Thu, Aug 3 2023, 11:16 AM
There's something rotten in the state of the bond market. After the early July CPI-driven rally seemed to put a ceiling on the range, there have been...
Wed, Aug 2 2023, 3:47 PM
Yields Briefly Hit 8 Month Highs
Bond yields spiked to their highest levels in more than 8 months this morni...
Wed, Aug 2 2023, 12:36 PM
Moments after bonds closed yesterday, Fitch downgraded the credit rating for the U.S. government. Few would disagree that the political criticism (by...
Tue, Aug 1 2023, 5:27 PM
Explaining Today's Inexplicable Weakness
If the bond market is well understood to be heavily "data dependent...
Tue, Aug 1 2023, 9:22 AM
The 8:20am CME Open is such a relevant event for the bond market sometimes that it has its own entry in our knowledge base. On any given morning, it'...
Mon, Jul 31 2023, 4:27 PM
Uneventful Start to What May be an Eventful Week
When there are multiple examples of important events that c...
Mon, Jul 31 2023, 12:05 PM
After the initial recovery from the Great Financial Crisis, and again after the Fed began to taper asset purchases at the end of 2013, there were two ...
Fri, Jul 28 2023, 4:43 PM
What to Make of This Week's Movement
Friday ended up being a slightly stronger session for bonds, but not in...
Fri, Jul 28 2023, 12:18 PM
Core PCE is often referred to as the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) has been one of the only few economic repo...
Thu, Jul 27 2023, 10:54 AM
Yesterday's closing headline and most condensed recap of Powell's press conference was simply: "data dependence continues." Indeed it does! This mor...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 4:38 PM
Needle Threaded. Data Dependence Continues
In today's post-rate-hike press conference, Fed Chair Powell mana...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand been expanding at a modest moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 10:50 AM
While there's always a chance that any of the year's 8 scheduled Fed announcements will thread the needle, today's installment is just as likely to pr...
Tue, Jul 25 2023, 4:29 PM
Just a Bit More Pre-Fed Positioning
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for the bond market despite st...
Tue, Jul 25 2023, 12:32 PM
After the last CPI report sent rates back down to the prevailing summertime range, we figured we'd be waiting until tomorrow's Fed day for the next bi...
Mon, Jul 24 2023, 4:52 PM
Slightly Weaker Momentum, But No Change in The Bigger Picture
Today's most notable market movement surrounde...
Mon, Jul 24 2023, 10:57 AM
Early last week, we shifted away from waiting on additional rally momentum from the previous week's rally and into a holding pattern ahead of this wee...
Fri, Jul 21 2023, 4:05 PM
Boring, Placeholder of a Day
Now that the riveting headline has your attention, you may be dismayed to learn...
Fri, Jul 21 2023, 9:46 AM
It's a summertime Friday in the bond market, so anything can happen. Bonds could undertake a huge rally or sell-off without any clear connection to a...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 5:28 PM
Not Too Soft, Jerome
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but up until the AM econ data, yields were no h...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 11:55 AM
Watching the bond market in real time can be stressful if you work in a highly rate-sensitive industry. There's a tendency to get caught up in the in...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 5:07 PM
Working Our Way Back to Powell
The last Fed meeting in June wasn't a huge market mover in and of itself, but...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 11:51 AM
After bonds rallied hard last week, EU bonds began to rally harder. This was most noticeable in the current week where 10yr Bund yields fell all the ...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 4:33 PM
Mixed Reaction to Data. Range Remains Intact
European bonds set the tone in the overnight session after a no...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 1:27 PM
Today's session was off to a stronger start thanks to a sharper rally in European bonds overnight, but domestic economic data pushed back early. This...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 4:17 PM
Slightly Stronger, Sideways, and Still Waiting
Monday's trading session offered little by way of anything si...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 12:33 PM
With the heightened focus on economic data as a means to track progress on the Fed's inflation-fighting policies, and the reality of the data calendar...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 4:12 PM
Good Times Still Mostly Rolling Despite Token Correction on Friday
Bonds sold off on Friday, with the easies...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 11:59 AM
Bonds rallied fairly hard during the first four days of the week, entirely restoring the ground lost in the previous week. Yesterday afternoon, we di...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 4:58 PM
Willingness to Rally Without Much Motivation
Bonds put in a nice day of gains after a mixed performance in t...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 11:50 AM
Thursday begins with 2 data points that could be traded either way. In one corner, we have another resilient reading in the Jobless Claims data (237k...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 3:40 PM
Great Reaction to CPI, But What's Next?
Today's CPI data serves the important role of pushing back on the na...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 10:49 AM
After plenty of anticipation over the past few days, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrived this morning with fairly good news for the bond market. C...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:48 PM
Bonds Will Rally After CPI (Or They'll Sell Off)
Let's not build up the upcoming CPI data too much. It's im...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 9:43 AM
After last Friday's jobs report, it was clear that we'd be waiting for this Wednesday's CPI data as the next relevant input for the bond market. Desp...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 3:53 PM
Sideways at Weak Levels Despite Monday's Rally
If we wanted to make the case for anything about the first tw...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 11:30 AM
The week begins with bonds in modestly stronger territory after a bit of initial volatility. None of the trading after last Friday's NFP has mattered...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 4:08 PM
NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally
Things could have gone better or worse today following t...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 12:13 PM
Despite missing the forecast by just a bit, today's NFP number is largely as expected (209k vs 225k f'cast and unemployment 3.6 vs 3.6). Bonds initia...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:29 PM
Data Confirms Bond Market Fears
Yesterday's recap suggested that bonds were bracing for impact from incoming...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 11:29 AM
We already know that bonds are especially sensitive to economic data right now, and we knew that today offered an uncommonly condensed schedule with s...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:51 PM
Bonds Brace For Impact From Data
Bonds sold off somewhat abruptly on Wednesday with little by way of overt j...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 12:00 PM
It may be Wednesday--a day that typically marks the midpoint of the bond market's work week--and it may be the week of the month with several of the b...
Mon, Jul 3 2023, 11:55 AM
Monday brings a courtesy trading day for bond market participants. Those who want/need to trade can do so while those who wanted the 4 day weekend do...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 4:20 PM
Month/Quarter-End Came Early
As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME clo...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 9:27 AM
Whereas Thursday's data was clearly bad for bonds/rates (ultimately creating a challenge to the 3.84 range ceiling), Friday's key morning data is rela...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:33 PM
Bonds Crushed by Data, But Technically Still in The Range
At many points in the past week, we've lamented th...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 9:44 AM
Technical analysis provides an easy entry point for folks who want to talk about what the markets might do next. It is made all the more alluring due...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:17 PM
Modest Relief Rally as Headline Risk Comes and Goes
Unlike yesterday, bonds didn't have any market moving ec...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 12:54 PM
Unlike yesterday, there is no meaningful economic data to move the needle this morning. Bonds continue biding their time, waiting for "meaningful." ...
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