Tue, Jan 28 2020, 8:44 AM
Bonds finally broke out of one of their prevailing ranges yesterday as Wuhan virus fears reached a new level. Some may roll their eyes at this sort o...
Mon, Jan 27 2020, 5:05 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower to start the week as Wuhan Virus continues to be diagnosed at an exponential rate. As we discussed last week, interest ...
Mon, Jan 27 2020, 9:45 AM
Last week was really the first truly interesting week of 2020 (and arguably of the past several months) as far as the prevailing range in the bond mar...
Fri, Jan 24 2020, 6:06 PM
We had to wait all the way until January 24th of 2020, but bonds finally offered their first real shred of willingness to challenge the established ra...
Fri, Jan 24 2020, 5:25 PM
Mortgage rates moved meaningfully lower over the past 2 days as panic over the coronavirus outbreak continues affecting financial markets. If this epi...
Fri, Jan 24 2020, 10:49 AM
As the week comes to a close, we find bonds continuing to trickle toward the lower end of the range that has prevailed for nearly 3 months. In terms ...
Thu, Jan 23 2020, 9:13 AM
The bond market--widely expected to have been launching yields up and over 2% in 2020--is instead in the process of testing it's best levels since ear...
Wed, Jan 22 2020, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates remained in line with 3-month lows today for the average lender. Several lenders offered marginally better terms compared to yesterday,...
Wed, Jan 22 2020, 9:51 AM
You know things are bad when I resort to invoking Kierkegaard in bond market commentary, but that's what it's come to. Our quest to observe something...
Tue, Jan 21 2020, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates dropped to begin the holiday-shortened week as markets expressed a bit of panic over the coronavirus outbreak in China. This is similar...
Tue, Jan 21 2020, 10:22 AM
In addition to being a 4-day trading week due to yesterday's holiday, there's also a general lack of big-ticket economic data on tap. In fact, there ...
Fri, Jan 17 2020, 7:16 PM
We've seen a whole lot more movement in the bond market for a whole lot less motivation than we had this week. Back to back econ data shockers (Phill...
Fri, Jan 17 2020, 6:48 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher over the past two days as strong economic data and corporate earnings coaxed investors into riskier assets like s...
Fri, Jan 17 2020, 10:47 AM
Sometimes the market moves in clear response to a headline event or the scheduled release of an economic report. We have clear examples of this recen...
Thu, Jan 16 2020, 9:07 AM
Bonds continue to be well-contained by the prevailing consolidation range--a series of higher lows and static highs that's been in place in its curren...
Wed, Jan 15 2020, 3:42 PM
Today marked a rare mid-week "total dud" in terms of bond market momentum developments. This was made all the more striking by the fact that bonds ce...
Wed, Jan 15 2020, 2:37 PM
Mortgage rates improved modestly today, adding to yesterday's slightly less compelling improvement. Taken together, they keep an air of calm and stead...
Wed, Jan 15 2020, 9:17 AM
Bonds have been able to put in a few days with moderate movement both higher and lower in yield, but have generally been holding inside a range that i...
Tue, Jan 14 2020, 9:51 AM
More often than not during the past few months, a quick glance at the MBS Live dashboard reveals that MBS are making better gains than Treasuries. Is...
Mon, Jan 13 2020, 5:32 PM
Mortgage rates didn't do much today, and that's good enough news considering the average lender is closer to the lower end of the rate range since ear...
Mon, Jan 13 2020, 10:10 AM
Rather than serve to accelerate or crush the negative bond market momentum building at the end of 2019, 2020 has only compounded the broader sideways ...
Fri, Jan 10 2020, 6:43 PM
Mortgage rates had been moving higher over the past few days. The average lender was at the highest levels of the month as of yesterday morning, but t...
Fri, Jan 10 2020, 10:02 AM
With NFP coming out just slightly weaker than expected and the bond market not undergoing much of a reaction in either direction, the rest of the day ...
Thu, Jan 9 2020, 5:26 PM
Do you like it when MBS outperform? How about when they underperform?
Are you a fan of bond market gains? Or do you prefer losses?
Would you l...
Thu, Jan 9 2020, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher more definitively today after as lenders had a chance to match their offerings to underlying bond markets. Markets themsel...
