Wed, May 20 2020, 9:50 AM
I've been mentioning MBS outperformance and underperformance quite a bit recently, but what do these terms really mean and why do we care?
First off...
Tue, May 19 2020, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed this morning, depending on the lender. The more responsive lenders had already bumped rates higher yesterday in response to ...
Tue, May 19 2020, 9:17 AM
Yesterday was pretty rough for bond markets as 10yr yields rose the better part of 10bps in fairly short order. It was the worst day of selling in ...
Mon, May 18 2020, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates hit all-time lows on Friday, based on the average rate for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed loan scenario. At that time, I raised the...
Mon, May 18 2020, 9:05 AM
Bond markets will close early this Friday and will remain fully closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. 3.5-day weekends can often see a shi...
Fri, May 15 2020, 4:34 PM
As of yesterday, we knew mortgage rates were already in line with their lowest levels ever . It wouldn't have taken much to set the record today and i...
Fri, May 15 2020, 9:17 AM
As recently as April 21st, the fate of the mortgage market was still highly uncertain and that uncertainty was readily apparent in the ridiculously w...
Thu, May 14 2020, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates move lower again today. Combined with yesterday's drop, the improvement has been significant for top tier rate quotes in the lower rang...
Thu, May 14 2020, 8:58 AM
The recent trading range has been reinforced after a strong show of support in this week's Treasury auctions. Treasuries were under more pressure hea...
Wed, May 13 2020, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates improved today, on average, but things can vary quite a bit depending on the lender. Several lenders are back in line with their lowest...
Wed, May 13 2020, 9:00 AM
In ancient financial market times (let's say any time before 2009), a massive economic shock resulted in a pervasive move lower in both stock prices a...
Tue, May 12 2020, 8:40 AM
2.5 UMBS coupons last traded at 103.5 (103-16) yesterday. This morning, they are down to 103.31 (103-11), which is roughly a 20bp drop. But the char...
Mon, May 11 2020, 7:12 PM
Mortgage rates began the day slightly lower compared to last Friday, but that didn't last long . Underlying bond markets were under pressure from the ...
Mon, May 11 2020, 8:51 AM
Bonds lost ground last week, overall, with 10yr yields rising the better part of 10bps. MBS lost ground as well, but not UMBS 2.0 coupons. These are...
Fri, May 8 2020, 6:59 PM
Mortgage rates ended the week on a low note (in a good way), falling in line with their best recent levels. This put some lenders in line with April 3...
Fri, May 8 2020, 8:32 AM
The Employment Situation (the big jobs report out today) is the single most important piece of economic data on any given month--at least it normally ...
Thu, May 7 2020, 8:55 AM
Despite an improvement in COVID numbers, relative optimism in stocks, an ongoing glut of corporate bond issuance, and freshly reinforced realizations ...
Wed, May 6 2020, 5:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher this week, but not enough to worry about too terribly much. Most lenders are still in the mid-to-low 3% range and...
Wed, May 6 2020, 10:44 AM
When someone asks a salty old bond market person why rates are doing what they'd doing, they might get a seemingly dismissive reply: "supply and deman...
Tue, May 5 2020, 9:38 AM
Despite being in a narrow range in the bigger picture, 10yr Treasury yields have generally been moving moderately higher since April 21st. MBS have m...
Mon, May 4 2020, 5:04 PM
Mortgage rates moved off their recent lows to start the new week, but only slightly. That keeps the average lender very close to the lowest rates in r...
Mon, May 4 2020, 10:28 AM
The Federal Reserve's capacity and willingness to engage in aggressive easing measures is often described as a "bazooka." This likens it to an imprec...
Fri, May 1 2020, 10:46 AM
In the day ahead, bonds will digest manufacturing PMI data, both from IHS-Markit and ISM. While these PMIs are typically big market movers--potential...
Thu, Apr 30 2020, 5:42 PM
Mortgage rates moved down again today, bringing the average lender to their best levels since the 2nd week of March. Some lenders are quoting their lo...
Thu, Apr 30 2020, 8:47 AM
January, February, and especially March were wild months for bond market volatility. Coronavirus was increasingly responsible for that volatility dur...
