Why Are We Losing Ground Today and What's The Implication?
Due to its timing and size, today's bond market weakness may suggest the short-term rally is reversing course. One single day of selling is usually never enough to confirm such things and today is no exception. Nonetheless, it's the riskiest day we've encountered since yields topped out on January 12th. Economic data actually seemed to play a part in this drama, but there are big picture technical considerations as well. Today's huddle video discusses these motivations (and their implications) in greater detail.
Fed UMBS Schedule 10am, 1130am, 1pm
Q4 GDP 4.0 vs 4.0 f'cast
Jobless Claims 847k vs 875k f'cast, 914k prev
New Home Sales 842k vs 865k f'cast, 829k prev
Bonds were slightly stronger at the open, but are losing ground after the 8:30am econ data (GDP hit forecasts at 4.0% and Jobless Claims were better than forecast). Yields moved into negative territory a few minutes ago with the 10yr now up to 1.026%. Stocks are tracing the move. There's a risk that we see a broad "risk-on" bounce with stocks and bond yields moving moderately to significantly higher today. Stay frosty.
Now seeing the movement in Treasuries we were hoping NOT to see (new highs, up more than 4bps at 1.057) and the corresponding movement we feared in MBS (2.0 coupons down more than an eighth from highs and 1.5 coupons down almost a quarter of a point). No major market movers behind the most recent bout of weakness although traders could be building in a concession for the upcoming Treasury auction.
7yr Treasury auction was decent but bonds didn't care. 30 minutes later and we're breaking into new high yields for the day. MBS are following with prices down to new lows. This is a broad momentum move and not motivated by anything new and specific. Bonds probably wanted to bounce yesterday, but were forced to rally by the big drop in stocks. Now that stocks are rebounding, we're seeing the true colors of the range-bound bounce.
Selling pressure may be leveling off here as Treasuries haven't made a new high since the last update (1:35pm). Not much traction in the other direction. MBS are still trading at their worst levels of the day, but that's not a huge deal considering they didn't lose nearly as much ground as Treasuries earlier in the day.