Thu, Jan 28 2021, 8:31 AM
Bonds have rallied or held steady every day this week and the net effect is a visit to the 1.0% psychological floor for 10yr yields. Psychology aside...
Wed, Jan 27 2021, 4:59 PM
Very Tame Reaction to The Fed Despite Bond-Friendly Message
Bonds took a bit of a lead-off heading into toda...
Wed, Jan 27 2021, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jan 27 2021, 9:42 AM
With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%. Today's early gai...
Tue, Jan 26 2021, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. "Higher" is a relative term, in this case as the average loan seeker is u...
Tue, Jan 26 2021, 3:58 PM
MBS Outperform Treasuries Thank to Light Supply at Fed Buying Operation
Treasuries didn't gain any new groun...
Tue, Jan 26 2021, 9:44 AM
10yr yields broke below 1.075% yesterday--a level that had proven tough to break despite multiple attempts in the past 2 weeks. The move followed sev...
Mon, Jan 25 2021, 4:24 PM
What's a bond market rally and why should mortgage rates care? There are all kinds of bonds. US Treasuries would be the quintessential example, but th...
Mon, Jan 25 2021, 4:17 PM
Strong Move in Treasuries But MBS Underperform (Significantly)
While much of the world of finance and instit...
Mon, Jan 25 2021, 9:31 AM
Another week, another chance to see if bonds will continue to avoid confrontation with the boundaries of the recent range. 1.075% emerged as the floo...
Fri, Jan 22 2021, 4:24 PM
Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note
It's rare to see non-holidays Fridays in January be quite as underwhel...
Fri, Jan 22 2021, 4:23 PM
While it wasn't quite the biggest surprise of 2020, the strength of the housing market was one of the best. The just-released numbers for December kee...
Fri, Jan 22 2021, 9:25 AM
The nature of the pandemic has made for some very mechanical and orderly market movement. The best example of this in the bond market is the "trend...
Thu, Jan 21 2021, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates made more progress today, but only after some drama in the morning. The bond market started the day in weaker territory and many mortga...
Thu, Jan 21 2021, 3:32 PM
Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain
Yields were breaking higher as the domestic session be...
Thu, Jan 21 2021, 9:56 AM
The GA senate election shift is old news. It did the damage it was always likely to do, but bonds had a good show of support by the end of the follow...
Wed, Jan 20 2021, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates are off to a decent start this week with the average lender offering slightly better terms compared to last Friday. The progress actual...
Wed, Jan 20 2021, 9:50 AM
Does inauguration day matter for the bond market? Not as such, no. To be sure, the changing of the guard in D.C. is indeed a big deal for the bond...
Tue, Jan 19 2021, 3:51 PM
Uneventful Start This Week; Next Move Remains Debatable
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied ...
Tue, Jan 19 2021, 9:39 AM
Last week's bond trading served the role of establishing a ceiling for yields after their biggest spike in nearly a year (and the case could be made t...
Fri, Jan 15 2021, 4:42 PM
Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's Big Loss)
Relative to the spectrum of possibilities, endin...
Fri, Jan 15 2021, 9:27 AM
After the GA senate elections, the bond market immediately knew it needed to prepare for additional stimulus, even if moderate democratic voices might...
Thu, Jan 14 2021, 4:03 PM
Bonds Playing it Extra Safe Ahead of Biden's Stimulus Details
As we discussed yesterday, the strong mid-week...
Thu, Jan 14 2021, 9:48 AM
A few hours after markets closed yesterday, news began coming out regarding a Biden aide mentioning tonight's stimulus proposal would be in the $2 tri...
Wed, Jan 13 2021, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates had another solid day today--this time without any of the early drama seen yesterday. If you're just getting caught up, the bond market...
Wed, Jan 13 2021, 4:25 PM
Important Victory For Bonds, and Another Battle Ahead
Rates rallied today. Despite a positive reaction to a...