Wed, Apr 29 2020, 10:42 AM
This morning, GDP came out at -4.8%, the lowest reading since Q1, 2009. The Fed announcement and press conference will be out this afternoon. But th...
Tue, Apr 28 2020, 6:24 PM
Mortgage rates moved down nicely last week and have either maintained or improved upon those levels this week. The catch is that the good times aren't...
Tue, Apr 28 2020, 9:24 AM
Trillions of dollars of stimulus on the Fiscal side and many additional trillions of liquidity on the monetary side of the equation are helping stocks...
Mon, Apr 27 2020, 9:16 AM
After weeks and weeks spent discussing the impacts on growth surrounding coronavirus, we're only now getting to the very first release of GDP for Q1. ...
Fri, Apr 24 2020, 11:34 AM
Given the size and scope of the unemployment/forbearance issue, mortgage investors have been rightfully concerned about the timeliness of payments, an...
Thu, Apr 23 2020, 6:23 PM
Let's get caveats out of the way upfront. No conversation about mortgage rates would be complete without a reminder that some lenders are very far rem...
Thu, Apr 23 2020, 10:03 AM
I'm making an executive decision. It's time to simplify the discussion even more than we already have when it comes to what's freaking the mortgage...
Wed, Apr 22 2020, 1:24 PM
The initial House draft of the CARES Act included a provision that Fed and Treasury would "extend credit to mortgage servicers that have liquidity nee...
Wed, Apr 22 2020, 9:36 AM
While there may be a good amount of drama and suspense when it comes to watching coronavirus take its toll on the economy, there's no mystery. This ...
Tue, Apr 21 2020, 9:22 AM
Given that yields are in an extremely low range with no past precedent, it's easy to glance at the chart, shrug one's shoulders, and conclude "oh well...
Mon, Apr 20 2020, 5:56 PM
While the industry has come to terms with recent challenges in terms of day-to-day volatility, mortgage rates remain higher than they otherwise would ...
Mon, Apr 20 2020, 9:53 AM
This week is relatively limited in terms of economic data. We will get our first look at big home sales reports for March (both "New" and "Existing")...
Fri, Apr 17 2020, 6:22 PM
Mortgage rates continue showing a willingness to play by at least a few of the same rules that typically apply. Most of the rules went out the window ...
Fri, Apr 17 2020, 3:21 PM
There was a sharp sell-off in the bond market on Friday afternoon--at least relative to the day's relatively calm trading patterns--as the Fed once ag...
Fri, Apr 17 2020, 9:46 AM
If I accidentally jinxed it, the damage was already done in yesterday's MBS Huddle video, so we might as well talk about it. "Talk about what," you m...
Thu, Apr 16 2020, 10:25 AM
Coronavirus has made for some of the biggest market movement and volatility in the history of financial markets. It's also resulted in a wide range o...
Wed, Apr 15 2020, 5:16 PM
Mortgage rates had a reasonably calm and logical day--not something we've been able to say very often recently. It was calm in the sense that today's ...
Wed, Apr 15 2020, 8:29 AM
There's no question that financial markets have done a great deal to price-in the anticipated economic impact of coronavirus, but have they done enoug...
Tue, Apr 14 2020, 4:54 PM
Mortgage rates were moderately to significantly higher today depending on the lender, the program, and on one's own definition of words like "moderate...
Tue, Apr 14 2020, 11:09 AM
There's a bit of 20/20 hindsight in the observation that MBS strength could/should only last for so long before experiencing a bit of a correction. I...
Mon, Apr 13 2020, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates have been volatile and unpredictable to say the least. Some of this has to do with overall market volatility surrounding the market's r...
Mon, Apr 13 2020, 10:10 AM
Markets have already shown how well they understand the uniquely massive economic toll taken by coronavirus. That's why we're able to see things like...
Fri, Apr 10 2020, 2:18 PM
Just as the mortgage industry was coming to terms with unprecedented market volatility due to coronavirus, the details of the CARES Act (the coronavir...
Thu, Apr 9 2020, 3:37 PM
The Fed announced new lending programs totaling $2.3 trillion this morning. The Fed had recently alluded to "additional tools" at its disposal to sup...
Wed, Apr 8 2020, 12:08 PM
Any discussion about the challenges faced by a particular industry or even by a particular household requires the same acknowledgement right up front...
