Thu, Aug 15 2024, 10:15 AM
It's a surprisingly straightforward morning for the bond market. The two most important economic reports did exactly the opposite of what bond bulls ...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 5:06 PM
Uncommonly Flat CPI Reaction
Over the past year, the average CPI day can be picked out on a chart of daily b...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 11:51 AM
These things happen... While it's true that CPI is one of the two hardest-hitting economic reports (the other being the jobs report), it's also true ...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 4:40 PM
PPI Drives Decent Rally; But CPI Packs a Bigger Punch
This morning's core m/m Producer Price Index hit 0.0% ...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 8:41 AM
Although last month's CPI data was well-received by the bond market for coming in below expectations and showing a notable drop in the shelter compone...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 4:48 PM
Uneventful Monday With Modest Gains
From a volume standpoint, both Friday and today were very light. This i...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 11:43 AM
Summertime Fridays and Mondays are prone to low volumes--especially when they are virtually data-free, as is the case to begin the new week. The pere...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 5:25 PM
Straightforward, Uneventful Session Caps The Correction
Bonds have been in correction mode for almost the en...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 11:00 AM
Now that it's essentially over, it's easy to label this week as a quintessential consolidation and/or modest correction. In fact, even before it bega...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 3:06 PM
Why Jobless Claims Data Moved Markets More Than Normal
Weekly jobless claims data is far from irrelevant, bu...
Thu, Aug 8 2024, 10:58 AM
"Crushed" is likely too harsh a term for what we're seeing this morning, but were it not for Monday morning's paradigm stretching reversal, this morni...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 5:33 PM
Bonds Selling Off Like it Was Always The Plan
Very little transpired during Wednesday's trading session to c...
Wed, Aug 7 2024, 10:33 AM
Coming into this week, the most logical base case was for a moderate correction in the bond market owing to the strong rally last week and the absence...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 4:39 PM
MBS Outperform as Bonds Aggressively Unwind Weekend Rally
There's been no shortage of directional movement o...
Tue, Aug 6 2024, 11:23 AM
Global markets are still recovering from yesterday's wild ride. In general, that has involved gains for stocks and losses in bonds. It's also probabl...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 5:17 PM
Wild Ride Leaves MBS Weaker After Super Strong Start
Bonds surged to stronger levels overnight amid a global...
Mon, Aug 5 2024, 11:33 AM
In the overnight session, the rest of the world decided it was just as concerned about the Fed potentially having waited too long to cut rates as some...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 4:03 PM
Bonds Rapidly Repricing Reality After Jobs Report
Yes, today was "just one" jobs report. And yes, there are...
Fri, Aug 2 2024, 11:16 AM
This is one of those weeks that stands a good chance of being looked back up as the moment where the clouds of indecision parted and true trends were ...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 5:02 PM
Rates Taking an Assumptive Lead-Off Ahead of Jobs Report?
Suddenly, something has changed in the bond market...
Thu, Aug 1 2024, 10:13 AM
Bonds were exceptionally sideways in the overnight session with 10yr yields holding between 4.05 and 4.06 for almost the entirety. It wasn't until the...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 5:28 PM
Surprisingly Strong Reaction to Equivocal Powell
Opinions certainly vary as to whether today's communication...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, moderated, and the unempl...
Wed, Jul 31 2024, 8:50 AM
While there is still one market moving economic report left this morning, the first two have been bond friendly with both ADP and the Employment Cost ...
Tue, Jul 30 2024, 4:06 PM
Data and Headlines Drive Modest Volatility Ahead of The Fed
There were two different bouts of modest volatil...
Tue, Jul 30 2024, 12:28 PM
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) became an occasionally major market mover over the past few years as traders looked for any availab...
Mon, Jul 29 2024, 4:14 PM
No Bad News in Today's Treasury Announcement
There have been a few occasions in the past few years where Tre...
Mon, Jul 29 2024, 11:41 AM
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight with some of the improvement seen right at the start of the session and a majority following the start of Eur...
Fri, Jul 26 2024, 6:04 PM
Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data
While today's monthly core PCE headline may have techni...
Fri, Jul 26 2024, 11:58 AM
After yesterday's quarter over quarter core PCE price index came in 0.2% higher than expected, we knew today's monthly PCE data would have to include ...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 3:29 PM
Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range
Today marked an uptick in the importance ...
Thu, Jul 25 2024, 11:44 AM
It was easy to question the notion of "data dependence" in the first half of the week, largely because there wasn't much in terms of meaningful econom...
Wed, Jul 24 2024, 4:30 PM
Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent?
Bonds began the day in stronger territory and remained stro...
Wed, Jul 24 2024, 12:07 PM
While they may not be the most highly consequential economic reports on any given month, today's S&P Global PMIs were our best shot to see some volati...
Tue, Jul 23 2024, 4:23 PM
Afternoon Weakness For Longer-Term Bonds. Are MBS in That Category?
It's easy to throw around general catego...
Tue, Jul 23 2024, 11:39 AM
This morning's market movement continues to build a case against yesterday's mid-day sell-off being serious and purposeful. Bonds have continued to r...
Mon, Jul 22 2024, 5:02 PM
Mid-Day Mystery Move But no Impact on Bigger Picture
The most notable development in the bond market today w...
Mon, Jul 22 2024, 11:22 AM
If there was any remaining doubt that recent political headlines were given too much credit for impacting the bond market, it was removed late Sunday ...
Fri, Jul 19 2024, 5:22 PM
Super Duper Flat After Overnight Losses
In a vacuum limited to this week, Friday ended up being the only int...
Fri, Jul 19 2024, 10:26 AM
This week's bond rally hit a wall at the 3pm close on Wednesday. There's been gradual upward pressure since then with today's overnight session seein...
Thu, Jul 18 2024, 5:08 PM
Morning Volatility, Afternoon Drift
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory before undergoing a bit...
Thu, Jul 18 2024, 12:49 PM
Today's Jobless Claims report is for the week ending July 13th. This is important because the establishment survey for the big jobs report (nonfarm p...
Wed, Jul 17 2024, 4:43 PM
More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims?
Bonds have been trending gently stronger after last week's ...
Wed, Jul 17 2024, 11:28 AM
Just because an economic calendar is full doesn't mean it's of any major importance to the bond market. Today fits the bill with the two economic hea...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 4:16 PM
Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger
This morning's Retail Sales data may have been right in ...
Tue, Jul 16 2024, 10:41 AM
Retail Sales was/is the biggest data point of the week and it came out perfectly unchanged. This was as-expected according to some data aggregators a...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 4:45 PM
The Sun Also Sets on Bond Rallies
Don't worry, the headline is much more dire than the underlying message. ...
Mon, Jul 15 2024, 11:40 AM
While there's no way objectively quantify the political ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, ...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 4:44 PM
Pleasant PPI Paradox Leaves This Week's Big Victory in Focus
The Producer Price Index (PPI) introduced a bri...
Fri, Jul 12 2024, 11:40 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is certainly not in the same league as CPI when it comes to bond market impact, but there have been several notable rea...
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