Tue, Oct 17 2023, 11:46 AM
In addition to looking at economic data, the Fed also gets an earful from their "contacts" in the community. One would have to assume that those cont...
Fri, Oct 13 2023, 4:25 PM
Decent Recovery But MBS Underperform
On Thursday, 10yr yields came close to spiking 20bps, trough to peak, i...
Fri, Oct 13 2023, 12:45 PM
Bonds drifted gradually but consistently intro stronger overnight. We could point to a few events and a few pieces of data (softer Chinese inflation,...
Thu, Oct 12 2023, 4:13 PM
Bonds Snap Back to Reality on Higher Core Services CPI
Even before this week's rally began, we knew to be on...
Thu, Oct 12 2023, 11:04 AM
After a few days where it's been somewhat challenging to sort through the most relevant market movement considerations (war vs Fed speakers vs technic...
Wed, Oct 11 2023, 4:44 PM
Why Are Bonds Still Rallying?
Bonds have seen only a few examples of a solid 2-day rally over the past few m...
Wed, Oct 11 2023, 12:07 PM
This morning's only upper tier economic report, The Producer Price Index (PPI), came out a bit hotter than expected with a fairly significant revision...
Tue, Oct 10 2023, 4:32 PM
Rate Rally More to Do With Fed or Flight to Safety?
Bonds rallied fairly sharply to start the holiday-shorte...
Tue, Oct 10 2023, 12:13 PM
News of the Hamas bombing of Israel dominated headlines after markets closed last week. As the situation escalated over the weekend, financial market...
Fri, Oct 6 2023, 4:33 PM
Logical Reaction to Jobs Data, But Why The Mid-Day Bounce?
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the headline component of...
Fri, Oct 6 2023, 11:18 AM
This week has brought a series of fairly simple mornings with the initial reaction to economic reports playing out in a logical direction. Monday: st...
Thu, Oct 5 2023, 4:17 PM
Thursday's Rally Changes Nothing Ahead of Jobs Report
While bonds definitely had a logical reaction to this ...
Thu, Oct 5 2023, 12:16 PM
Time for another installment of "finding a narrative to fit the price action." In other words, bonds aren't doing what we'd expect based on this morn...
Wed, Oct 4 2023, 4:15 PM
Surprisingly Calm and Logical Rally
Today's economic data came in either flat or noticeably weaker depending...
Wed, Oct 4 2023, 12:01 PM
Bonds had a scary overnight session with 10s hitting highs of 4.884 around 3am ET. They rallied a full 15bps over the next 6 hours, most recently wit...
Tue, Oct 3 2023, 3:26 PM
"Higher For Longer" Fears Becoming a Reality After JOLTS
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) ...
Tue, Oct 3 2023, 11:25 AM
In the wake of the Fed announcement from 2 weeks ago, one key component of our bearish thesis was that bonds had to brace for the potential impact tha...
Mon, Oct 2 2023, 4:39 PM
Bonds Blasted by Data and Stop-Gap
The stop-gap bill that averted the government shutdown was worth some ins...
Mon, Oct 2 2023, 10:05 AM
Nearly 2 weeks ago, the Fed announcement (specifically, the economic projections and dot plot) kicked off a repricing trend in the bond market otherwi...
Fri, Sep 29 2023, 3:51 PM
Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty
Bonds improved moderately overnight, adding onto ...
Fri, Sep 29 2023, 12:24 PM
The trading day began on a fairly positive note with a strong hand-off from Europe and reasonably friendly inflation data at 8:30am. After a few mome...
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 4:11 PM
Bonds Bounce Despite Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground overnight and logically added to the losses after the m...
Thu, Sep 28 2023, 12:09 PM
Bonds lost ground modestly overnight. Contrast that to the past few trading sessions that have seen gains in Europe followed by selling in the US. T...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 3:36 PM
What is "Repricing" in The Broader Context, And How is it Moving Markets?
We've been here before and we'll b...
Wed, Sep 27 2023, 12:26 PM
Normally, when the bond market is in a pervasive selling trend, we'll see a day or two of reprieve amidst the carnage. Frequently, such days are frie...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 4:25 PM
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish, No Real Reason
Bonds improved in the overnight session, but reversed course t...
Tue, Sep 26 2023, 12:12 PM
The seemingly never-ending sea of red continues. And for good measure, this one began with a bit of hope in the form of an overnight rally that got 1...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 4:10 PM
Sell Now and Wait For Something to Convince You to Buy
Bonds began the week with another move to long-term y...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 12:04 PM
We continue to anticipate a broadly sideways trend this week although that expectations is being put to the test in early trading. Yields in the long...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 3:59 PM
Waiting For October
It seems like September only just arrived, but our sights are already set on October as ...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 12:17 PM
In a rather classic pattern, a hawkish read on the Fed gave way to international selling on Thursday. From there, a token correction was slightly mor...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 4:07 PM
New Yield Highs After Post-Fed Follow-Through and Econ Data
Any time the market goes to sleep on a Fed day i...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 12:27 PM
Wednesday was a confirmation of a hawkish Fed that won't care about the economy until it sees actual damage, and even then, only if that damage coinci...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 4:43 PM
Higher For Longer
Today's Fed announcement was largely as expected: no rate hike, "data dependent," and "hig...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have been robust slowed in recent month...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 11:53 AM
Learning how to make a big deal out of every Fed day is a requirement for passing the market commentary test. But the often-overlooked extra credit c...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 4:30 PM
Bonds Get Pre-Fed Jitters After a Mostly Flat Day
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory, mostly...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 10:42 AM
Arrr, me hearties! Last week, there be a mighty surge towards them long-term highs in the Treasury yields. But alas! With no bounty of econ data to st...
Mon, Sep 18 2023, 4:08 PM
Uneventful Monday Fits Fed Week Narrative
After last week's economic data ebbed and bonds sold-off with Euro...
Mon, Sep 18 2023, 12:49 PM
With limited data of any particular relevance ahead of this week's Fed announcement, the path of least resistance in the bond market would be for a br...
Fri, Sep 15 2023, 5:18 PM
Ceiling Defense!
There are two ways to look at today's weakness in the bond market. On one hand, yields did ...
Fri, Sep 15 2023, 9:56 AM
Yesterday's natural impulse for the domestic bond market would simply have been to move toward higher rates due to a raft of upbeat economic data in t...
Thu, Sep 14 2023, 4:26 PM
Europe Helps US Bonds Avoid a Bigger Data-Driven Sell-Off
In a vacuum of "data dependency," today should hav...
Thu, Sep 14 2023, 12:13 PM
If you had to guess at what this morning's economic data would have done to the bond market ahead of time, current trading levels would almost certain...
Wed, Sep 13 2023, 4:32 PM
What's Up With The Paradoxical Post-CPI Rally?
The bond market stared down today's month-over-month core CPI...
Wed, Sep 13 2023, 12:31 PM
Core month-over-month CPI came in at 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast. This would be bad for bonds at first glance, and indeed it was--at least initially....
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 4:59 PM
Calm Waters Again, But Tomorrow Could Rock The Boat
Much like yesterday (which saw the narrowest 10yr yield ...
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 10:39 AM
Bonds may be up a bit and down a bit between now and yesterday's close, but none of it is super consequential in the bigger picture. Of course there ...
Mon, Sep 11 2023, 3:49 PM
Flattest Trading Day in 2 Years
Bonds began the overnight session in slightly weaker territory and held almo...
Mon, Sep 11 2023, 12:33 PM
At times over the past 2 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been the most important economic report on any given month and has had a bigger imp...
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