Thu, Dec 19 2019, 4:46 PM
First thing's first: putting too much time/thought into the writing or reading of bond market analysis this time of year isn't really necessary. If th...
Thu, Dec 19 2019, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates were somewhat higher again today--the 4th day in a row that we've been forced to observe such mildly unpleasant things. Technically, th...
Thu, Dec 19 2019, 8:39 AM
My 12-year old emails me from the next room when he's doing homework sometimes. It only happens a few times a year and only when it's really serious....
Wed, Dec 18 2019, 5:00 PM
Frustrating day for market watchers today as bonds suffered moderate losses despite a complete absence of any compelling market movers. These sorts o...
Wed, Dec 18 2019, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today, but remained well within the range that's been intact for at least a month now. During that time, the av...
Wed, Dec 18 2019, 9:18 AM
With trading activity rapidly winding down and with the end of the year rapidly approaching, rather than send you a forced rehash of the same old comm...
Tue, Dec 17 2019, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rates didn't do much today, and that's the sort of thing that could get to be all too familiar as we head into the end of the year. With the ...
Tue, Dec 17 2019, 9:35 AM
Based on volumes, liquidity, and most importantly, the calendar itself, there's a compelling case to be made for closing the book on 2019 as a trading...
Mon, Dec 16 2019, 5:40 PM
Friday was a somewhat glorious day for bond markets, but perhaps only because Thursday was so terrible. Both of those sessions were completely driven...
Mon, Dec 16 2019, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates were nicely lower on Friday, though not quite as nicely as we would hope or expect. Why is that? Simply put, the bond market (which und...
Mon, Dec 16 2019, 9:14 AM
Have you ever worried about the negative repercussions of some anticipated event in your life only to find out they weren't so bad? For the bond mark...
Fri, Dec 13 2019, 5:10 PM
Bonds were leading off in a slightly friendly direction during the overnight session, largely because we hadn't really heard from China with respect t...
Fri, Dec 13 2019, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates were somewhat distressed , to say the least, after yesterday's various news stories pertaining to the US/China trade deal. For a variet...
Fri, Dec 13 2019, 11:05 AM
The litany of updates/alerts listed below effectively serves to frame the launch sequence for today's trading. If you don't care to wade through the ...
Thu, Dec 12 2019, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates jumped quickly higher today following a series of headlines/tweets regarding the probability of a US/China trade deal ahead of Sunday's...
Thu, Dec 12 2019, 9:15 AM
Yesterday brought a nice little rally in response to a surprisingly rate-friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell. The counterpoint to that co...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 4:55 PM
We moved from NFP not mattering (and then causing a surprisingly big intraday stir) to the Fed undergoing quite a similar routine. Granted, in the bi...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates improved today following the Federal Reserve's policy announcement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The Fed doesn't set mortgag...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September October indicates that the labor market remains strong and that econo...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 8:32 AM
Last week, I stunned the world by claiming that NFP (the nonfarm payrolls component of the big jobs report) "didn't matter." OK, maybe not the whole ...
Tue, Dec 10 2019, 5:15 PM
Last week saw an apparently important jobs report ATTEMPT to have a lasting impact on financial markets only for the move to be completely erased by t...
Tue, Dec 10 2019, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates moved up modestly today as bond markets weakened in response to trade headlines. This week's key consideration on the trade front is wh...
Tue, Dec 10 2019, 8:33 AM
In the grand scheme of things, today will likely be another placeholder of a day unless some unexpected (and fairly significant) trade war update happ...
Mon, Dec 9 2019, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates reacted somewhat harshly to an incredibly strong jobs report last Friday. At the time, I noted that such a jobs report would typically ...
Mon, Dec 9 2019, 9:07 AM
It's been almost exactly 3 months since the quick rate spike in early September. That, of course, followed an impressive run to the lowest rates in m...
Fri, Dec 6 2019, 3:30 PM
This morning's commentary was titled "NFP Doesn't Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)." Apparently NFP didn't like being called out because it did...
