Thu, Sep 27 2018, 9:09 AM
Yesterday's Fed announcement--specifically, Fed Chair Powell's press conference remarks--set bonds up for a potential bounce. This would come at a c...
Wed, Sep 26 2018, 4:59 PM
For a while, it looked like today would turn out to be one of those "dud" Fed days where actual market movement woefully undershoots potential market ...
Wed, Sep 26 2018, 2:08 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and th...
Wed, Sep 26 2018, 9:22 AM
In trying to put together a chart for this morning, I kept running into a wall. It had to do with the likely outcomes associated with different Fed f...
Tue, Sep 25 2018, 4:35 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory this morning, and they didn't need anyone to twist their arm in getting there. That was our first clue that...
Tue, Sep 25 2018, 9:11 AM
We talk sometimes about bonds taking a "lead-off" (like in that sport that a few of us still remember). Well, at least I talk about bonds taking a le...
Mon, Sep 24 2018, 4:36 PM
Have you heard? The Fed announcement is coming up on Wednesday. While you've undoubtedly heard about that more than a few times (unless this is yo...
Mon, Sep 24 2018, 9:11 AM
It would be a tad dramatic to say that rates are at a crossroads as we head into the end of September, unless there's any additional weakness this wee...
Fri, Sep 21 2018, 5:28 PM
By today, it became clear that bonds were fully locked into a sideways consolidation in a range defined by the highs seen on Wed/Thu and the lows mark...
Fri, Sep 21 2018, 10:15 AM
More often than not, when I use the word "believe" (or belief), it's in some vague and positive context. For instance, something like "bond buyers ar...
Thu, Sep 20 2018, 5:28 PM
After a series of demoralizing losses, it feels like some small victory for bonds to simply remain sideways today. That wasn't necessarily a given ...
Thu, Sep 20 2018, 8:18 AM
One of the themes we often revisit in times of trouble is the long-term bull market in bonds. This traces back to the 80's and provides a shockingly ...
Wed, Sep 19 2018, 4:36 PM
The titular question could be taken two ways . Is the selling pressure in bonds over? Is the "low rate environment" that's been in effect since mid-2...
Tue, Sep 18 2018, 4:17 PM
Remember early 2018 when the fear was compounded by this list of bad actors?
increased Treasury issuance to pay for the revenue shortfall in the...
Tue, Sep 18 2018, 9:14 AM
Not to be confused with the Red Sea, which is an actual place, the sea of red in the title is merely a reference to general bias toward weakness in bo...
Mon, Sep 17 2018, 5:06 PM
10yr yields briefly hit their highest levels since May 23rd this morning after one large trade started a snowball sell-off in Treasuries. Before th...
Mon, Sep 17 2018, 9:18 AM
September continues to be an unfriendly month for bonds, marked by an unfriendly trend that has carried yields almost exclusively higher. Some of t...
Fri, Sep 14 2018, 4:48 PM
August was nice. September is mean... at least if you're a bond.
Investors wanted you in August when it was still unclear whether or not Turkey...
Fri, Sep 14 2018, 8:32 AM
The question posed in the title is just a bit too big for us to cover in this humble "day ahead" post, but we can touch on a few key points. I just t...
Thu, Sep 13 2018, 4:53 PM
Bond markets were clearly interested in today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. It generated a larger single minute of volume than the minute follow...
Thu, Sep 13 2018, 9:12 AM
Right off the bat, with respect to the headline, I'll let you know that the answer is going to be "it depends." More on that in a moment. Bonds are...
Wed, Sep 12 2018, 4:06 PM
Today brought two events that should theoretically have helped bonds: a much weaker producer level inflation reading (2.4 vs 2.7 forecast for core...
Tue, Sep 11 2018, 4:43 PM
With no intent of drawing any parallels to Hurricane Florence, bond markets are battening down their hatches in advance of a perfect storm of data and...
Tue, Sep 11 2018, 9:18 AM
Overnight weakness in bonds sets us up to test some more serious boundaries today. As seen in the chart below (the same chart we've been watching f...
Mon, Sep 10 2018, 4:45 PM
Perhaps traders were tired? Perhaps they are still on high alert but just haven't gotten to the week's more meaningful events yet? Either way, the...
Mon, Sep 10 2018, 10:58 AM
Bonds/rates are in the process of defending their castle. Their way of life inside those walls could be thought of as the general maintenance of a lo...