Thu, Jan 9 2020, 9:09 AM
The bond market and many other markets are still in the process of retracing the steps they took to price-in the risk of a new war in the Middle East....
Wed, Jan 8 2020, 4:46 PM
Top and bottom line: war is good for bonds/rates. The risk of war had increased after last week's US attack on the Iranian general and flared furthe...
Wed, Jan 8 2020, 3:06 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today after spending several recent days in line with the lowest levels in more than a month. Underlying bond markets have...
Wed, Jan 8 2020, 9:01 AM
Last night was intense to say the least. Bonds surged to the best levels in more than a month, and were close to the best levels in nearly 3 months a...
Tue, Jan 7 2020, 4:21 PM
Treasuries were modestly weaker today, while MBS outperformed by holding mostly steady. That keeps the bond market well within its recent range as we...
Tue, Jan 7 2020, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, keeping them in line with their lowest levels in more than a month. That's the good news. There's really not any bad...
Tue, Jan 7 2020, 9:55 AM
Heading into the end of 2019, the easiest way to look at the bond market was through the lense of "consolidation." In other words, the trading range ...
Mon, Jan 6 2020, 5:05 PM
The Treasury market was on the back foot today as investors lightened holdings ahead of a busy week of bond market supply. A renewed risk-tolerance w...
Mon, Jan 6 2020, 3:46 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today, bringing them deeper into the lowest levels in more than a month. There were no specific motivations for the i...
Mon, Jan 6 2020, 9:43 AM
For the bond market, almost the entirety of the 2nd half of 2019 was dominated by a consolidation pattern (a narrowing trend where periodic highs and ...
Fri, Jan 3 2020, 3:04 PM
Mortgage rates have been on a solid run over the past few weeks--a time that tends to see the chips fall where they may in terms of market movement (e...
Fri, Jan 3 2020, 9:35 AM
We knew that volume and liquidity would be ramping back up after the holiday break (which is technically still going through this weekend for many) an...
Thu, Jan 2 2020, 9:09 AM
Bonds will be fully open today and tomorrow, but we're not quite back to what would be considered "normal trading" yet. There is no significant data ...
Tue, Dec 31 2019, 9:07 AM
Bonds close early today for New Year's Eve and are fully closed tomorrow for New Year's Day. There is no significant data on tap today although trade-...
Mon, Dec 30 2019, 4:33 PM
Bond market holiday inertia would have been happy to continue were it not for a relative smattering of drama in European bond markets overnight. In f...
Mon, Dec 30 2019, 10:14 AM
For the second straight week, the bond market will lose a day and a half of trading to holiday market closures. That largely implies the same effects ...
Fri, Dec 27 2019, 9:08 AM
Bonds are technically fully open today, but holiday trading themes remain. That means volume and liquidity will remain light, and trading momentum ca...
Thu, Dec 26 2019, 8:35 AM
Bond markets are fully open again today after 2 and a half days of for Christmas. While things could be a bit business than earlier this week, volume ...
Tue, Dec 24 2019, 1:12 PM
Bond trading was every bit as uneventful as it should have been to start the day. Volumes were as light as they get and weakness was modest at worst....
Tue, Dec 24 2019, 8:24 AM
Bond markets will be closed for Christmas tomorrow and only open for a half day today. Volume and liquidity will be mere shadows of their normal selve...
Mon, Dec 23 2019, 8:49 AM
Bond markets will be closed for Christmas on Wednesday and only open for a half day on Tuesday. Even on the remaining days of the week, volume and li...
Fri, Dec 20 2019, 9:41 AM
For all practical purposes, today is the last trading day of the year. In fact, based on volumes so far, today may actually be the first day of the w...
Thu, Dec 19 2019, 4:46 PM
First thing's first: putting too much time/thought into the writing or reading of bond market analysis this time of year isn't really necessary. If th...
Thu, Dec 19 2019, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates were somewhat higher again today--the 4th day in a row that we've been forced to observe such mildly unpleasant things. Technically, th...
Thu, Dec 19 2019, 8:39 AM
My 12-year old emails me from the next room when he's doing homework sometimes. It only happens a few times a year and only when it's really serious....
