Thu, Nov 29 2018, 5:01 PM
There have been two distinct phases to the bond market rally that followed yesterday's speech by Fed Chair Powell. The first was fairly logical in ...
Thu, Nov 29 2018, 9:42 AM
I use the baseball/lead-off analogy quite a bit to refer to a range breakout that occurs before the important event that is most likely to cause a bre...
Wed, Nov 28 2018, 4:31 PM
Today was interesting for bond markets in the sense that it certainly FELT like a nice day with solid gains. This has to do with the noticeable ral...
Wed, Nov 28 2018, 9:27 AM
This morning's chart looks complicated at first glance, but it's actually very simple. It doesn't even matter if you're familiar with candlestick cha...
Tue, Nov 27 2018, 5:54 PM
Volume may be picking up for the bond market following the typically quiet Thanksgiving trading week, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the move...
Tue, Nov 27 2018, 9:33 AM
Oil prices are always interesting to consider when it comes to bond markets. After all, oil is a major cost input for the economy. Even the "core" i...
Mon, Nov 26 2018, 4:39 PM
Most of today's bond market movement followed a single trade in the morning hours. Someone with deep pockets bought a lot of 2yr Treasury debt and ...
Mon, Nov 26 2018, 9:14 AM
Markets will be getting back into the swing of things (probably slowly) today after the Thanksgiving holiday. As we discussed excessively last week, ...
Fri, Nov 23 2018, 9:11 AM
I could go on and on about why it makes so very little sense for today to be a business day and for Thursday to be the official Thanksgiving holiday...
Wed, Nov 21 2018, 5:46 PM
Bond markets have a habit of getting progressively more quiet heading into Thanksgiving. It's not the kind of thing you should bank on from a strat...
Wed, Nov 21 2018, 9:22 AM
I used to be annoyed by the word "consolidation." It was on a short-list of market jargon words that were overused and possibly nebulous. But over t...
Tue, Nov 20 2018, 6:24 PM
We've had a pretty good run recently where bond yields have been willing to at least move in the same direction at the same time during sharper stock ...
Tue, Nov 20 2018, 9:36 AM
Despite a fairly perfect bounce yesterday, the trend-lines acting as floors in stocks and bonds have given way overnight, even if only in somewhat u...
Mon, Nov 19 2018, 6:04 PM
Builder Confidence doesn't typically move markets, but today it did. For the past several month's, the NAHB's Housing Market Index (generally consider...
Mon, Nov 19 2018, 9:12 AM
Happy Thanksgiving week. These can go a few different ways for bond markets with 2 main varieties standing out. Both varieties are the product of il...
Fri, Nov 16 2018, 7:24 PM
We haven't heard much out of new Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida since he accepted the position, but what we heard today was good. Well, at least the ...
Fri, Nov 16 2018, 9:24 AM
Because November 1st was a Thursday, we'll be treated to the earliest possible iteration of Thanksgiving. It's next week, by the way! Why are we talki...
Thu, Nov 15 2018, 6:00 PM
Remember the middle of 2016 when rates managed to make it all the way back in line with all-time lows despite having almost no justification in terms ...
Thu, Nov 15 2018, 9:30 AM
Ah Brexit... You thought you'd heard the last of it back in 2016? No such luck. Actually, it is a bit lucky to be hearing about it, at least as far...
Wed, Nov 14 2018, 4:58 PM
The narrative has grown (remained?) the same for bonds lately. If stocks are losing ground, then it's time to rally . If stocks are stabilizing or ...
Wed, Nov 14 2018, 8:28 AM
Bonds are actively trying to decide who they are and what they want to do with their lives. Will they be barometers of economic growth and inflation?...
Tue, Nov 13 2018, 4:51 PM
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) has been the most relevant economic report on the horizon since the balmy NFP report from 2 weeks back. Reason being...
Tue, Nov 13 2018, 9:23 AM
As of last Thursday, it didn't look like traders were much interested in hearing arguments in favor of bonds. Then, an unexpectedly healthy little ...
Fri, Nov 9 2018, 6:26 PM
Interesting day today... It began with a decent overnight rally, mostly led by European bond markets. The first big speed-bump came at 8:30am with ...
