Mon, Oct 18 2021, 10:05 AM
We typically don't talk too much about volume. It doesn't much matter for the purpose of tracking intraday reprice risk because the price is the pric...
Fri, Oct 15 2021, 7:33 PM
After a calm summer at historic lows, interest rate volatility has ramped up heading into the fall. What are rates worried about, and is this just the...
Fri, Oct 15 2021, 3:08 PM
Steady Selling All Day For Bonds
Bonds may have rallied on Mon-Thu, but Friday's theme has been quite differ...
Fri, Oct 15 2021, 8:57 AM
Thursday brought more gains for bonds, but not the kind that led us to expect a continuation of the rally. Rather, we argued the improvement was bett...
Thu, Oct 14 2021, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates fell today as a majority of lenders finally got caught up with the past few days of strength in the bond market. Lenders rely on bonds-...
Thu, Oct 14 2021, 4:25 PM
Can The Good Times Keep Rolling?
Referring to the past 3 days as "good times" is questionable. Perhaps "tim...
Thu, Oct 14 2021, 9:26 AM
Headlines like "Indecision Setting In" have ironically been seen at the start of some days that ended up being big movers, so apologies in advance if ...
Wed, Oct 13 2021, 3:51 PM
Closely following intraday moves for the bond market and mortgage rates means that seemingly insignificant time frames are actually important . For in...
Wed, Oct 13 2021, 3:45 PM
No Floors Harmed in Defense of The Ceiling
With yields vaulting higher last week, we've been looking for any...
Wed, Oct 13 2021, 9:45 AM
There has been more than a little bit of willingness on the part of the bond market to react to Fed's rate hike outlook. This began in earnest after ...
Tue, Oct 12 2021, 4:15 PM
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auction; Why MBS Are Lagging
Bonds began the day weaker, but improved steadily ...
Tue, Oct 12 2021, 3:41 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher on Tuesday after reaching the highest levels in months by the end of last week. The bond market was closed on Monday, ...
Tue, Oct 12 2021, 9:26 AM
Last week was unpleasant for the bond market. Yields tested and then broke above the technical ceiling at 1.56%, ultimately making it as high as 1.62...
Fri, Oct 8 2021, 6:34 PM
It goes by many names: The Employment Situation, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), or simply "the jobs report." No matter what you call it, the Labor Department...
Fri, Oct 8 2021, 4:01 PM
What's Up With Super Weak NFP Tanking The Bond Market?!
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much weaker than expect...
Fri, Oct 8 2021, 11:07 AM
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much weaker than expected (194k vs 500k f'cast), but that had almost no impact on the bond market in the first hour of tr...
Thu, Oct 7 2021, 3:29 PM
Highest Yields in Months. Could Jobs Report Make it Worse?
After a somewhat hopeful bounce in yesterday's t...
Thu, Oct 7 2021, 2:52 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again for some seriously confusing mixed signals in the world of mortgage rate journalism. The weekly Freddie Mac rat...
Thu, Oct 7 2021, 9:57 AM
It remains to be seen what impact tomorrow's jobs report might have given that it would take an atrociously weak number to derail the Fed's November t...
Wed, Oct 6 2021, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates managed to hold mostly steady on Wednesday despite several headwinds that threatened to push them higher. The first headwind falls into...
Wed, Oct 6 2021, 4:26 PM
Bonds Vote To Hold The Range Despite Stronger Data
10yr yields tested multi-month highs overnight (1.573), b...
Wed, Oct 6 2021, 9:36 AM
1.573% on a 10yr US Treasury Note?! While this still isn't the place a yield-seeking investor would park their money (inflation-adjusted returns at a...
Tue, Oct 5 2021, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates managed to begin the week by holding relatively steady, but that changed rather noticeably today. The bond market (which dictates day t...
Tue, Oct 5 2021, 4:35 PM
Rates Move Back Toward Recent Highs.
Bonds started the day only modestly higher after a fairly uneventful ov...
Tue, Oct 5 2021, 11:28 AM
Modest weakness on Monday meant the door was still open for bonds to challenge the lower boundary of the higher rate range seen last week. Today's tr...
