Thu, Nov 21 2024, 12:13 PM
It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in ...
Wed, Nov 20 2024, 10:34 AM
There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday'...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 4:59 PM
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains
Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global ...
Tue, Nov 19 2024, 10:31 AM
Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When ...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 4:33 PM
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend
It was an uneventful Monday for the bond market. Economic data...
Mon, Nov 18 2024, 11:10 AM
While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that econom...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 3:41 PM
Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week
This morning began like many other recent mornings with econo...
Fri, Nov 15 2024, 9:28 AM
All 3 of this morning's 8:30am economic reports were stronger than expected, and the 9:15am report was right in line with expectations. Of these, Ret...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 4:34 PM
Powell Rains on Bond Market's Mini Parade
Today is a bit of a mirror image compared to yesterday. Bonds los...
Thu, Nov 14 2024, 10:01 AM
The morning has been both straightforward and interesting. The straightforward part involved a moderate sell-off following stronger economic data. J...
Wed, Nov 13 2024, 10:20 AM
Bonds managed a moderate rally in response to this morning's inflation data. While it has since been mostly erased, it was as strong of a showing as ...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 4:35 PM
Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately)
Bonds sold off on Tuesday both during the domestic s...
Tue, Nov 12 2024, 9:24 AM
In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could b...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 6:14 PM
Back to Uneventful Already?
MBS are ending the trading day at almost perfectly unchanged levels--not the sor...
Fri, Nov 8 2024, 11:41 AM
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old aphorism in financial markets for a reason. It accurately speaks to the real and repeatable phenomenon w...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 5:12 PM
Breaking Down The Big Non-Fed-Related Rally
As intraday charts give way to daily charts in the coming weeks,...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains Since earlier in the year, labor market conditio...
Thu, Nov 7 2024, 12:27 PM
This morning's only relevant economic data was weekly jobless claims. The headline was right in line with forecasts and the non-adjusted number keeps...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 5:29 PM
Does The Fed Still Matter?
Bonds sold off overnight as the reality of Trump's victory became apparent. Trad...
Wed, Nov 6 2024, 9:45 AM
Heading into the election, we knew the bond market was losing ground in concert with improving odds of a Trump victory and red sweep. After being sur...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Bonds Brace For Election Results
It was an interesting round trip for the bond market today as overnight wea...
Tue, Nov 5 2024, 11:08 AM
Last week could easily have left us with the impression that the bond market's love affair with economic data was put on hold until after the election...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 4:13 PM
Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility
While the average day of the past few weeks has involved elec...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 10:08 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the sh...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 5:07 PM
Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 12k versus a median forecast of 113...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 10:06 AM
When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 4:53 PM
Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention?
It's been a weird week so far with a crazy combination o...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 12:16 PM
If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 4:35 PM
Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given ...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 11:26 AM
It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slight...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 4:40 PM
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 10:18 AM
As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Doing What Bonds Do
Another week, another chance for bonds to do the only thing it seems like they kno...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 10:40 AM
After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From ...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 3:40 PM
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish
Bonds had a fine morning with overnight gains bringing yields in line with the...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 11:17 AM
Granted, we were by no means looking for big things from this morning's Durable Goods data, but somehow it still managed to underwhelm. That's not sa...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 4:56 PM
Better Balance, Finally
In the context of the first 3 days of the week, bonds pulled off a miracle today. M...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 10:31 AM
Thursday morning brought the week's only arguably important economic data in the form of Jobless Claims and S&P's PMIs. Both have a decent track reco...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Why Would Rates Care About a One-Party Sweep?
Our morning commentary resulted in widespread questions regard...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 10:13 AM
For those of you who already feel like you fully understand the message in Tuesday's recap, the next few days and weeks might get a little repetitive,...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 4:35 PM
Much Calmer, But Risks Remain
Bonds had a significantly calmer day in terms of day-over-day change. In fact...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 10:30 AM
Monday was frustrating for the bond market. It was a medium large sell-off that would have made more sense as a flat, forgettable Monday. The only th...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 4:48 PM
Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts
Every year there are a few days where bonds mo...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 12:16 PM
First off, there's no great explanation for the extent to which bonds are losing ground this morning. These days happen occasionally. Sometimes an e...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday
Bonds were technically a hair weaker in the overnig...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 11:02 AM
While the recent trend has been unpleasant for the bond market, at least it's logical. Apart from some uncertainty related to the election and forthc...
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 5:27 PM
Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact
Bonds dealt with a trifecta of unfriendly economic data...
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 11:53 AM
Ever since last Thursday's econ data failed to cause a stir in financial markets, we knew we'd be waiting until today for big, data-driven volatility ...
Wed, Oct 16 2024, 4:24 PM
Thursday Morning is This Week's Biggest Volatility Risk
While there was certainly a bit of an upward drift i...
Wed, Oct 16 2024, 10:48 AM
The market was hungry for data before the jobs report week and has been even hungrier since then. Unfortunately, there haven't been many compelling r...
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