Tue, Jun 25 2024, 3:06 PM
Decent 2yr Auction, But No Major Inspiration For Bonds
We've increasingly revisited the concept of the "insi...
Tue, Jun 25 2024, 2:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been flatter than the earth according to the flat earth society. Much like the actual earth in many areas in the middle of the co...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 3:36 PM
No Major Data, No Major Movement
It was a snoozer of a day for bonds with yields and MBS prices holding well...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 3:26 PM
Most mortgage lenders offer mortgage rates in increments of 0.125% (i.e. 6.875, 7.0, 7.125, 7.25, etc.). As such, a particularly notable day of mortg...
Mon, Jun 24 2024, 10:18 AM
With last Friday's range in 10yr yields of roughly 4.22 to 4.27, there was narrow window for today being an "inside day" (i.e. when the previous sessi...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 4:41 PM
Ultimately an Uneventful Week Despite Micro-Volatility
This morning featured an overnight rally driven by we...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 4:37 PM
After a rocky start to the year, things began to improve for rates and the inflation outlook in May. June took the improvement to the next level, but ...
Fri, Jun 21 2024, 10:56 AM
S&P Global (formerly Markit) PMIs are the standard PMI around the world, but have long been second fiddle to ISM PMIs in the U.S. That's certainly st...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 3:26 PM
Counterintuitive Weakness Early, But Inconsequential in Bigger Picture
The past two trading days each had th...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 3:12 PM
The bond market was closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. As such, mortgage lenders were either closed or unable to update mortgage rates b...
Thu, Jun 20 2024, 11:07 AM
On Tuesday, bonds had an initial, positive reaction to the Retail Sales data that clearly ended mere minutes after the release. Yields trended slight...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 4:13 PM
Additional Mid-Day Gains Independent of Data and Events
Bonds traded the day in two distinct sections. Firs...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates began the week with a modest move back up and over the 7% threshold, but managed to erase some of those losses today. The improvement ...
Tue, Jun 18 2024, 10:19 AM
It's nearly impossible to avoid hearing the phrase "data dependent" when following financial markets these days and this morning's movement is the lat...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:40 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Give Back Some of Last Week's Gains
After rallying from roughly 4.45 to 4.22% l...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher to start the new week. With the average top tier 30yr fixed rate just under 7% on Friday, this meant a move to j...
Mon, Jun 17 2024, 11:17 AM
Last week, MBS underperformance was front and center. One of the justifications was the fact that MBS almost always underperform when Treasuries go o...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 3:36 PM
Once More: What's Up With MBS Underperformance?
The notion of MBS underperforming Treasuries is front and ce...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 3:27 PM
Today saw the average conventional 30yr fixed rate rise ever so slightly for top tier scenarios. Most lenders are still quoting those scenarios just ...
Fri, Jun 14 2024, 1:07 PM
The bond market has a lot on its mind after this past week of economic data and events. Inflation quickly and increasingly looks like it may (finally...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 3:46 PM
Helpful Data, MBS Underperformance, Is This Time Different?
The bond market reacted favorably to this mornin...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 3:35 PM
You'd have to go back to March 28th to see the average mortgage lender offering a lower rate on a top tier, conventional 30yr fixed scenario than they...
Thu, Jun 13 2024, 10:48 AM
In a nutshell, this morning's economic data rapidly reversed the weakness seen after yesterday's Fed announcement, thus restoring the lowest yields ac...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:22 PM
Massive CPI Rally Cut in Half After Fed Announcement
As discussed in the AM commentary, bonds rallied sharpl...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 4:10 PM
It was an incredibly high consequence day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates due to the confluence of two extremely important events. The ...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate ha...
Wed, Jun 12 2024, 10:32 AM
There are so many line items in the CPI data that it would be hard to imagine a truly perfect report. In today's case, one could still take exception...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:53 PM
Treasury Auction Helps Bonds Hold The Range
If yesterday was a placeholder ahead of bigger ticket events, an...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 3:30 PM
Today's mortgage rates were fairly close to yesterday's at the average lender for the 3rd business day in a row. Friday was the last day with any sub...
Tue, Jun 11 2024, 10:20 AM
Not every day is destined to be significant (or even interesting) for the bond market. Depending on the outcome of today's only relevant calendar eve...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 3:24 PM
Straightforward Session as Traders Wait For More
Monday ended up being rather uneventful for the bond despit...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 3:02 PM
There's been a noticeable uptick in mortgage rate volatility over the past two weeks with a quick spike at the end of May, a nice drop in early June a...
Mon, Jun 10 2024, 10:55 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has done more than any other report to shape trends in the bond market in the past year. At times (such as the middle ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 4:06 PM
What Jobs Report? Bring on CPI and the Fed
Bonds made it almost all week putting on a superhuman display of...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 3:32 PM
There's a strong case to be made for the fact that interest rates had a sunny predisposition this week. In practical terms, that simply meant giving ...
Fri, Jun 7 2024, 12:23 PM
Whether it was a magical combination of Treasury auction timing and new month trading or a legitimate shift in response to Monday's ISM Manufacturing ...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 4:12 PM
Bonds Continue Taking Their Seats Ahead of The Big Show
Although bonds continued to improve yesterday, the p...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 4:00 PM
The outcome of certain economic reports will determine whether the next big move in interest rates is higher or lower. Two reports are more important...
Thu, Jun 6 2024, 10:00 AM
We've been anticipating this week of data for the past 3 weeks and it has been delivering on the promise of increased motivation for the bond market. ...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 4:08 PM
Counterintuitive Reaction to Data, But We're Not Upset
The bond market did not stick to its usual script tod...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 3:46 PM
The phrase "data dependent" is ingrained in the current bond market psychology for good reason. Weaker trends in economic data will reliably cause th...
Wed, Jun 5 2024, 10:52 AM
ISM produces two PMIs. Both of them have a strong track record of inspiring market movement with today's service sector version being the bigger deal...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 4:18 PM
For most lenders, you'd still see modestly lower rates on several days in mid May, but apart from that, you'd need to go all the way back to early Apr...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 4:16 PM
More Gains After JOLTS, But They Might Have Happened Anyway
The winning streak continues for the bond market...
Tue, Jun 4 2024, 9:56 AM
Once again, the bond market is starting the domestic session with 10yr yields several bps lower day-over-day. We can credit European bonds for that o...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 3:23 PM
Mortgage rates had a rough go of it in the 4 days following Memorial Day weekend (i.e. last week). To be fair, the tough part was limited to the first...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 3:22 PM
Solid Gains Despite MBS Underperformance
US Treasuries had a tough time digesting auction supply last week, ...
Mon, Jun 3 2024, 10:23 AM
As far as economic data goes, there's CPI, NFP, and then there's everything else. In the "everything else" category, a small group of 3-6 report vie ...
Fri, May 31 2024, 4:23 PM
Data Driven Rally, But Next Week's Data is More Important
By the end of this holiday-shortened week, bonds d...
Fri, May 31 2024, 4:08 PM
This week got off to a late start as markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Upon returning to the office, traders began pushing rates higher ...
