Tue, Jul 21 2020, 4:03 PM
"Flat" is an Understatement
Recent trading activity lies in stark contrast to the drama seen earlier in 2020...
Tue, Jul 21 2020, 9:00 AM
Recent trading activity lies in stark contrast to the drama seen earlier in 2020. Even at the beginning of June, bonds still had an interesting (and ...
Mon, Jul 20 2020, 2:57 PM
How Low Can Rates Eventually Go?
Until further notice, we can expect to see the bond market drift in a fairl...
Mon, Jul 20 2020, 9:40 AM
The bond market begins yet another week with rates in a holding pattern at historic lows. With coronavirus being the primary motivation for rates, it...
Fri, Jul 17 2020, 4:46 PM
Markets continue to focus on coronavirus numbers first and foremost. When the news is good , we tend to see stocks and rates move higher. When the new...
Fri, Jul 17 2020, 3:06 PM
Very Uneventful Week in The Bigger Picture
Heading into this week, we were hoping to see some consensus betw...
Fri, Jul 17 2020, 8:59 AM
One of the market themes that has been most noticeable and most reliable post-covid is that of the "stock lever"--our in-house term for the phenomenon...
Thu, Jul 16 2020, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower this morning as lenders got caught up with recent improvement in the bond market. The bond market is the primary considerat...
Thu, Jul 16 2020, 3:31 PM
The Downside of Ultra Low Rates
Actions and reactions are as true in the bond market as in the natural world...
Thu, Jul 16 2020, 8:31 AM
It used to be that rate watchers and mortgage originators could simply tune in to the economic data on any given day and expect a fairly logical and...
Wed, Jul 15 2020, 3:27 PM
Stocks and Bonds Confirm Hyperfocus on Covid Outlook
Coronavirus has been with us for so long and has caused...
Wed, Jul 15 2020, 8:58 AM
Coronavirus has been with us for so long and has caused such a huge paradigm shift that it's easy to lose sight of its importance as a day-to-day mark...
Tue, Jul 14 2020, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates recovered to some extent today, after moving slightly higher on Friday and yesterday. The bond market (which underlies rate movement) w...
Tue, Jul 14 2020, 3:36 PM
Bonds Surprisingly Resilient After Last Week's Scare
After last week's somewhat scary move higher in rates, ...
Tue, Jul 14 2020, 8:49 AM
Once again, stocks and bonds were largely flat in the overnight session and domestic trading begins with both sides of the market close to yesterday's...
Mon, Jul 13 2020, 3:38 PM
Fundamental Hope But Technical Caution
Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought...
Mon, Jul 13 2020, 8:51 AM
Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought when it comes to market analysis. Fundamental analysis focuses on all of thi...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 4:46 PM
It should no longer come as a surprise that the pandemic continues to create never-before-seen circumstances in all corners of society. Here in the ho...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 4:28 PM
Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary)
Just as bonds were settling into a nice ne...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 9:04 AM
Trend channels in financial markets are some of the most basic forms of analysis. They consist of lines drawn along the highs and lows of a charted s...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 4:25 PM
There are two kinds of headlines about mortgage rates today: those that rely on the weekly survey-based data published each Thursday by Freddie Mac, a...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 4:03 PM
Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend
We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 9:18 AM
We've talked a lot about the massive rift that opened up between mortgage rates and MBS yields as the pandemic hit markets several months ago. MBS yi...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged today for the average lender. That means they remain at all-time lows that are even lower than the all-time lows seen du...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 4:07 PM
Bonds Pull Back, But It's Still a Waiting Game
Despite some modest weakness to begin the day, bonds remain s...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 8:49 AM
There really wasn't much by way of riveting new developments on the radar heading into this week. A smattering of Fed speakers and relatively inconse...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 4:28 PM
Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?
Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates were already at all-time lows yesterday, and had been holding at those levels for at least 3 business days for the average lender. I no...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 8:52 AM
Conventional wisdom holds that stocks tend to do better when bonds do worse. The logic is simple. When investors feel more optimistic or more risk-t...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged for the third straight day, which is welcome news considering they are at all-time lows. The stability comes in spite of ...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 3:44 PM
Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?
Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 8:50 AM
Last week ended with a paradoxical reaction to a jobs report that was much stronger than expected. Although bonds did lose ground at first, they end...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 3:26 PM
This week's economic data included the biggest-ever gain in Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market. Meanwhile, mortgage rates ...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 3:26 PM
Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 8:19 AM
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation (2.509m) and for the gap between job growth and forecasts. ...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, thus leaving the average lender at all-time lows for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. It continues to...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 4:36 PM
Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes
After a quiet trading day yesterday, today proved to be even q...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 3:32 PM
The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting were released today. While there's not much left to be said when they've already been so clear about kee...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 8:37 AM
After a very slow start on Monday, yesterday's month-end trading session proved to be more consequential for Treasuries with yields ultimately rising ...
Tue, Jun 30 2020, 4:46 PM
Surprisingly Quiet Quarter-End Trading. No Objections Here
The last trading day of any given month (especia...
Tue, Jun 30 2020, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates managed another slight improvement today, which means the average lender is offering new all-time low rates for the 4th time this month...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly lower today, bringing the average lender right in line with all-time lows . Averages aside, several lenders ...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 2:59 PM
Lock vs Float Considerations With Rates at All-Time Lows
Stocks and bond yields are still in holding pattern...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 8:51 AM
This will be a deceptively informative week for financial markets. The biggest consideration continues to be the exponential growth of covid cases in...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 4:44 PM
The fates of the economy, the housing market, and interest rates remain closely intertwined with coronavirus. The pandemic is clearly responsible for ...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 4:41 PM
The Trend is Officially Broken. Welcome Back To The Range
Bond yields moved lower today, thus breaking out ...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 8:31 AM
Although markets are still sideways relative to the bigger volatility of the previous 3 weeks, bond yields have trickled lower this week. This brought...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower today, bringing the average lender very close to all-time lows . The caveat continues to be that day-to-day rate c...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 2:50 PM
Lots of Indecision, But The Outcome Should Make Sense
Both stocks and bonds are trading sideways after takin...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 9:08 AM
Let's get the housekeeping out of the way first. With so much talk in the news about the coronavirus effect on GDP, I figured I'd point out that toda...