Fri, Nov 9 2018, 9:20 AM
Between the mid-term elections earlier this week and the simple tradeflow move following the Fed yesterday, bond markets have had their chance to make...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 5:02 PM
It's hard not to give the Fed a wide berth as the biggest potential market mover on any given Fed day. Today was a Fed day! We talked about the ou...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 2:13 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen an...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 9:11 AM
I'm going to talk about the potential for a friendly bounce in bonds today. I want to be clear right up front that I'm presenting this as one of two ...
Wed, Nov 7 2018, 5:05 PM
Those who expected the election to matter to bond markets got their way overnight. Those who expected elections to be inconsequential got their way...
Wed, Nov 7 2018, 9:05 AM
Whether you thought the election would or would not matter for the bond market, you were right! At times, it mattered quite a bit in the overnight ...
Tue, Nov 6 2018, 5:37 PM
While we can point to tonight's election results on the calendar, and imagine that they'll have an impact on financial markets, stocks and bonds sim...
Tue, Nov 6 2018, 8:52 AM
Justified or not, midterm elections are the market mover du jour. Midterm elections happen today, so it's fair to wonder if they will be a market mov...
Mon, Nov 5 2018, 5:19 PM
Today had the look and feel of a summertime Monday--the first we've seen since--well...summertime! Volume was much lighter than it has been in week...
Mon, Nov 5 2018, 8:58 AM
Bonds had a rough week last week, more than fully erasing the rally they enjoyed as stocks sold-off in the previous week. Today's first chart shows t...
Fri, Nov 2 2018, 7:29 PM
Today, and indeed the week in general was fairly straightforward as far as bond markets were concerned. Today brought a fairly well anticipated jobs ...
Fri, Nov 2 2018, 8:26 AM
This morning brings the often-important jobs report. Traditionally, the key component has been nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which is just a tally of new j...
Thu, Nov 1 2018, 4:54 PM
Today ended up being somewhat triumphant for bonds. It didn't begin that way, however. Yields were higher overnight and moved up just a bit more in ...
Thu, Nov 1 2018, 8:37 AM
Bonds have either trying to position themselves in a relatively defensive, pessimistic stance heading into upcoming key events, or their staging on ...
Wed, Oct 31 2018, 4:13 PM
Bonds ended the day in weaker territory with 10yr yields rising roughly 3bps and Fannie 4.0 MBS losing nearly a quarter of a point.
Much like yester...
Wed, Oct 31 2018, 9:18 AM
The title of this commentary is not a Halloween pun . I don't do Halloween puns anymore. No, there is some legitimate cause for concern--even a bit...
Tue, Oct 30 2018, 4:04 PM
If there's a theme in the bond market over the past 2 days, it's that we've broken away from the previously fairly rigid correlation with stocks. Tha...
Tue, Oct 30 2018, 8:45 AM
With bonds being flat to slightly weaker yesterday and now noticeably weaker overnight, we may be looking at our first real resistance bounce (aka "fl...
Mon, Oct 29 2018, 5:00 PM
The bond market has seen one too many "stay thirsty" memes. For example, "I don't always rally for more than a few days in a rising rate environmen...
Mon, Oct 29 2018, 10:04 AM
Core global bond markets--led by German Bunds and US Treasuries--have been trending lower fairly reliably. For European bonds, that rally has occupie...
Fri, Oct 26 2018, 5:42 PM
Interest rates that have generally been rising for a any period of time can catch a break for many reasons. Sometimes it's Italian political drama ...
Fri, Oct 26 2018, 8:31 AM
Everything continues to be fairly unidimensional for bonds this week with the dimension in question being that of the equities market. In terms of re...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 5:32 PM
The best way to look at today is as a more sober attempt to hold the lowest yields in more than 3 weeks . The only day that's ended any better for...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 9:07 AM
With slightly weaker levels overnight, the rest of the day becomes a fight to maintain the gains seen so far this week. The easiest and most basic ob...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 4:56 PM
Yesterday was ' neat ' for a while--at least in the morning hours when massive stock losses helped bonds achieve their best levels in weeks. Then sto...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 8:49 AM
For nearly a week, 10yr Treasury yields had been treating 3.18% as a floor (3.178% was the lowest close over the past 4 days. That arguably changed ...
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