“Sometimes, someone unexpected comes into your life outta nowhere, makes your heart race, and changes you forever. We call those people cops. (Where did you think that was going?)” Lots of people want to know what to expect with interest rates and, surprisingly, pay some firms to predict the future. (Everyone out there is striving for business regardless of the direction of interest rates.) Here’s something for free: Morgan Stanley, for one, doesn’t see any Fed rate cuts until 2026. LOs can depend on interest rates for their livelihood: ongoing subdued mortgage originations are forcing mortgage brokers, and MLOs in general, to move beyond just agency originations to other loan products such as non-QM, home-equity, and investor financing. Such alternative offerings provide a lifeline to additional income avenues for originators. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Wholesale Mortgage Direct (WMD), whose mission is to deliver high demand, innovative products unique to the wholesale industry, including MyEQNow, which is one-of-a-kind TraDigital HELOC platform. WMD is your trusted partner for innovative HELOC, NonQM and/or Reverse options. Interview with ABL’s Kevin Rodman on how hard money lending has evolved, what innovations are shaping the future, and why private capital is gaining ground in today’s high-rate, high-stakes real estate market.)

Products, Services, and Software for Lenders and Brokers

“Your AI Command Center for HELOCs! NFTYDoor just launched its most powerful platform yet: an AI-powered HELOC experience built to help you move faster, communicate smarter, and scale with ease. 1-Minute Application: Whether it’s you or your borrower, get instant PreQual results… Some “Fast Pass” loans close in as little as same day. Built-In Chat + SMS. No more email chains. Instantly message our team or your borrower: everything in one place. Designed to Scale: Add your assistant, customize your notifications, and streamline how you manage your pipeline. This isn’t just a LOS. It’s your all-in-one task manager, communication hub, and real-time visibility engine. Built with transparency. Designed for maximum conversion. Now live on NFTYDoor: digital HELOCs made fast, simple, and profitable. Want to see it in action? Register for our live demo THIS Wednesday at 1pm ET.”

Flyhomes is helping LOs like you close an average of 1.2 more deals per month by giving borrowers the power to buy before they sell. Here’s what your borrowers receive: Buy with $0 down, make cash-like offers that can win, unlock equity upfront without having to sell the home first, and reduce DTI and qualify for up to 50 percent more. And there’s a bonus: No monthly payments required for their loan products. Interest accrues and pays off at closing, so your clients move forward without the stress. For the past 10 years, Flyhomes has been a pioneer and leader in providing innovative financial products, helping 5,000+ buyers purchase their next home. Now their Buy Before You Sell solution is available in 29 states. Book a call today to learn more!

FundingShield, the leader in wire & title fraud prevention, released its Q2-2025 report showing 46.6% of transactions had deficiencies from $81 Billion transactions protected. During Q2-2025, 9.4% of transactions had CPL Validation issues, 44.4% CPL issues, 8.57% wire/bank account-related findings. These trends underscore the need for source-data verification with independently validated datasets in closing workflows. “As fraud risks and regulatory expectations grow, we must strengthen controls around data accuracy, third-party oversight, and transaction integrity. These needs are reflected in FHFA guidance, GSE selling guides & MORA Audits, and compliance standards. FundingShield supports these efforts with a 5 year+ track record of providing real-time, source-data based validation of closing agents, licensing, insurance, wire and transaction data, helping institutions meet regulatory requirements, reduce fraud exposure, and improve loan quality through trusted, independently verified data and embedded remediation solutions,” shared Ike Suri, CEO. Contact Sales@fundingshield.com for demos/trials, Meet us at CMBA Western-Secondary, Innovate2025, CMBA Western-CREF, ACUMA Annual, MISMO Fall Summit, MBA Compliance/Risk.”

“LoanStream Wholesale encourages brokers to fatten up your pipeline with SUMMER SPECIALS from LoanStream (DBA of OCMBC, Inc.) Up to 75 bps price improvement on non-QM, FHA, and VA loans locked July 1st – 31st. Includes 25 BPS non-QM (all programs except DSCR 5-8) 75 bps improvement when combined with non-QM Select & Closed End Seconds. 25 bps price improvement on all FHA/VA (excludes CalHFA can be combined with SELECT) Get 60 bps when combined with our Select Government Special. Restrictions apply, talk to your AE. Learn more here.”

