Wed, Feb 14 2024, 12:20 PM
Wednesday is shaping up to be a victory based on early trading, with bonds pushing back tentatively on yesterday's big sell-off. The emphasis is on t...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 3:16 PM
Unfortunately, Bonds Did Exactly What They Were Supposed to Do Today
Over the course of the past two weeks, ...
Tue, Feb 13 2024, 9:58 AM
It is a very straightforward morning for the bond market, but not in any sort of pleasant way. There was a lot at stake heading into today's inflatio...
Mon, Feb 12 2024, 3:14 PM
No Way to Know What CPI Looks Like Until We See It
Monday was very much a placeholder in the grand scheme. ...
Mon, Feb 12 2024, 11:00 AM
Have you heard about the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? We can't shut up about it, largely because there's not much to talk about in terms of scheduled ...
Fri, Feb 9 2024, 4:14 PM
Uneventful Ceiling Defense
On a day where 10yr Treasury yields bounced multiple times at the 4.19% technical...
Fri, Feb 9 2024, 1:01 PM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the one thing we wait for after the jobs report comes out. After CPI, the one thing becomes the next jobs report (a...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 3:30 PM
Bonds Increasingly Look Like They're Waiting For CPI
It wouldn't be the first time and probably won't be the...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 12:55 PM
It's an interesting little interlude in the story of the bond market as yields wait to find out what's next after (probably) confirming long-term high...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 5:04 PM
Fed Speakers on Repeat as Bonds Hit Snooze
After several days of heavy volatility, the bond market is drifti...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 9:35 AM
After rising roughly 2bps yesterday afternoon, bond yields dropped just over 2bps right at the start of the overnight session with buzz surrounding Mo...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 4:02 PM
Magical Mystery Rally
Whereas the bond market had obvious, individual motivations for all phases of the shar...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 12:59 PM
When bond yields began spiking abruptly after last Friday's jobs report, one of the immediate saving graces was the fact that the late January highs w...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 3:23 PM
Big Losses Get Bigger After ISM Data
Bonds sold off again today, but this time in several distinct waves. T...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 9:55 AM
The bond market continues providing a great example big movement in the "little picture." Right out of the gate, if we examine just a slightly bigger...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Was The Jobs Report Real and What Are The Lasting Implications?
Is Friday's NFP number of 353k versus a 180k...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 12:43 PM
It's not really an exaggeration to say "no one saw it coming" with respect to this morning's jobs report. NFP hit 353k versus a forecast of 180k. 10...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 4:08 PM
Best Levels in More Than a Month Ahead of Jobs Report
At one point this morning, 10yr yields were close to b...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 12:03 PM
It is undoubtedly ironic that the Fed just removed a sentence that had been in the statement since March 2023 regarding the banking system being sound...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 5:18 PM
Lots of Volatility But Not Much to Do With The Fed
Today was indeed a Fed day and bonds definitely have a tr...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. been expanding at a solid pace. ...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 12:09 PM
In an interesting turn of events this morning, the Treasury refunding announcement has taken a back seat to econ data which has, in turn, taken a back...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 4:17 PM
Nice bounce back after AM Weakness
Job openings came in higher than expected this morning and immediately pu...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 12:39 PM
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) didn't used to matter to the bond market. That changed rather abruptly in the past 2 years as mark...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 4:37 PM
Solid Start But Data Dependent
Bonds started the day in slightly stronger territory with gains in both Asia ...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 12:16 PM
Monday is the only day of the present week without any major scheduled economic data. After that, it's game on with the increasingly meaningful JOLTS...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 3:00 PM
Uneventful Week. How About The Next One?
Sure... rates moved a bit higher this week as the bond market cont...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 11:34 AM
Once upon a time, the bond market looked to the PCE inflation data as the definitive measurement of the Fed's success regarding the 2% target. One ...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 3:27 PM
What's Up With Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger GDP?
We're not huge fans of the GDP report as a consistent ma...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 11:26 AM
Today's slate of economic data was/is the biggest of the week, by far. Results were mixed at 8:30am with higher jobless claims and weaker durable goo...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 4:18 PM
Weak Data, Weak Auction, Weak Bonds
The simplest way to view today's moderate bond market weakness is as a p...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 11:43 AM
For the first time this week, the economic calendar is not completely empty. Granted, the S&P Global PMI data is not the heaviest of hitters, but it ...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 4:48 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
Monday saw the lowest volume and lightest volatility of the year so far, but Tuesday turne...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 11:06 AM
As the market waits for next Wednesday's Fed announcement, there are a few other central bank updates to digest. This week's examples include the Eur...
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 4:58 PM
Modest Gains. No Particular Reason
The week got off to a slow start as far as the bond market was concerned....
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 12:17 PM
While bonds are starting the domestic session in slightly stronger territory and holding sideways so far, the broader trend is still toward higher yie...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 4:54 PM
Negative Trend Intact For Now
January has marked a modest but noticeable shift in bond market momentum and F...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 1:33 PM
January has marked a modest but noticeable shift in bond market momentum and Friday provides the latest evidence. While we're content to view most of...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 3:50 PM
Simple, Logical Cause and Effect
Things have been fairly boring for the bond market recently. We're in a ho...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 12:23 PM
It's a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. In a time when day to day movement is highly data dependent, we continue to see logical reac...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 4:53 PM
Bonds Reacting to Data. Is It Justified?
Retail Sales came out at 0.6 vs a median forecast of 0.4 and rates...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 12:32 PM
This week's only major economic report arrived this morning and it wasn't good for bonds. December's retail sales came out at 0.6% versus a median fo...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 3:35 PM
Waller Unintentionally Sends Yields Higher
The most hotly anticipated calendar event at the start of this ho...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 11:34 AM
While last week saw a generally narrow range, bonds managed to reverse two weeks of losses with 10yr yields moving down from 4.05 to 3.95. The gains ...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 4:50 PM
Good Week For Bonds. Next One Could be Interesting
The bond market traded about as well as anyone could have...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 10:33 AM
PPI (Producer Price Index) measures inflation at the wholesale level. It is not known or respected as being a reliable or significant market mover, b...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 4:33 PM
What's Up With Wild Reaction to CPI?
For the level of anticipation heading into it, today's CPI release was ...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 12:20 PM
The initial reaction to this morning's CPI data has been mixed with weakness initially and now some resilience. Treasuries are underperforming, partl...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:41 PM
At Least We Won't Be Waiting For CPI Anymore
The present week has been a bit boring, for lack of a gentler t...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 12:34 PM
Last Friday's data (jobs report and ISM) marked the last significant calendar event until this week's CPI, due out tomorrow at 8:30am ET. The interve...
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