Wed, Jan 9 2019, 9:26 AM
While there are no significant scheduled events in play this morning, the afternoon hours bring the 10yr Treasury auction and the " minutes " from t...
Tue, Jan 8 2019, 4:36 PM
For several weeks heading into the December Fed announcement, we discussed the impressive Nov/Dec bond market rally and the fact that the Fed would li...
Tue, Jan 8 2019, 9:28 AM
In some nearby parallel dimension, the letter "f" is option in today's title. We'll have to remember this little trick the next time bonds bounce so ...
Mon, Jan 7 2019, 5:32 PM
Bonds had a chance to make the big potential correction of early 2019 a 1-day affair. That would refer, of course, to last Friday's bond market wea...
Mon, Jan 7 2019, 9:52 AM
Will rates be able to remain in the comparatively great territory they entered last week, or does Friday's post-NFP sell-off mean we should be fear...
Fri, Jan 4 2019, 5:16 PM
Yesterday's recap headline spoke of bonds being on fire in a good way. Apparently word got out . Several party poopers arrived with buckets of wate...
Fri, Jan 4 2019, 9:19 AM
It's no secret that the bond market has been on a tear for more than a month. 10yr Treasury yields dropped more than 30 basis points (0.30%) in Decem...
Thu, Jan 3 2019, 5:08 PM
Bonds hit their best levels in nearly a year today, depending on the security in question. MBS are lagging behind Treasuries for reasons discussed in...
Thu, Jan 3 2019, 9:53 AM
Bonds started the new year off on a strong note yesterday, rallying to the best levels since ____. That blank would be filled in with a distinctly di...
Wed, Jan 2 2019, 5:55 PM
Monday's half-day brought 2018 to a strongly positive conclusion for bonds. Today's full session picked up where Monday left off and then some . ...
Wed, Jan 2 2019, 8:31 AM
Overnight market movement was kind to the US bond market, keeping some hope alive for a continuation of recent strength. Rather than an epic rebound ...
Mon, Dec 31 2018, 9:40 AM
This week promises a slow start due to the early close today and full closure tomorrow, but a strong finish due to Friday's NFP and the simple fact ...
Fri, Dec 28 2018, 4:55 PM
Bonds have had their good eye on stocks for months now. Almost any instance of exceptional bond market strength has come courtesy of exceptional ...
Fri, Dec 28 2018, 9:17 AM
As we discuss off and on over the years, the relationship between stocks and bonds is always complicated. At times, it seems as if bond yields and st...
Thu, Dec 27 2018, 5:16 PM
Is this the "big one" or isn't it?! That's what everyone with a vested interested in the stock market would like to know about the ongoing sell-off t...
Thu, Dec 27 2018, 9:10 AM
Last Wednesday was Fed day and it marked a technical breakout for bond yields. As far back as June 2018, 10yr yields had been bouncing on a floor of ...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 4:47 PM
Bonds had a rotten day, primarily because stocks had an amazing day (although the terrible 5yr Treasury auction didn't help). In turn, stocks prima...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 10:04 AM
The title of the Day Ahead commentary on Monday was "Don't Get Too Attached." In a nutshell, the suggestion was to not get too attached to any decisi...
Mon, Dec 24 2018, 9:31 AM
The week and a half surrounding Christmas and New Years Day tends to play by its own random rules. Sometimes it fits in with the prevailing trend (in...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 4:35 PM
After quite a bit of stock/bond correlation in the run up to the Fed announcement (and in the few hours that followed), the two sides of the market ...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 8:35 AM
One of the biggest surprises I encountered as I've learned about bond markets (and financial markets in general) over the years is just how big a ro...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 5:23 PM
Stocks and bonds haven't necessarily been joined at the hip for every moment of every day recently, but there's been enough correlation to make today'...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 9:03 AM
When bonds have been in a relatively strong trend for better or worse heading into the 3rd week of December, we tend to see a consolidation or a conti...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 4:58 PM
The Fed had a chance to soothe the stock market today by doing "something dovish" with respect to monetary policy or even forward guidance. "Someth...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen ...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 9:09 AM
What is the sound that doves make? I know they can cry, according to Prince, but "to cry or not to cry" would have been a weird headline title. I'm ...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 4:59 PM
We're typically talking about "the bond market in terms of 10yr Treasury yields," but in terms of PRICES , there was certainly some gravity in play c...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 9:58 AM
Fed day tomorrow! We'll finally get to see what's what with respect to recent speculation and a factual shift in tone from several Fed members (inclu...