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Upcoming Events and Training

July is definitely a quiet time, conference-wise, but things pick up in a hurry in August through Thanksgiving. Every conference has an LTV ratio: the percent of “Lenders to Vendors.” Cutting edge mortgage stats aside, a good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future; and organizers can post their event.

August 3-5, in Frankenmeuth, Michigan, the MMLA will host its annual soiree.

August 11-13, who doesn’t want to attend the fabled California MBA’s Western Secondary? “Golf anyone? Looking for another great networking opportunity and a day of fun? Join us for the 2025 CAMPAC Golf Tournament on Monday, August 11th in Rancho Palos Verdes, which is also the unofficial kickoff of the Western Secondary Market Conference! Proceeds for this event support the political action committee of the California MBA which allows the association to maintain a strong political presence in California. This event sells out every year so lock in your foursome today! For more information, contact registration@cmba.com.”

September 7 through the 10th, in Boise, Idaho, is the Pacific Northwest Mortgage conference. Hear from the MBA Chairperson Laura Escobar, forward thinker Kristin Messerli, Guild’s David Battany, Robbie and Rob Chrisman, and other top-notch speakers about our industry and where we’re going.

If you’re near New York, check out the annual NYMBA’s convention 9/15-9/17.

Registration is officially open for ACUMA’s 2025 Make Your Mark Annual Conference! Join credit union lending professionals and industry leaders from across the country September 21–24 in Denver, Colorado, for one of the year's most impactful credit union mortgage events. This year’s conference promises dynamic speakers, timely insights, hands-on learning, and powerful networking opportunities. Whether you're returning or attending for the first time, this is your chance to make connections that matter and be part of shaping the future of credit union mortgage lending.

“The 2025 Loan Vision Innovation Conference is where mortgage finance leaders come to connect, learn, and innovate. Join us in Atlanta, GA, from September 22-24 for three days of expert-led sessions, real-world strategies, and networking with the best in the industry. From cutting-edge technology to efficiency-boosting insights, LVIC25 is designed to help you drive profitability and stay ahead of the curve. Don’t miss your chance to be part of the premier event for mortgage banking professionals! Register now! Rob Chrisman is back on the main stage at the 2025 Loan Vision Innovation Conference! Connect with top lenders and financial leaders shaping the future. Register now!

The 2025 MBA Annual Convention & Expo will begin October 19 in Las Vegas.

On November 19th the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis will have a fine luncheon with a discussion of industry trends.

On November 20th, the Mortgage Bankers Association of Kansas City will have its annual BBQ/Thanksgiving event! Watch for sign-ups.

Capital Markets

Markets may be pricing in less than a 5 percent likelihood of a rate cut on July 30, but that hasn’t kept investors from working out how to position themselves just in case President Trump does fire Fed Chair Powell (spoiler alert: it’s unlikely, for a variety of reasons that this Commentary has previously outlined). The independence of the central bank was a key theme last week, after a media report that Trump was likely to fire Powell soon. Trump eventually walked back the speculation. Treasury yields stabilized following those Powell-related headlines, with markets now viewing the September FOMC meeting as the next potential opportunity for a rate cut.

In more worthwhile news, we learned last week that key inflation readings in the core consumer price index and the core producer price index for June came in softer than expected, shushing worries that President Trump's trade war would have a big impact on prices. Moreover, June retail sales blew past estimates. With the impact of recent tariffs yet to fully materialize in the data, upcoming data will be pivotal in shaping the Fed’s next steps.

Friday’s data showed a 4.6 percent rise in housing starts for June, alongside a modest 0.2 percent uptick in permits, largely driven by a rebound in multifamily construction. However, single-family starts declined and permits fell for the fourth consecutive month, as high mortgage rates and home prices continue to suppress buyer demand and deter new single-family building, while affordability pressures are pushing more households toward rentals, fueling renewed momentum in the multifamily sector.

This week’s data is less of the higher tier, as is usually the case for the third full week of the month. Data of note includes leading indicators, Fed surveys, PMI flashes, and housing data. The Fed is in blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, but Chair Powell and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman will appear at a Fed conference on the regulatory capital framework for large banks tomorrow. Outside of the Fed, the ECB will be out with its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday morning, where the expectation is to hold rates steady. For MBS, Class D 48-hours is tomorrow and equity earnings releases continue. June leading indicators kick off today’s calendar later this morning. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices better than Friday’s close by .125-.250, the 2-year yielding 3.84, and the 10-year yielding 4.37 after closing last week at 4.43 percent.