Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:07 AM
On Tuesday, bonds had an initial, positive reaction to the Retail Sales data that clearly ended mere minutes after the release. Yields trended slight...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 4:13 PM
Additional Mid-Day Gains Independent of Data and Events
Bonds traded the day in two distinct sections. Firs...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 10:19 AM
It's nearly impossible to avoid hearing the phrase "data dependent" when following financial markets these days and this morning's movement is the lat...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:40 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Give Back Some of Last Week's Gains
After rallying from roughly 4.45 to 4.22% l...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 11:17 AM
Last week, MBS underperformance was front and center. One of the justifications was the fact that MBS almost always underperform when Treasuries go o...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 3:36 PM
Once More: What's Up With MBS Underperformance?
The notion of MBS underperforming Treasuries is front and ce...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 1:07 PM
The bond market has a lot on its mind after this past week of economic data and events. Inflation quickly and increasingly looks like it may (finally...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 3:46 PM
Helpful Data, MBS Underperformance, Is This Time Different?
The bond market reacted favorably to this mornin...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 10:48 AM
In a nutshell, this morning's economic data rapidly reversed the weakness seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, thus restoring the lowest yields ac...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:22 PM
Massive CPI Rally Cut in Half After Fed Announcement
As discussed in the AM commentary, bonds rallied sharpl...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate ha...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 10:32 AM
There are so many line items in the CPI data that it would be hard to imagine a truly perfect report. In today's case, one could still take exception...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:53 PM
Treasury Auction Helps Bonds Hold The Range
If yesterday was a placeholder ahead of bigger ticket events, an...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 10:20 AM
Not every day is destined to be significant (or even interesting) for the bond market. Depending on the outcome of today's only relevant calendar eve...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 3:24 PM
Straightforward Session as Traders Wait For More
Monday ended up being rather uneventful for the bond despit...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 10:55 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has done more than any other report to shape trends in the bond market in the past year. At times (such as the middle ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 4:06 PM
What Jobs Report? Bring on CPI and the Fed
Bonds made it almost all week putting on a superhuman display of...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 12:23 PM
Whether it was a magical combination of Treasury auction timing and new month trading or a legitimate shift in response to Monday's ISM Manufacturing ...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 4:12 PM
Bonds Continue Taking Their Seats Ahead of The Big Show
Although bonds continued to improve yesterday, the p...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 10:00 AM
We've been anticipating this week of data for the past 3 weeks and it has been delivering on the promise of increased motivation for the bond market. ...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 4:08 PM
Counterintuitive Reaction to Data, But We're Not Upset
The bond market did not stick to its usual script tod...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 10:52 AM
ISM produces two PMIs. Both of them have a strong track record of inspiring market movement with today's service sector version being the bigger deal...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 4:16 PM
More Gains After JOLTS, But They Might Have Happened Anyway
The winning streak continues for the bond market...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 9:56 AM
Once again, the bond market is starting the domestic session with 10yr yields several bps lower day-over-day. We can credit European bonds for that o...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 3:22 PM
Solid Gains Despite MBS Underperformance
US Treasuries had a tough time digesting auction supply last week, ...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 10:23 AM
As far as economic data goes, there's CPI, NFP, and then there's everything else. In the "everything else" category, a small group of 3-6 report vie ...
Fri, May 31 2024, 4:23 PM
Data Driven Rally, But Next Week's Data is More Important
By the end of this holiday-shortened week, bonds d...
Fri, May 31 2024, 11:13 AM
This week's most hotly anticipated report--monthly core PCE inflation--came in 0.2% versus a median forecast of 0.3% this morning. That's welcome new...
Thu, May 30 2024, 4:21 PM
Stale PCE Helped; Fresher Version Up Next
The quarterly vs monthly PCE reports are potential sources of conf...
Thu, May 30 2024, 11:57 AM
Wednesday proved to be frustrating for bond market watchers and fans of low rates. Yields rose to the highest levels in several weeks without any sat...
Wed, May 29 2024, 4:02 PM
Concocting a Narrative to Fit The Market Movement
There are certain days and even weeks where the bond marke...
Wed, May 29 2024, 11:36 AM
While US bonds were busy holding inside a narrow sideways range through the end of last week, pressure was building in the European bond market. When...
Tue, May 28 2024, 3:49 PM
Relatively Sharp Losses, but Nothing Special in The Bigger Picture
Bonds began the day modestly stronger, an...
Tue, May 28 2024, 11:54 AM
Last week was notable for its absence of any notable developments--an outcome we considered to be the "guilty until proven innocent" baseline and the ...
Fri, May 24 2024, 2:57 PM
The 11-Day Weekend is Now Official
If there was one objective hurdle to clear in order to consider the prese...
Fri, May 24 2024, 8:57 AM
If there were any remaining doubts regarding the relevance of Durable Goods as a big ticket market mover, they are put to rest by the absence of a dis...
Thu, May 23 2024, 4:17 PM
Surprisingly Strong Surge in Services PMI Tests The Range
Perhaps fate was tempted by our persistent focus o...
Thu, May 23 2024, 9:02 AM
It's day 6 of the increasingly famous 11-day weekend (1 normal weekend plus the 3 day Memorial Day weekend and the 5 days in between without any big t...
Wed, May 22 2024, 4:58 PM
No Major Reaction to Fed Minutes
Today's only event that has any precedent of inspiring rate volatility was ...
Wed, May 22 2024, 10:37 AM
It's unclear if the industry can recover from what is surely one of the most troubling rate spikes in modern economic history. Invoking one of the mos...
Tue, May 21 2024, 3:52 PM
No Fireworks Expected From Fed Minutes
Day 4 of the 11 day weekend is in the books and the bond market did e...
Tue, May 21 2024, 10:50 AM
Ever since the inflation data in Q1 proved to be less rate-friendly than we might have hoped, the Fed has been exactly as unfriendly as we might have ...
Mon, May 20 2024, 3:33 PM
Mostly Flat After Initial Weakness
There's a risk that a theme will emerge in the coming days, but a theme t...
Mon, May 20 2024, 11:16 AM
It's not too common to refer to a week with Fed meeting minutes as "super slow," but at the risk of complacency, how could the Fed possibly share any ...
Fri, May 17 2024, 3:31 PM
Moderate, Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost ground at a modest to moderate clip on Friday, but not for any...
Fri, May 17 2024, 11:12 AM
Friday's only scheduled economic report is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index. It is not considered a timely market mover...
Thu, May 16 2024, 5:00 PM
Gradual Weakness All Day And a Quieter Calendar Ahead
Today brought the last of the scheduled economic data ...
Thu, May 16 2024, 12:02 PM
It's the day after the CPI data and thus begins a concerted effort over the next few weeks to avoid compiling every piece of commentary as a simple co...
Wed, May 15 2024, 3:04 PM
Like The Last CPI Never Even Happened
The much anticipated CPI data was perfectly in line with expectations ...
Wed, May 15 2024, 10:29 AM
First off: the bond market rallied after the CPI data came out and remains in much stronger territory vs yesterday. That said, the more context we ad...
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