MBS Live Recap: Locking vs Floating After Underwhelming "Rally Day."

The recent losing streak in the bond market made it increasingly likely that we'd see a win this week.  Ideally, it would have aligned with a strong response to Wednesday's 10yr auction, but instead, we got a halfhearted version on Tuesday.  While this is technically a tactical cue to float for the most risk tolerant clients, that's an aggressive strategy until we see how the market reacts to the 10yr auction.  Either way, the bigger picture rising rate trend remains easily intact.

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
08:31 AM

Bonds improved overnight as stocks remained in check and European bonds joined in the short-covering trade.  A Spanish bond auction (of all the crazy things) was the big market mover of the night.  Yields have been rising very slowly heading into domestic hours (more noticeable in EU bonds than Treasuries).  MBS are up 3 ticks (.09).

01:03 PM

Like yesterday, bonds rallied into the European close (more modestly today) and have been slipping since then.  The 3yr Treasury auction was uneventful.  10yr yields are down 2.6bps at 1.15%, right in line with AM levels.  2.0 UMBS are up 3 ticks (.09) at 103-04 (103.125),

03:12 PM

Increasingly giving back the gains in the PM hours.  10yr yields are still lower on the day, but now only by about 1bp (1.162%).  MBS are 2 ticks (.06) off their mid day highs with 2.0 coupons still up 2 ticks on the day.

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