Wed, Jan 13 2021, 9:28 AM
With yesterday offering the first legitimate push back against the recent sell-off, today becomes one of three critically important days in establishi...
Tue, Jan 12 2021, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates were off to a very bad start this morning, but recovered a portion of what they lost by the end of the day. The specifics depend greatl...
Tue, Jan 12 2021, 4:16 PM
Much-Anticipated Correction Finally Arrives. Now What?
This morning's alert noted a scary scenario playing ...
Tue, Jan 12 2021, 10:04 AM
This morning's alert notes that the bond market is in the midst of one of its scarier scenarios. The ingredients are as follows: a long run in a reco...
Mon, Jan 11 2021, 5:41 PM
Mortgage rates are coming off a rough week-- the roughest , in fact, since June 2020 by some measures. That's the last time rates rose this quickly fo...
Mon, Jan 11 2021, 4:51 PM
Selling Spree Continues; MBS Underperforming
Earlier in the day, Treasuries looked to be selling off at a sl...
Mon, Jan 11 2021, 9:33 AM
0.96% was a well-established ceiling for 10yr yields in November and December. Despite numerous intraday breaks, yields only managed to close higher ...
Fri, Jan 8 2021, 3:44 PM
Bonds Determined To Sell Despite Weaker NFP
The bond market considered rallying in response to this morning'...
Fri, Jan 8 2021, 9:40 AM
While it's essentially a given the bigger stimulus is on the way with democrats controlling the senate (thus implying more Treasury issuance and a qui...
Thu, Jan 7 2021, 5:40 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today, but only a modest pace compared to yesterday (read more about yesterday's rate rout HERE ). Over the past two days,...
Thu, Jan 7 2021, 5:17 PM
Negative Momentum Remains Threatening Ahead of Jobs Report
We came into today hoping (but not necessarily ex...
Thu, Jan 7 2021, 9:38 AM
10yr yields were at the bottom edge of a months-long uptrend heading into the Georgia senate election. One result would have helped them break out to...
Wed, Jan 6 2021, 5:33 PM
Mortgage rates went to bed last night knowing they were at risk of a volatile day today. Georgia's senate race has been in focus for 2 months now beca...
Wed, Jan 6 2021, 4:49 PM
Crazy Day For Bonds. Is The Worst Over?
For 2 straight months, and especially over the past few weeks, we'v...
Wed, Jan 6 2021, 9:35 AM
For 2 straight months, and especially over the past few weeks, we've been calling out the Georgia senate election as the biggest ticket market mover f...
Tue, Jan 5 2021, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rates got off to a slow start yesterday. It was hard to object considering that left the average lender in line with record lows. But today w...
Tue, Jan 5 2021, 3:53 PM
Tomorrow Could Be a Very Big Day For Bonds
Bonds experienced a bit of weakness today, but 10yr yields bounce...
Tue, Jan 5 2021, 9:13 AM
Forget the economy. Forget covid. Forget Fed policy. Those things will all be back to move the bond market fairly soon, but first, there will be an...
Mon, Jan 4 2021, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates are off to a slow start in the new year, and that's a good thing. An absence of movement means the average lender continues offering ra...
Mon, Jan 4 2021, 4:17 PM
Markets Back in Action, Hurrying Up and Waiting
Bonds were back in action today although you'd hardly know i...
Mon, Jan 4 2021, 9:14 AM
The presidential election happened 2 months ago and since then, bonds really haven't moved other than in response to the Pfizer vaccine news on Nov 9t...
Thu, Dec 31 2020, 1:55 PM
Token Gains, Light Volume, Early Close
Bond market focus remains on the Georgia senate run-off election day ...
Thu, Dec 31 2020, 9:24 AM
With Europe and Japan out on holiday, bonds had the lightest overnight session of the year today, and domestic hours won't be much better apart from a...
Wed, Dec 30 2020, 2:43 PM
Bonds Sticking to Year-End Script
Bonds did a perfect job sticking to their year-end script today. It reads...