Fri, Dec 6 2019, 1:45 PM
Mortgage rates were pushed higher for the 3rd day in a row following an incredibly strong jobs report. For decades, if you were to ask anyone with a r...
Fri, Dec 6 2019, 8:31 AM
First Friday of the month, and thus time for the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Also known simply as "the jobs report," no other piece of economic data...
Thu, Dec 5 2019, 5:41 PM
After the little bout of whipsaw volatility of the past 3 trading sessions, it will be a tall order for even the mighty NFP to move markets much tom...
Thu, Dec 5 2019, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates have seen a fair amount of volatility so far this week, dropping quickly on Tuesday and moving in the opposite direction since then. Be...
Thu, Dec 5 2019, 9:48 AM
Bonds took Trump at his word in the wee hours of Tuesday morning with respect to waiting until Nov 2020 (or later) to finalize a trade deal with China...
Wed, Dec 4 2019, 4:28 PM
Bonds sold off clearly and somewhat abruptly following a Bloomberg article on the trade negotiations being in better shape than markets might assume b...
Wed, Dec 4 2019, 3:29 PM
Mortgage rates dropped sharply yesterday after having risen to the highest levels in 2 weeks the day before. Yesterday's culprit was trade war related...
Wed, Dec 4 2019, 8:28 AM
Trade headlines rocked markets yesterday, making for the biggest single-day bond rally since early August--even after the gains moderated in the after...
Tue, Dec 3 2019, 5:36 PM
One short day after sending somewhat alarming signals about a move back up toward the top of the recent range, the bond market bounced back with a ven...
Tue, Dec 3 2019, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates were up to the highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday, but that was then and this is now. In the wee hours of the morning, trade-related h...
Tue, Dec 3 2019, 9:03 AM
Yesterday saw bonds jump up to the highest yields in more than 2 weeks. Culprits were diverse, including stronger overseas econ data and new trading ...
Mon, Dec 2 2019, 4:11 PM
As the bond market shook off the holiday weekend lethargy and metaphorically (and literally) returned to the office, it was met with an immediate bar...
Mon, Dec 2 2019, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates increased moderately to begin the new week/month and had been increasing in general during the previous week. The net effect is some le...
Mon, Dec 2 2019, 10:10 AM
Welcome to the last few trading weeks of 2019--3 or them to be precise. After that, the Christmas and New Year holidays will mean we can't trust the ...
Fri, Nov 29 2019, 9:48 AM
Due to the holiday-shortened work week, today's economic calendar is empty and Wednesday's was about as clogged as it ever gets, with the following re...
Wed, Nov 27 2019, 2:38 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, leaving them roughly in the middle of November's narrow range. Although banks and many mortgage lenders wi...
Tue, Nov 26 2019, 5:24 PM
For those of you who are MBS Live members, yes, the recap title is the same as the MBS Huddle. Sorry for the lack of creativity, but this is an unins...
Tue, Nov 26 2019, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates recovered today after moving higher for the first time in nearly 2 weeks yesterday. In the bigger picture, rates have been in a back-an...
Tue, Nov 26 2019, 9:10 AM
Bonds have been doing fairly well for the past 2.5 weeks as yields have backed down from the 3-month highs seen at the beginning of the month. Over t...
Mon, Nov 25 2019, 4:28 PM
Attempting to competently perform bond market analysis on Thanksgiving week is a dangerous game. It will either drive a person insane(r), or simply l...
Mon, Nov 25 2019, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates finally moved a bit higher today after avoiding such things for nearly 2 full weeks. The losses were mild today, but nonetheless take t...
Mon, Nov 25 2019, 9:11 AM
I've been staring at this blank space on my monitor, where I normally put the words for the opening post of the day/week, for about 40 minutes, trying...
Fri, Nov 22 2019, 5:53 PM
'Twasn't the night before Christmas today, but 'twas the week before Thanksgiving. The "stirring creature" quotient is in the same ballpark. And for...
Fri, Nov 22 2019, 5:34 PM
Mortgage rates ended their recent winning streak yesterday, but they have yet to try to get a losing streak started! In other words, rates bottomed ou...
