Fri, Jan 18 2019, 9:44 AM
Ever since bottoming out in early 2019, 10yr Treasury yields faced a pretty clear line in the sand from a technical standpoint. 2.82% stuck out like ...
Thu, Jan 17 2019, 4:01 PM
The Wall St Journal ran a story this afternoon suggesting Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was pushing for a compromise deal to ease Tariffs on China in ord...
Thu, Jan 17 2019, 9:00 AM
Unless you've missed the past few days of commentary, you've heard me say something about the sideways uncertainty in markets as investors wait for a ...
Wed, Jan 16 2019, 5:01 PM
Today would have been Retail Sales day were it not for the government shutdown. This also prevented Business Inventories from reporting (not an ins...
Wed, Jan 16 2019, 8:47 AM
There will be no Retail Sales report this morning due to the government shutdown. This provides a perfect example of the issue the bond market is c...
Tue, Jan 15 2019, 6:31 PM
The S&P had been idling in place with prices between 2560 and 2600 for more than a week. During that week, we've discussed the risks associated with ...
Tue, Jan 15 2019, 8:39 AM
Neither side of the market (debt/bonds or stocks/equity) feels like it has enough information to move out of recent holding patterns. These sideways ...
Mon, Jan 14 2019, 4:29 PM
The overnight trading session was thinly-traded due to a holiday closure in Tokyo. Buyers outnumbered sellers until the domestic session. Promptly a...
Mon, Jan 14 2019, 8:39 AM
The government shutdown is now the longest ever, and there are a variety of interesting implications. The first is that multiple economic reports wil...
Fri, Jan 11 2019, 7:12 PM
Core CPI came in at 2.2% today. Back in 2016, this was cause for concern, but now bond markets trade like inflation isn't even a remote concern. What...
Fri, Jan 11 2019, 10:11 AM
Today's Consumer Price Index was one of the week's only " important " pieces of economic data. Or perhaps we should say it was one of the week's only...
Thu, Jan 10 2019, 5:28 PM
It's hard to fault the bond market for any trading over the past several days. The data and the movement in other markets have both suggested bond ma...
Thu, Jan 10 2019, 10:15 AM
The massive stock selling in Q3 2018 was clearly a big deal for bonds. As soon as the first wave of selling hit in stocks, bonds engaged what we refe...
Wed, Jan 9 2019, 6:55 PM
The notion of "hope" comes up quite a bit in my daily recap pieces--often because something bad is happening and we hope for it to end or because some...
Wed, Jan 9 2019, 9:26 AM
While there are no significant scheduled events in play this morning, the afternoon hours bring the 10yr Treasury auction and the " minutes " from t...
Tue, Jan 8 2019, 4:36 PM
For several weeks heading into the December Fed announcement, we discussed the impressive Nov/Dec bond market rally and the fact that the Fed would li...
Tue, Jan 8 2019, 9:28 AM
In some nearby parallel dimension, the letter "f" is option in today's title. We'll have to remember this little trick the next time bonds bounce so ...
Mon, Jan 7 2019, 5:32 PM
Bonds had a chance to make the big potential correction of early 2019 a 1-day affair. That would refer, of course, to last Friday's bond market wea...
Mon, Jan 7 2019, 9:52 AM
Will rates be able to remain in the comparatively great territory they entered last week, or does Friday's post-NFP sell-off mean we should be fear...
Fri, Jan 4 2019, 5:16 PM
Yesterday's recap headline spoke of bonds being on fire in a good way. Apparently word got out . Several party poopers arrived with buckets of wate...
Fri, Jan 4 2019, 9:19 AM
It's no secret that the bond market has been on a tear for more than a month. 10yr Treasury yields dropped more than 30 basis points (0.30%) in Decem...
Thu, Jan 3 2019, 5:08 PM
Bonds hit their best levels in nearly a year today, depending on the security in question. MBS are lagging behind Treasuries for reasons discussed in...
Thu, Jan 3 2019, 9:53 AM
Bonds started the new year off on a strong note yesterday, rallying to the best levels since ____. That blank would be filled in with a distinctly di...