Fri, Sep 7 2018, 4:27 PM
Today's bond market wrap is as simple as the headline. Average hourly earnings or AHE is occasionally responsible for some impressive moves in bond...
Fri, Sep 7 2018, 8:33 AM
This morning's first chart is actually Private Payrolls (as opposed to nonfarm payrolls). Reason being: NFP accounts for Census Bureau hiring which c...
Thu, Sep 6 2018, 4:39 PM
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session, but only slightly. The onset of domestic trading saw a stronger contingent of traders lined up to buy bon...
Thu, Sep 6 2018, 10:24 AM
I've been pretty bearish on bonds, in general, since the end of 2016. Against that backdrop, we can of course still look for tactical opportunities, ...
Wed, Sep 5 2018, 4:45 PM
The first two trading days of September introduce a somewhat serious threat to the calm, sideways range that dominated the past 3 weeks. Granted, the...
Wed, Sep 5 2018, 8:54 AM
Some economic reports matter when it comes to bond market movement potential, and many don't. The tricky thing about econ data is that reports that ...
Tue, Sep 4 2018, 4:42 PM
From a calendar standpoint, there were two notable features today. It was the first trading day in September--a month that often sees "something new"...
Tue, Sep 4 2018, 9:26 AM
For the bond market, September and/or October often see bigger moves than the preceding summertime months. There are notable exceptions, to be sure...
Fri, Aug 31 2018, 5:36 PM
August began with bond yields moving down from 3%, effectively keeping them in a sideways-to-slightly higher trend that arguably dates back to Janua...
Fri, Aug 31 2018, 10:28 AM
There are a few different ways to measure volatility in the bond market, but one of the simplest is via the average daily trading range. That particu...
Thu, Aug 30 2018, 4:22 PM
While we can't really avoid talking about "the range" recently (roughly 2.80 to 2.90 in terms of 10yr Treasury yields), we can at least talk about i...
Thu, Aug 30 2018, 8:52 AM
Remember the flat, boring range between 2.8 and 2.9? Or perhaps you prefer the slightly stricter version between 2.82 and 2.88? That's the range that...
Wed, Aug 29 2018, 6:08 PM
Today ended up being the most uneventful day of the week in terms of outright volatility. In other words, bonds didn't cover as much ground as they d...
Wed, Aug 29 2018, 8:45 AM
GDP is released 3 times over 3 months beginning on the month that follows the quarter in question. In other words, Q2 (April-June) is first reported ...
Tue, Aug 28 2018, 5:23 PM
Yesterday's bond market weakness introduced some risk of a technical shift back toward higher yields. Specifically, fast and slow stochastics (shor...
Tue, Aug 28 2018, 9:54 AM
Late June through late July saw 10yr yields trade in the 'same old range' with lows centered on 2.81 and highs on 2.89. That range was broken at the ...
Mon, Aug 27 2018, 5:41 PM
It was a straightforward trading day today. Overnight weakness came courtesy of stronger econ data in Germany and the resulting sell-off in Europea...
Mon, Aug 27 2018, 9:20 AM
Even though quite a few kids are going back to school today, there's still one week of Summer remaining for the bond market. Labor Day (this upcoming...
Fri, Aug 24 2018, 8:25 PM
If you knew what to look for, today's comments from Fed Chair Powell erred on the side of dovishness--that is, they were rate-friendly. They were als...
Fri, Aug 24 2018, 9:30 AM
Dear Kansas City Fed,
Thank you for hosting another year of the storied Jackson Hole Symposium. I'm not here to vent about the fact that you cou...
Thu, Aug 23 2018, 5:30 PM
Not since the eerie holiday-inspired silence of December 22nd 2017 have bonds put in as narrow of a trading day as they did today. 10yr yields didn't...
Thu, Aug 23 2018, 9:09 AM
Is today the day we break the "key technical level" at 2.82? Spoiler alert: you shouldn't care and it doesn't matter . I'm sorry if this is disillus...
Wed, Aug 22 2018, 4:07 PM
Today's gains are primarily a factor of the bond market's response to yesterday's Cohen headlines (plea deal regarding campaign finance violations)....
Wed, Aug 22 2018, 9:25 AM
News regarding Cohen's plea deal came out right as futures markets were closing yesterday. There were only 15-20 minutes for a reaction, and we wou...
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