Mon, Dec 17 2018, 5:46 PM
Just when you thought we might be done talking about "consolidations," there's that word again! I'd suggested on Friday that the modest bond market g...
Mon, Dec 17 2018, 9:37 AM
More than anything else over the past 3 weeks, a shift in tone among Fed speakers has been at the heart of the year's best bond market rally. Seeming...
Fri, Dec 14 2018, 5:44 PM
Bonds began the day in modestly stronger territory. While they spend a small amount of the day trading a small distance away from those opening lev...
Fri, Dec 14 2018, 9:24 AM
If you've truly come to an appreciation of the gravity of bonds' big picture headwinds over the past 2 years, then the past 5 weeks may feel like a st...
Thu, Dec 13 2018, 7:12 PM
Whether or not next week's Fed announcement proves to bring a winter storm for bond markets remains to be seen. That said, if anything is going to do...
Thu, Dec 13 2018, 9:26 AM
The first 3 days of this week have offered a clear correction/consolidation to the strong rally of the previous month. This had as much to do with ti...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 7:02 PM
Today's trading session was far less eventful than anything else seen in the past few weeks, both in terms of movement and volume. Although Treasury ...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 10:16 AM
As we begin the third day of moderate weakness in bond markets, it's safe to say that we're looking at the correction and/or consolidation that we exp...
Tue, Dec 11 2018, 5:37 PM
Government shutdowns make good news. When risks of a shutdown flare up (especially with today's sort of political theater) it tends to dominate the...
Tue, Dec 11 2018, 9:19 AM
Consolidation... That's that word we use to refer to sideways and frequently narrower trading ranges that follow a period of more directional movement...
Mon, Dec 10 2018, 5:44 PM
Bonds struggled to find inspiration for the first few hours of the domestic session, but it was soon in ample supply thanks to Brexit-related headline...
Mon, Dec 10 2018, 8:01 AM
We've had an impressive winning streak recently and have acquired gains worthy of a watchful, protective eye. Will this be a durable rally or a fleet...
Fri, Dec 7 2018, 4:23 PM
This morning's trading--both before and after NFP came out--basically acted as additional time for debate . Both MBS and Treasuries bounced quickly,...
Fri, Dec 7 2018, 8:33 AM
Powell's speech last week at the Economic Club of New York marked the beginning of an official shift. Until then, while the Fed had its dovish dissen...
Thu, Dec 6 2018, 5:29 PM
Without discussing what tomorrow may bring for bond markets, we can safely say that today was big. Both in terms volumes and outright trading level...
Thu, Dec 6 2018, 9:09 AM
Good times are rolling in the bond market, even if they're rolling much more for Treasuries as opposed to MBS. Nonetheless, MBS will continue to bene...
Tue, Dec 4 2018, 5:53 PM
Bonds rallied in a big way today with intraday lows of 2.885% in 10yr yields. There was also a prominent sell-off in stocks, begging the conclusion...
Tue, Dec 4 2018, 9:13 AM
The day begins with the December rally gathering steam, or at least maintaining the surprisingly strong levels achieved yesterday afternoon. Yields c...
Mon, Dec 3 2018, 5:21 PM
I don't think candlestick patterns can predict the future, but a few of them offer quick and easy ways to convey a certain theme in the market. One o...
Mon, Dec 3 2018, 8:57 AM
Much like the person on a journey of self-improvement might hear a trite pep talk about today being the first day of the rest of their life, bond mark...
Fri, Nov 30 2018, 4:06 PM
In and of itself, today's trading session wasn't anything special. There wasn't much by way of economic data (just Chicago PMI, which fell on deaf ...
Fri, Nov 30 2018, 10:05 AM
Relative to the last 2 years of pain for bond markets, a sense of hope has emerged, seemingly overnight. That has to do with the fact that bonds (as ...
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