Fri, Jul 10 2020, 4:46 PM
It should no longer come as a surprise that the pandemic continues to create never-before-seen circumstances in all corners of society. Here in the ho...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 4:28 PM
Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary)
Just as bonds were settling into a nice ne...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 9:04 AM
Trend channels in financial markets are some of the most basic forms of analysis. They consist of lines drawn along the highs and lows of a charted s...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 4:25 PM
There are two kinds of headlines about mortgage rates today: those that rely on the weekly survey-based data published each Thursday by Freddie Mac, a...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 4:03 PM
Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend
We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 9:18 AM
We've talked a lot about the massive rift that opened up between mortgage rates and MBS yields as the pandemic hit markets several months ago. MBS yi...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged today for the average lender. That means they remain at all-time lows that are even lower than the all-time lows seen du...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 4:07 PM
Bonds Pull Back, But It's Still a Waiting Game
Despite some modest weakness to begin the day, bonds remain s...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 8:49 AM
There really wasn't much by way of riveting new developments on the radar heading into this week. A smattering of Fed speakers and relatively inconse...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 4:28 PM
Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?
Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates were already at all-time lows yesterday, and had been holding at those levels for at least 3 business days for the average lender. I no...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 8:52 AM
Conventional wisdom holds that stocks tend to do better when bonds do worse. The logic is simple. When investors feel more optimistic or more risk-t...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged for the third straight day, which is welcome news considering they are at all-time lows. The stability comes in spite of ...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 3:44 PM
Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?
Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 8:50 AM
Last week ended with a paradoxical reaction to a jobs report that was much stronger than expected. Although bonds did lose ground at first, they end...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 3:26 PM
This week's economic data included the biggest-ever gain in Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market. Meanwhile, mortgage rates ...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 3:26 PM
Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 8:19 AM
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation (2.509m) and for the gap between job growth and forecasts. ...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, thus leaving the average lender at all-time lows for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. It continues to...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 4:36 PM
Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes
After a quiet trading day yesterday, today proved to be even q...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 3:32 PM
The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting were released today. While there's not much left to be said when they've already been so clear about kee...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 8:37 AM
After a very slow start on Monday, yesterday's month-end trading session proved to be more consequential for Treasuries with yields ultimately rising ...
Tue, Jun 30 2020, 4:46 PM
Surprisingly Quiet Quarter-End Trading. No Objections Here
The last trading day of any given month (especia...
Tue, Jun 30 2020, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates managed another slight improvement today, which means the average lender is offering new all-time low rates for the 4th time this month...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly lower today, bringing the average lender right in line with all-time lows . Averages aside, several lenders ...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 2:59 PM
Lock vs Float Considerations With Rates at All-Time Lows
Stocks and bond yields are still in holding pattern...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 8:51 AM
This will be a deceptively informative week for financial markets. The biggest consideration continues to be the exponential growth of covid cases in...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 4:44 PM
The fates of the economy, the housing market, and interest rates remain closely intertwined with coronavirus. The pandemic is clearly responsible for ...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 4:41 PM
The Trend is Officially Broken. Welcome Back To The Range
Bond yields moved lower today, thus breaking out ...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 8:31 AM
Although markets are still sideways relative to the bigger volatility of the previous 3 weeks, bond yields have trickled lower this week. This brought...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower today, bringing the average lender very close to all-time lows . The caveat continues to be that day-to-day rate c...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 2:50 PM
Lots of Indecision, But The Outcome Should Make Sense
Both stocks and bonds are trading sideways after takin...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 9:08 AM
Let's get the housekeeping out of the way first. With so much talk in the news about the coronavirus effect on GDP, I figured I'd point out that toda...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 3:28 PM
Rising Rates Thwarted By Coronavirus Concerns
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but rates are low due...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 3:26 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower today, but face an uphill battle in general. They fell very quickly as coronavirus first hit financial markets. Th...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 9:30 AM
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but rates are low due to an unprecedented global emergency. Unless coronavirus situations deteriorates signif...
Tue, Jun 23 2020, 4:16 PM
It seems almost melodramatic to refer to any modest increase in mortgage rates these days. If we were to go over each lender's rate sheet with a fine ...
Tue, Jun 23 2020, 4:16 PM
Decent Day For MBS But Broader Trend Remains a Concern
Rates are low. Unless coronavirus wins (or looks like...
Tue, Jun 23 2020, 8:42 AM
We've definitely seen Treasuries improve relative to MBS more often than not in the past week or two. The most obvious driving force behind that ph...
Mon, Jun 22 2020, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates held their ground today, with the average lender in roughly the same shape as they were on Friday. Incidentally, that's great shape! Wh...
Mon, Jun 22 2020, 3:06 PM
Locking vs Floating Remains a Question of Covid vs The Economy
Rates are low. Unless coronavirus wins, rates...
Mon, Jun 22 2020, 8:55 AM
The bond market is starting the day fairly flat. Each of the past 4 trading days has seen yields end lower than they began. And over the past two we...
Fri, Jun 19 2020, 4:33 PM
Putting MBS Underperformance in Perspective
Rates are low. Unless coronavirus wins, rates should continue to...
Fri, Jun 19 2020, 4:32 PM
Coronavirus hit markets with unprecedented force in March. Stock prices and bond yields sank. When the outlook grew less dire, markets began moving ba...
Thu, Jun 18 2020, 8:17 PM
Mortgage rates improved modestly today as investors remain cautious amidst rising coronavirus stats in several states. The experience of those states ...
Thu, Jun 18 2020, 3:10 PM
Sideways Victory For Bonds and Rates
We've been tracking both a sideways trend and an uptrend in bond yields...
Thu, Jun 18 2020, 8:34 AM
The bond market had been very flat with yields near all time lows since mid-April. If there was any predisposition toward strength or weakness during...
Wed, Jun 17 2020, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates joined many other sections of financial markets today in doing almost absolutely nothing . Both stocks and bonds were almost perfectly ...
Wed, Jun 17 2020, 4:07 PM
Which Way Do We Go?
Markets continue trying to sort out the prospects for a recovery vs the risk of covid-19...
Wed, Jun 17 2020, 8:35 AM
Perspective is always important when considering market movement. Most decent charting software or any responsibly-created custom chart will scale th...
