Wed, May 28 2025, 12:14 PM
After starting the holiday-shortened week on a positive note yesterday, bonds are already circling the wagons and encountering some resistance. This d...
Tue, May 27 2025, 5:20 PM
Bonds Finally Seeing Some Support
Whether one wants to give credit to the big rally in Japanese bonds, the w...
Tue, May 27 2025, 11:33 AM
Last week's overseas headlines raised questions about about a spillover from volatility in the Japanese bond market to US yields. At issue: attention-...
Fri, May 23 2025, 3:34 PM
A Little Early Excitement
Bonds began the day with a bit of excitement following Trump comments on raising E...
Fri, May 23 2025, 10:37 AM
The most notable development on what might otherwise have been a sleepy half-day ahead of a holiday weekend was Trump's "recommendation" of a 50% tari...
Thu, May 22 2025, 4:38 PM
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker
Bond yields have moved almost exclusively higher in Ma...
Thu, May 22 2025, 10:06 AM
The most significant development of the overnight session was the early morning passage of the spending bill in the House. This resulted in only a mod...
Wed, May 21 2025, 4:34 PM
Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun
Vigilante justice! Taking matters into one's own ha...
Wed, May 21 2025, 10:50 AM
We're now into the 3rd day of a week that's conspicuously lacking in relevant econ data. In addition, the looming holiday weekend hinders participatio...
Tue, May 20 2025, 5:01 PM
Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination
Here's a quick and easy method for imagining that bonds ...
Tue, May 20 2025, 10:11 AM
It's a holiday-shortened week with a relatively empty economic calendar, thus forcing the bond market to find its movement cues elsewhere. To some sma...
Mon, May 19 2025, 3:51 PM
(Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness
The sharp overnight losses in stocks and bonds were consisten...
Mon, May 19 2025, 9:10 AM
When Moody's announced the surprise cut of the US credit rating on Friday, there were only a few minutes left to trade and all but the latest working ...
Fri, May 16 2025, 5:26 PM
Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade
Bonds began the day stronger after a gentle o...
Fri, May 16 2025, 10:34 AM
One might assume that an economic report like Import Prices would carry a lot of weight in light of the news cycle or that the highest 1yr inflation e...
Thu, May 15 2025, 4:25 PM
Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses
Wednesday's weakness was severely lacking in the scapego...
Thu, May 15 2025, 9:58 AM
This morning's market action is quickly helping us understand the enigmatic trading seen yesterday (i.e. a sell-off without any great scapegoats). Re...
Wed, May 14 2025, 5:08 PM
Another "Just Because" Sell Off
This is getting old... and unfortunately, more prevalent. The bond market h...
Wed, May 14 2025, 11:13 AM
It's a potentially frustrating time for bond watchers. The rules have already changed in a big way to accommodate the new wild card presented by tarif...
Tue, May 13 2025, 5:07 PM
Bonds End Almost Perfectly Flat
There are two kinds of rate/bond watchers today: those who tuned in late in...
Tue, May 13 2025, 10:49 AM
Heading into the session, we knew there was a high bar for CPI to have a positive influence on bonds with the future tariff landscape reducing the rel...
Mon, May 12 2025, 5:07 PM
Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter?
At times these day, it may seem like all news is bad news ...
Mon, May 12 2025, 11:01 AM
10yr yields were up 8bps overnight to the highest levels since April 11th after weekend trade talks between the US and China resulted in significant r...
Fri, May 9 2025, 5:07 PM
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly mov...
Fri, May 9 2025, 11:04 AM
A glance at today's economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events. But what can the Fed ...
Thu, May 8 2025, 4:52 PM
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
Bonds ended up selling off somewhat sharply today with...
Thu, May 8 2025, 11:00 AM
Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data. This consisted of Jobless Claims ...
Wed, May 7 2025, 4:34 PM
Just as Underwhelming as Expected
No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even...
Wed, May 7 2025, 2:00 PM
Recent Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pa...
Wed, May 7 2025, 11:04 AM
Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular rea...
Tue, May 6 2025, 4:10 PM
10yr Auction to The Rescue
Today's 10yr Treasury auction was the only relevant calendar event in terms of po...
Tue, May 6 2025, 10:37 AM
Bonds have been on both sides of unchanged so far today. The overnight session began with slightly higher yields followed by a gradual rally. By 9am ...
Mon, May 5 2025, 4:30 PM
Selling Spree Continues, But Gently
Bonds were focused on this morning's ISM Services Index with some trader...
Mon, May 5 2025, 10:29 AM
The ISM Services PMI is this morning's key data, and arguably, the most relevant economic report of the week. Last week's ISM Manufacturing data wasn'...
Fri, May 2 2025, 4:17 PM
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
Bonds definitely paused their long term relationship with econ...
Fri, May 2 2025, 10:29 AM
It is shaping up to be a straightforward morning for the bond market. There was a justified and logical amount of anticipation for today's numbers and...
Thu, May 1 2025, 4:19 PM
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility
Today's ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canar...
Thu, May 1 2025, 11:26 AM
2 weeks ago, we got our first hint that the market was once again ready to respond to economic data after a few weeks of tariff headlines being the on...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 4:51 PM
Action Packed Calendar But No Major Action in Bonds
This morning's economic calendar was certainly the most ...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 11:31 AM
In terms of line items, Wednesday morning is the week's most active morning for economic reports. Several of them were potentially important, but the ...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 4:20 PM
Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck
Today's trading was almost a carbon copy of yesterday's with overni...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 10:50 AM
Once again, bonds were modestly weaker overnight and once again, that weakness is being reversed in early trading. Whereas scapegoats were nowhere to ...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 4:12 PM
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight but quickly moved into stron...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 11:39 AM
When getting a sense of what's happening in the bond market, it's frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on M...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 5:09 PM
Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day
After being heavily conditioned to expect elevated volatility wi...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 10:34 AM
Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the fin...
Thu, Apr 24 2025, 4:26 PM
Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons
Bonds improved moderately well overnight and added to those gains ste...
Thu, Apr 24 2025, 12:19 PM
What's "normal" for the bond market? That depends how far back you want to look. Starting in late February, we had about a month of mostly sideways m...
Wed, Apr 23 2025, 4:42 PM
Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data
Bonds started out sharply stronger toda...
Wed, Apr 23 2025, 10:17 AM
Two factors had been contributing more than others to drive bond yields higher as of yesterday. The broader, ongoing factor is/was the tariff/trade s...
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