Mon, Oct 4 2021, 4:16 PM
Could be Better. Could be Worse
Bonds ended last week on a strong note with yields challenging the lowest le...
Mon, Oct 4 2021, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates are unchanged to a hair lower compared to last Friday, depending on the lender. While that's welcome news given some of the big jumps i...
Mon, Oct 4 2021, 9:57 AM
Bonds managed to consolidate by the end of last week after yields surged to the highest levels since June. They're now faced with the choice to acqui...
Fri, Oct 1 2021, 4:43 PM
Modestly Strong, Uneventful Trading Day, Version 3
Last week conditioned us for Drama. Monday and Tuesday su...
Fri, Oct 1 2021, 11:32 AM
Today is off to a relatively tame start with yields trading in the narrowest range of the week so far. It also marks the 3rd straight day of modest r...
Thu, Sep 30 2021, 4:11 PM
Do Today's Gains Mean The Selling Spree is Over?
After some initial weakness brought 10yr yields back in lin...
Thu, Sep 30 2021, 9:26 AM
In case you missed it, things have been bad for bonds since last Thursday. A combination of factors conspired to push yields higher at the fastest pac...
Wed, Sep 29 2021, 4:20 PM
After spending the past four business days moving rapidly higher, mortgage rates finally caught a break today, but it was small. In fact, the average ...
Wed, Sep 29 2021, 4:17 PM
Token Rally a Small Concession For Recent Selling Spree
After 4 straight days of heavy selling pressure, bon...
Wed, Sep 29 2021, 10:39 AM
When bonds sell off as decisively as they have over the last 4 trading sessions, it's only a matter of time before buyers push back. The bigger the s...
Tue, Sep 28 2021, 4:50 PM
Here's What's NOT Moving The Bond Market
Another day, another surprisingly brisk selling spree in the bond m...
Tue, Sep 28 2021, 3:53 PM
The headline requires a bit of context. The target audience would be those of us who keep tabs on every little move in mortgage rates . If you identif...
Tue, Sep 28 2021, 10:02 AM
Momentum, macroeconomic considerations, and Fed policy continue to dominate the bond market since last Thursday as traders are swept up in the widespr...
Mon, Sep 27 2021, 4:29 PM
Losses Continue Despite Decent 5yr Treasury Auction
Today's 5yr Treasury auction was respectable with the in...
Mon, Sep 27 2021, 3:18 PM
Mortgage rates continued somewhat higher on Monday as bond markets lost ground over the weekend, adding to the heavier losses seen on Thursday and Fri...
Mon, Sep 27 2021, 9:50 AM
At the end of last week, we noted the looming Treasury auction cycle at the start of this week. Due to calendar constraints, it's earlier than normal...
Fri, Sep 24 2021, 3:37 PM
Range Breakout or New Trend Channel?
It was an interesting trading session in the bond market as Treasury yi...
Fri, Sep 24 2021, 10:47 AM
As early as 4 months ago, we'd been eyeing late September as do or die time for the low rate environment. By early September, we had a very clear pic...
Thu, Sep 23 2021, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates jumped substantially higher today as global markets reacted to yesterday's Fed announcement. But that's really just scratching the surf...
Thu, Sep 23 2021, 2:41 PM
What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off?
It's not nearly as surprising to see bond yields breaking technical cei...
Thu, Sep 23 2021, 10:03 AM
Wednesday's reaction to the Fed was essentially a non-reaction with yields ending the day very close to pre-Fed levels. Traders were more willing to ...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 5:31 PM
Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady today as the bond market reacted to a new policy announcement from the Fed. Perhaps "reacted" is the wrong wor...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 4:31 PM
Powell Effectively Confirms November Taper Barring NFP Catastrophe
Bonds reacted well to the initial Fed ann...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 2:01 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Sep 22 2021, 10:02 AM
We've been pining for this particular Fed day for weeks, at least. In fact, as early as June 1st, we pointed out that Fed speakers seemed to suggest ...
