The Fed looks at Twitter to gauge the financial sentiment out there? Yes: TFSI! The Federal Reserve certainly finds itself in a maelstrom these days… it’s as if we have nothing else to talk about. This weekend Robbie and I head to Boise for the Pacific Northwest Mortgage Lenders Conference where I’m sure the Fed and its members will be discussed, as will Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and his estranged wife Angela who claim three houses as “owner occupied” similar to Fed Governor Lisa Cook. President Trump’s cabinet has members whose names have “mortgage fraud” attached to them. In addition, what about Pulte Homes, or Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, which Bill Pulte oversees? Last week the Wall Street Journal questioned if it is only Democrats that fudge on mortgage applications. Or if mortgage misrepresentations are this common, it’s an indictment of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (Let me know if you don’t have a subscription and want to read the article; I can send it along.) “Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) director Bill Pulte has access to these files because he oversees Fannie and Freddie, which combined guarantee about half of single-family mortgages. If Mr. Pulte can flyspeck mortgage inaccuracies, why didn’t lenders or the two government-sponsored enterprises he regulates?” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by Gallus Insights. Mortgage KPIs, automated, at your fingertips. Gallus allows you to turn data from your various databases and systems into automated business intelligence and actionable insights. Hear an interview with Gallus’ Augie Del Rio on cross-functional analytics and its evolving relationship with AI, as well as the true value of tech providers beyond data.)

Services, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers

Mark your calendars for the Optimal Blue Summit, taking place February 23 – 25 at Talking Stick Resort and Conference Center in Scottsdale, Arizona. This event brings together Optimal Blue clients, integration partners, and industry experts for three days of insights, strategy, and connection. Attendees will get early access to the company’s latest AI and automation innovations, solutions built to reshape capital markets strategies and streamline execution. Optimal Blue CEO Joe Tyrrell says it best: “We don’t just talk about innovation… We deliver it.” From expert-led sessions and hands-on tech showcases to curated networking with capital markets leaders, every element of the Summit is designed to give attendees a competitive edge and help them maximize profitability. Early bird registration is available for just $199. Spots are limited. Secure your ticket today and be first to experience an event where proven mortgage expertise meets modern innovation to shape what's next.

Gallus Insights gives lenders Mortgage Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) via an automated process, at your fingertips with a few clicks. Gallus allows you to turn data from your various databases and systems into automated business intelligence and actionable insights. It offers a strategic platform that breaks that cycle by integrating data, automating analytics, and delivering a Google-like self-service technology. Contact hello@gallusinsights.com for more information and to see how Gallus can help monitor and build your business.

MortgageFlex has really stepped up to address a major pain point in the mortgage servicing default industry: legacy systems that are often clunky and inefficient for managing defaults. With delinquency rates at 3.5%, servicers are under more pressure than ever to manage defaults efficiently. Default management is incredibly complex due to the different rules and regulations by state. By offering customizable, state-specific default Flex-Templates, servicers can quickly adjust workflows, reducing compliance risk. Here's a quick breakdown of why this new cloud-based solution from MortgageFlex is such a game changer: Automated Data Scrubbing Tools for onboarding, Open API’s for Integrations, Minimal upfront costs & Transaction-based pricing, and free data access. Success Stories: A large servicer has already come on board and will be live in under 45 days. They are not only able to improve their efficiency but also have a willing partner, which allows them to make changes and build their own integrations quickly. See us in action at the falls shows. Contact John McCrea.

Join American Heritage Lending for a free, live webinar designed to help brokers and loan officers uncover exciting opportunities in the fast-growing 5–10 unit investment property market. Date: Wednesday, September 17, time: 1PM ET. In just 45 minutes, you’ll gain insights into: The size and growth potential of the 5–10-unit market, proven strategies to find investors and source deals, flexible financing options that outshine traditional bank terms, real-world case studies in a live Q&A session. Whether you’re looking to expand your pipeline or provide better solutions to your clients, this session will give you the tools and confidence to succeed. Register today and take the first step toward growing your business! Click here to register.

