Fri, May 6 2022, 4:58 PM
It was yet another tough week for the mortgage market with rates rising to their highest levels since 2009, but how high have they actually risen? Th...
Fri, May 6 2022, 4:54 PM
Rates Give Up After Briefly Trying to Hold Yesterday's Ceiling
There really weren't any new reasons for the ...
Fri, May 6 2022, 12:29 PM
The jobs report is traditionally the most important piece of economic data on any given month. It's even had the power to move the bond market as rec...
Thu, May 5 2022, 6:49 PM
Good news continues to be in short supply for mortgage rates. In fact, even the good news has ended up being bad on many recent occasions. Today i...
Thu, May 5 2022, 4:40 PM
Big Sell Off After a Nice Rally. Blame The Fed Either Way?
Today was one of the rare breed where both stock...
Thu, May 5 2022, 1:04 PM
Solid Fed day and solid rally in response yesterday... Now today, it's not just a complete 180°, but a 180° plus more insult to injury as yields surg...
Wed, May 4 2022, 4:47 PM
Today brought the much-anticipated policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. Many people mistakenly believe that the Fed's present day decisions ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 4:30 PM
Fed Finally Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It
Fed days have seen a series of increasingly hawkish adjustments ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 2:01 PM
Indicators Although of overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and employment business have fixed ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 10:09 AM
At the risk of repeating too many words from yesterday's recap, we'll leave it at this: the Fed will hike by 50bps today. It won't be a surprise to t...
Tue, May 3 2022, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels since 2009 yesterday amid the fastest spike since the early 1980s. Today's rates were very similar on avera...
Tue, May 3 2022, 4:03 PM
Fed Day Preview: What Are They Doing and How Much Will Bonds Care?
Given all the bond market volatility seen...
Tue, May 3 2022, 11:23 AM
10yr yields came into the day looking comfortable in the rejection of the 3% ceiling that was briefly tested yesterday and overnight. That occurred a...
Mon, May 2 2022, 4:06 PM
Rocky Start to Fed's Normalization Revelation Week
The Fed has been in full-fledged policy tightening mode i...
Mon, May 2 2022, 3:44 PM
The hits keep coming for mortgage rates in 2022. Not since the early 80s have rates risen as quickly as they have in the past 2 months (or the past 4...
Mon, May 2 2022, 10:05 AM
In addition to bringing the typical big market movers scheduled for the first week of any given month, we'll also get a fairly important Fed announcem...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 4:52 PM
The first few months of 2022 have seen rates rise at the fastest pace since the 1980s as a confluence of known issues collided with unexpected volatil...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 4:46 PM
Insult to Injury But Still Waiting on Next Week's Fed
Mixed messages in the morning's PCE inflation data sen...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 11:59 AM
This morning's much-anticipated core PCE inflation headline came out at 5.2% year-over-year versus a median forecast and previous reading of 5.3%. Gr...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 4:22 PM
Nice Intraday Bounce, But No Implication For Bigger Picture
Bonds began the day losing ground following hott...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 4:14 PM
Last Friday, mortgage rates hit their highest levels since 2009 with the average lender quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 5.5%. Things weren't...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 11:40 AM
Yesterday, we surmised that the absence of new rally momentum meant rates weren't yet ready to confirm a major ceiling without digesting a bit more da...
Wed, Apr 27 2022, 3:58 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Hit Several Snags
In the bigger picture, the absence of any new rally momentum ...
Wed, Apr 27 2022, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates are most directly affected by trading levels in the bond market--specifically those of mortgage-backed securities or MBS. It was a som...
Wed, Apr 27 2022, 11:06 AM
If only the bond rally of the past 2 days had begun next Monday... Due to its "one week early" timing, the result has been a technical correction tha...
Tue, Apr 26 2022, 3:54 PM
More Gains, But Harder to Hold After Europe Stopped Trading
Bonds made decent gains overnight as overseas ma...
Tue, Apr 26 2022, 10:44 AM
Here at the end of April, bonds are seeing a similar rally to the one seen at the end of March. At least that's true in terms of the number of days o...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 4:11 PM
New Bounce, But Same Question
Rates rallied briskly today as investors focused on China's covid lockdowns, o...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 3:50 PM
Thursday and Friday weren't great days for the mortgage market last week. Rates jumped sharply on Thursday and then drifted just a bit higher on Frid...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 9:42 AM
Global equities indices fell sharply at various opening bells (and the closing bell too, as far as Asia was concerned). This was less of a concern fo...
Fri, Apr 22 2022, 6:26 PM
It's hard to avoid bad news about rising mortgage rates in 2022, but you can't believe everything you read. It is true that mortgage rates have been ...
Fri, Apr 22 2022, 3:26 PM
Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds
Whether we're talking about actual Fridays or Thursdays that fall bef...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 4:07 PM
Thursday marks the weekly release of the industry's most widely cited mortgage rate survey. All manner of news outlets rely on the survey to generate...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 3:38 PM
Daly Upstages Powell in Today's Fed Drama
With both Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde scheduled to ...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 11:35 AM
The centerpiece of today's event calendar is a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF. Both Powell and ECB President Lagarde are on...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 4:01 PM
Strong Auction Lost in Shuffle as Bonds Enjoy an Easy Win
Sometimes during massive selling sprees, the tradi...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels since 2009 yesterday amid one of the most abrupt spikes seen during the adult lifetime of the average prospe...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 11:27 AM
We could certainly discuss the fact that bonds are improving so far today amid a strong curve flattening trade, but recent experience suggests we wait...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 6:03 PM
Where do we even begin the conversation about mortgage rates on any given day in the spring of 2022? The news has frequently fallen into the category...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 5:25 PM
Fed Speakers and Corporate Bonds Keep Negative Momentum Intact
Bonds came into the domestic session moderate...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 11:20 AM
Another day, another brutal sell-off with little by way of compelling justification. This one may actually be more simple than it seems at first glan...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 4:50 PM
The average mortgage lender was quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 5.25% last Monday for top tier scenarios--the highest since late 2018. Rat...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 4:36 PM
Flat Day For MBS as Markets Wait For More Activity
With most of Europe out of the office, volume got off to ...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 12:14 PM
With it being the Monday after a 3.5 day weekend, with London closed, and no significant data on the econ calendar, today's marching orders are to act...
Thu, Apr 14 2022, 2:49 PM
Here's a happy but unhappy coincidence: weekly rate surveys (which often lag reality) and actual daily mortgage rates are actually on the same page to...
Thu, Apr 14 2022, 2:35 PM
Another False Alarm Turns Into Bond Market Beat-Down
If today's bond market behavior wasn't making us cry, w...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 4:47 PM
When it comes to financial markets and mortgage rates, things rarely happen in straight lines. Each time rates spiked to new multi-year highs in rece...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 4:01 PM
How About Now (For A Ceiling in Rates) ?
Producer prices surged much higher than expected in this morning's ...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 12:09 PM
The bond market is running out of potential market movers on this holiday-shortened week with this afternoon's 30yr bond auction and tomorrow's ECB an...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 5:03 PM
There's no question that today was one of the few recent examples of a "good day" for most of the bond market and, consequently, mortgage rates. The ...
