Fri, May 31 2024, 4:23 PM
Data Driven Rally, But Next Week's Data is More Important
By the end of this holiday-shortened week, bonds d...
Fri, May 31 2024, 11:13 AM
This week's most hotly anticipated report--monthly core PCE inflation--came in 0.2% versus a median forecast of 0.3% this morning. That's welcome new...
Thu, May 30 2024, 4:21 PM
Stale PCE Helped; Fresher Version Up Next
The quarterly vs monthly PCE reports are potential sources of conf...
Thu, May 30 2024, 11:57 AM
Wednesday proved to be frustrating for bond market watchers and fans of low rates. Yields rose to the highest levels in several weeks without any sat...
Wed, May 29 2024, 4:02 PM
Concocting a Narrative to Fit The Market Movement
There are certain days and even weeks where the bond marke...
Wed, May 29 2024, 11:36 AM
While US bonds were busy holding inside a narrow sideways range through the end of last week, pressure was building in the European bond market. When...
Tue, May 28 2024, 3:49 PM
Relatively Sharp Losses, but Nothing Special in The Bigger Picture
Bonds began the day modestly stronger, an...
Tue, May 28 2024, 11:54 AM
Last week was notable for its absence of any notable developments--an outcome we considered to be the "guilty until proven innocent" baseline and the ...
Fri, May 24 2024, 2:57 PM
The 11-Day Weekend is Now Official
If there was one objective hurdle to clear in order to consider the prese...
Fri, May 24 2024, 8:57 AM
If there were any remaining doubts regarding the relevance of Durable Goods as a big ticket market mover, they are put to rest by the absence of a dis...
Thu, May 23 2024, 4:17 PM
Surprisingly Strong Surge in Services PMI Tests The Range
Perhaps fate was tempted by our persistent focus o...
Thu, May 23 2024, 9:02 AM
It's day 6 of the increasingly famous 11-day weekend (1 normal weekend plus the 3 day Memorial Day weekend and the 5 days in between without any big t...
Wed, May 22 2024, 4:58 PM
No Major Reaction to Fed Minutes
Today's only event that has any precedent of inspiring rate volatility was ...
Wed, May 22 2024, 10:37 AM
It's unclear if the industry can recover from what is surely one of the most troubling rate spikes in modern economic history. Invoking one of the mos...
Tue, May 21 2024, 3:52 PM
No Fireworks Expected From Fed Minutes
Day 4 of the 11 day weekend is in the books and the bond market did e...
Tue, May 21 2024, 10:50 AM
Ever since the inflation data in Q1 proved to be less rate-friendly than we might have hoped, the Fed has been exactly as unfriendly as we might have ...
Mon, May 20 2024, 3:33 PM
Mostly Flat After Initial Weakness
There's a risk that a theme will emerge in the coming days, but a theme t...
Mon, May 20 2024, 11:16 AM
It's not too common to refer to a week with Fed meeting minutes as "super slow," but at the risk of complacency, how could the Fed possibly share any ...
Fri, May 17 2024, 3:31 PM
Moderate, Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost ground at a modest to moderate clip on Friday, but not for any...
Fri, May 17 2024, 11:12 AM
Friday's only scheduled economic report is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index. It is not considered a timely market mover...
Thu, May 16 2024, 5:00 PM
Gradual Weakness All Day And a Quieter Calendar Ahead
Today brought the last of the scheduled economic data ...
Thu, May 16 2024, 12:02 PM
It's the day after the CPI data and thus begins a concerted effort over the next few weeks to avoid compiling every piece of commentary as a simple co...
Wed, May 15 2024, 3:04 PM
Like The Last CPI Never Even Happened
The much anticipated CPI data was perfectly in line with expectations ...
Wed, May 15 2024, 10:29 AM
First off: the bond market rallied after the CPI data came out and remains in much stronger territory vs yesterday. That said, the more context we ad...
Tue, May 14 2024, 4:45 PM
Bonds Ready to go Big in Either Direction
If you only had 1 day per month to allocate to watching the bond m...
Tue, May 14 2024, 9:04 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) isn't in the same league as CPI when it comes to market movement potential, but as seen again this morning, it's no slo...
Mon, May 13 2024, 4:41 PM
What You See Today Won't Necessarily Be What You See Tomorrow
With essentially nothing on the event calendar...
Mon, May 13 2024, 11:17 AM
In 2023 and especially 2024, the first bullet point in the bond market's job description is to focus on Core CPI above all other economic reports. In...
Fri, May 10 2024, 4:24 PM
Higher Inflation Expectations Keep Yields Range-Bound
It's not as if bond yields stood any real chance of br...
Fri, May 10 2024, 12:36 PM
The following should be prefaced with the reminder that it is impossible to predict the future with much precision when it comes to bond market moveme...
Thu, May 9 2024, 4:43 PM
Bonds Boosted by Data and Well-Received Auction
Jobless Claims data doesn't normally move the market, but it...
Thu, May 9 2024, 11:09 AM
It is a starkly data-free week for all intents and purposes, but some economic reports are with us as always on a weekly basis. Thursday's initial jo...
Wed, May 8 2024, 4:44 PM
Token Pull Back Keeps Things Boring
Coming into this week, we expected things to be boring and sideways afte...
Wed, May 8 2024, 11:41 AM
One of the notions surrounding the Treasury auction cycle is that the bond trading community tends to build in a "concession" ahead of any given aucti...
Tue, May 7 2024, 4:06 PM
Strong in The AM, Weaker in The PM
Bonds improved fairly steadily in the AM hours. After an initial glut of...
Tue, May 7 2024, 10:25 AM
The theme of "waiting" amid an empty calendar will be played out by the end of the week (if it's not already played out from most of the past year spe...
Mon, May 6 2024, 4:57 PM
Uneventful Start to What May be an Uneventful Week
Without any big ticket events or major news headlines, it...
Mon, May 6 2024, 11:09 AM
Last week was definitely important for the bond market. The key takeaway was the Fed's acknowledgement of elevated inflation in Q1 coupled with the a...
Fri, May 3 2024, 5:18 PM
Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back
Whether you view it as a perfectly logical reaction...
Fri, May 3 2024, 12:46 PM
On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market. Depending on the context, it still is. ...
Thu, May 2 2024, 4:26 PM
Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed to...
Thu, May 2 2024, 12:20 PM
Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn't mean we c...
Wed, May 1 2024, 4:49 PM
Decent Data and Palatable Powell
Bonds managed modest to moderate gains after digesting all of the morning's...
Wed, May 1 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the un...
Wed, May 1 2024, 8:57 AM
Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data. Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 4:39 PM
More Ammo For a Hawkish Fed, But Data is at Least as Important
Bonds began the day flat but lost ground quic...
Tue, Apr 30 2024, 12:26 PM
Steering clear of unfriendly economic data has been an increasingly challenging task for the bond market in April. While it might be an overstatement...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 4:02 PM
Decent Resilience in Spite of a Few Headwinds
Considering the volatility that may lie ahead, Monday ended up...
Mon, Apr 29 2024, 11:17 AM
Monday is one of the quietest days of the week although there will be a potentially important update at 3pm when Treasury releases borrowing estimates...
Fri, Apr 26 2024, 5:21 PM
Decent Recovery After Friday's PCE Numbers Clarify Thursday's PCE Numbers
Thursday's quarterly PCE numbers ...