for Fed Chair Powell's congressional...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 1:51 PM
Have you heard the one about the 3.72-3.84 range? While we haven't seen much of the ceiling this week, the floor is getting a workout. Yesterday aft...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 3:46 PM
No Whammies From Powell, 20yr Auction Helps
After a clear rejection of the 3.72% floor in 10yr yields overni...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 1:08 PM
While it would be nice to have our 3.4-3.6 range back, the past few weeks have seen the adoption of a new 3.72-3.84 range. While ranges this narrow o...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 4:56 PM
Deceptively Uneventful Trading Day For Bonds
Right out of the gate this morning, bonds responded to the mass...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 12:42 PM
Bonds started the holiday-shortened week at moderately higher yields, but rallied several bps during European hours. 8:30am econ data pushed back, er...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 4:02 PM
Rangebound Weakness With Fed Speakers Keeping Bonds Wary
Bonds might have had a chance to hold steady today-...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 12:22 PM
Heading into this week's CPI and Fed Day combo, we expected bonds to be broadly sideways with elevated volatility. But rather than give new direction...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 4:12 PM
Earl Data-Driven Rally And Not Much Drama After That
Despite a slew of other economic data that was stronger...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 9:55 AM
Last week's biggest bond rally occurred on Thursday, immediately following the release of the highest Jobless Claims number since late 2021. Exactly ...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:42 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Forecasts That Are Not Really Forecasts
Four times a year, the Fed updates its SEP (...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 2:00 PM
The following is a comparison of today's Fed statement to the previous statement from May 3rd. Deletions are struck through and in red. Additions ar...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 12:44 PM
Today's Fed events are both straightforward, mostly predictable, and potentially highly consequential. The Fed's line of thinking will likely prove t...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 3:41 PM
Frustrating Snowball Selling Despite Decent CPI
Even though CPI came in right in line with forecasts today (...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 11:12 AM
Today brought the first of the week's two major events with core CPI coming in right in line with the 0.4% forecast. Headline inflation fell even mor...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 3:45 PM
MBS Outperform Amid Treasury Supply Pressure
Bonds made it through the overnight session without any major d...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 11:06 AM
The week's much anticipated headliners are clearly the CPI/Fed combo on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. While those events still account for a va...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 3:57 PM
Canada Doesn't Really Matter. Bring on CPI and The Fed
The day began with a hunt for the mystery market move...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 9:46 AM
This otherwise sleepy Friday began with the sort of clearly defined spike in volume and yield that often accompanies big ticket economic data. With t...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:17 PM
Claims Data Completely Erases At Least One Day of Higher Rate Expectations
There have been been several days...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 12:04 PM
If you like low rates, you are often unfortunately rooting for negative economic data. You're not a bad person. Bonds are simply a hedge against eco...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 3:48 PM
BOC Warns US Rate Market Against Complacency
US rate traders are pretty sure they have the Fed figured out a...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 1:15 PM
Yesterday, it was the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) with it's first rate hike after "skipping" a few meetings. Today it was the Bank of Canada (BOC)....
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:34 PM
Nothing to See Here
It would be hard to make a case for any other day in the past month being more boring th...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 10:37 AM
With the week's only top tier economic release hitting on Monday morning, the path of least resistance for the rest of the week is a choppy, sideways ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:43 PM
Weaker Data Helps Bonds Hold Ground
Bonds remained in selling mode after Friday's jobs report. 10yr yields ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 12:29 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but quickly found their footing after softer PMI data. In particular, ISM Services (50.3 vs 52.2) helped 10yr...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 4:13 PM
What Debt Ceiling? Yields Follow NFP Higher
After being utterly bombarded for weeks, newswire feeds at tradi...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 2:00 PM
Nonfarm payrolls were up 339k, well above the 190k forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%, well above the 3.5% forecast. Ho...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Data-Driven Rally, But There's Bigger Data Ahead
Yesterday's economic data made for a bit of back and forth ...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 1:13 PM
Bonds had been hoping for econ data to reinforce a ceiling after a recent run to the highest yields in months and the past few days have delivered. T...
Wed, May 31 2023, 3:58 PM
Domestic Events Mostly Overshadowed by European Influence
While we can trace some of this morning's back and...
Wed, May 31 2023, 1:26 PM
The big news so far this week is the absence of any concrete conclusion to the debt ceiling debate (delivered in box labelled "debt ceiling debate sol...
Tue, May 30 2023, 10:53 PM
Nice Rally With Buyers Back in The Office
Any time bonds make a big (but not necessarily completely justifie...
Tue, May 30 2023, 12:55 PM
Whether it was the economic headwinds implied by the stop-gap debt ceiling proposal or a return to the market among traders who'd pared positions ahea...
Fri, May 26 2023, 2:04 PM
Bonds Diverge Over Data Implications
It's been a consistently bad week for the bond market and this morning'...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:24 PM
Debt Ceiling Debate Volatility Causing Issues For Bonds
Treasuries sold off in a linear fashion today--much ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 1:35 PM
Despite vague hints of support over the past few days, the bond market is back to the same old tricks seen last week. It's actually a pretty simple t...
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