Bonds Add to Case For Stability
Bonds put in a solid enough performance on Thursday with 10yr yields almost perfectly unchanged by the 3pm CME close. MBS outperformed, but not by enough to require investigation or explanation. The morning's economic data was mixed, with a surprisingly strong Philly Fed survey producing a brief, negative reaction in bonds. After that, yields fell with stocks at the 930am NYSE open and stayed flat after 11am. In the bigger picture, today's ho-hum performance helps reiterate a case for support after a quick move up from 1.41 to 1.65 (10yr yield) over the past 2 weeks.
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm
Jobless Claims 268k vs 260k f'cast, 269k prev
Philly Fed Index 39.0 vs 24.0 f'cast, 23.8 prev
Another quiet overnight session. Flat in Asia then modestly weaker in Europe. No major impact from data. 10yr up 1.6 bps at 1.601 and MBS down 2 ticks (0.06).
Nice bounce starting at 9:30, lining up with losses in the stock market. 10yr was briefly positive on the day, but bounced back up to +0.4bps at 1.589. MBS are up 1 tick (0.03).
Very flat since 11am. 10yr perfectly unchanged at 1.585 and MBS up 2 ticks (0.06).