Wed, Jan 2 2019, 5:55 PM
Monday's half-day brought 2018 to a strongly positive conclusion for bonds. Today's full session picked up where Monday left off and then some . ...
Wed, Jan 2 2019, 8:31 AM
Overnight market movement was kind to the US bond market, keeping some hope alive for a continuation of recent strength. Rather than an epic rebound ...
Mon, Dec 31 2018, 9:40 AM
This week promises a slow start due to the early close today and full closure tomorrow, but a strong finish due to Friday's NFP and the simple fact ...
Fri, Dec 28 2018, 4:55 PM
Bonds have had their good eye on stocks for months now. Almost any instance of exceptional bond market strength has come courtesy of exceptional ...
Fri, Dec 28 2018, 9:17 AM
As we discuss off and on over the years, the relationship between stocks and bonds is always complicated. At times, it seems as if bond yields and st...
Thu, Dec 27 2018, 5:16 PM
Is this the "big one" or isn't it?! That's what everyone with a vested interested in the stock market would like to know about the ongoing sell-off t...
Thu, Dec 27 2018, 9:10 AM
Last Wednesday was Fed day and it marked a technical breakout for bond yields. As far back as June 2018, 10yr yields had been bouncing on a floor of ...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 4:47 PM
Bonds had a rotten day, primarily because stocks had an amazing day (although the terrible 5yr Treasury auction didn't help). In turn, stocks prima...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 10:04 AM
The title of the Day Ahead commentary on Monday was "Don't Get Too Attached." In a nutshell, the suggestion was to not get too attached to any decisi...
Mon, Dec 24 2018, 9:31 AM
The week and a half surrounding Christmas and New Years Day tends to play by its own random rules. Sometimes it fits in with the prevailing trend (in...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 4:35 PM
After quite a bit of stock/bond correlation in the run up to the Fed announcement (and in the few hours that followed), the two sides of the market ...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 8:35 AM
One of the biggest surprises I encountered as I've learned about bond markets (and financial markets in general) over the years is just how big a ro...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 5:23 PM
Stocks and bonds haven't necessarily been joined at the hip for every moment of every day recently, but there's been enough correlation to make today'...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 9:03 AM
When bonds have been in a relatively strong trend for better or worse heading into the 3rd week of December, we tend to see a consolidation or a conti...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 4:58 PM
The Fed had a chance to soothe the stock market today by doing "something dovish" with respect to monetary policy or even forward guidance. "Someth...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen ...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 9:09 AM
What is the sound that doves make? I know they can cry, according to Prince, but "to cry or not to cry" would have been a weird headline title. I'm ...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 4:59 PM
We're typically talking about "the bond market in terms of 10yr Treasury yields," but in terms of PRICES , there was certainly some gravity in play c...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 9:58 AM
Fed day tomorrow! We'll finally get to see what's what with respect to recent speculation and a factual shift in tone from several Fed members (inclu...
Mon, Dec 17 2018, 5:46 PM
Just when you thought we might be done talking about "consolidations," there's that word again! I'd suggested on Friday that the modest bond market g...
Mon, Dec 17 2018, 9:37 AM
More than anything else over the past 3 weeks, a shift in tone among Fed speakers has been at the heart of the year's best bond market rally. Seeming...
Fri, Dec 14 2018, 5:44 PM
Bonds began the day in modestly stronger territory. While they spend a small amount of the day trading a small distance away from those opening lev...
Fri, Dec 14 2018, 9:24 AM
If you've truly come to an appreciation of the gravity of bonds' big picture headwinds over the past 2 years, then the past 5 weeks may feel like a st...
Thu, Dec 13 2018, 7:12 PM
Whether or not next week's Fed announcement proves to bring a winter storm for bond markets remains to be seen. That said, if anything is going to do...
Thu, Dec 13 2018, 9:26 AM
The first 3 days of this week have offered a clear correction/consolidation to the strong rally of the previous month. This had as much to do with ti...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 7:02 PM
Today's trading session was far less eventful than anything else seen in the past few weeks, both in terms of movement and volume. Although Treasury ...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 10:16 AM
As we begin the third day of moderate weakness in bond markets, it's safe to say that we're looking at the correction and/or consolidation that we exp...
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