Want to help your borrowers buy first with $0 down and make cash-like offers to win? Flyhomes is hosting a live webinar on Sep 10 to walk through Buy Before You Sell with Flyhomes Cash Offer, a purchase bridge loan that helps unlock equity from both your borrower’s current and future homes, enabling up to 105% LTV with no contingencies and no asset liquidation. Save your spot now or book a call today to learn more. Over the past 10 years, Flyhomes has helped 5,000+ buyers move into their next home. On average, LOs close 1.2 more loans per month with Buy Before You Sell, now available nationwide.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Training and Webinars

First off, in yesterday’s calendar for upcoming in-person events, one was missing. The New England Mortgage Bankers Conference (NEMBC) should be on your conference schedule for September 17-19. Here is the link to register.

There are the National MI, ARCH MI, MGIC, Essent, Radian, and Enact training calendars.

Today’s episode of Last Word at 10am PT, hosts Brian Vieaux, Christy Soukhamneut, Courtney Thompson, and Kevin Peranio explore recent shifts in the mortgage market, focusing on the spate of economic news that has hit the market and the latest out of the Agencies.

On Monday the 8th’s episode of Now Next Later at 10am PT, Sasha and Jeremy sit down with Terri Davis from Cotality to cover how lenders can use data and update their lead gen and application process.

Tuesday the 9th’s episode of MortgagePros411, at 2PM ET, Audrey and Kevin focus on originator’s topics and will host NAR economist Nadia Evangelou to discuss government releases and their accuracy.

Ron Gapp, Founding Partner at Brody Gapp LLP, will host a complimentary webinar on Tuesday, September 9, at 10:00 AM PT titled “Loan Officer Compensation in 2025: Compliance, Litigation Trends, and Strategic Planning.” Attendees will learn the latest LO comp rules, litigation signals, and strategies to design compliant, competitive plans that withstand audits.” Click here to register or contact Ron at (909) 952-3076. (If you missed Brody Gapp LLP’s prior webinar, titled “2025 Annual Regulatory Roundup,” with the firm’s Managing Partner, James Brody, click here for a complimentary copy of the PowerPoint.)

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday the 10th at 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One.

Join MBA's Legislative and Political Affairs Team during the next Mortgage Action Alliance (MAA) Quarterly Webinar on Wednesday, September 10, from 3:00-4:00 PM ET to discuss the remaining agenda for Congress in 2025 and beyond. With both the House and the Senate scheduled to return to Washington for three work weeks on September 2, Congress will likely have a busy month, with various policy issues and budget matters on the agenda, including avoiding a government shutdown. Register now for this can't-miss virtual event!

Want to help your borrowers buy first with $0 down and make cash-like offers to win? Flyhomes is hosting a live webinar on Sep 10 to walk through Buy Before You Sell with Flyhomes Cash Offer, a purchase bridge loan that helps unlock equity from both your borrower’s current and future homes, enabling up to 105% LTV with no contingencies and no asset liquidation. Save your spot now or book a call today to learn more. Over the past 10 years, Flyhomes has helped 5,000+ buyers move into their next home. On average, LOs close 1.2 more loans per month with Buy Before You Sell, now available nationwide.

Thursday the 11th will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET. Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests. You can click here to register for next week’s show featuring fan fave Mark McArdle.

On September 15, 8:00 AM-12:30 PM, MBA Education is offering a half-day AI training that is tied to the MISMO Fall Summit. This four-hour intensive training provides a clear, practical overview of how Artificial Intelligence (AI) can drive efficiency and innovation in the mortgage industry. Designed for professionals already using AI and who are ready to boost their productivity and decision-making, this course connects AI’s evolution directly to your daily work.

Join American Heritage Lending for a live webinar on 9/17 at 1MP ET designed to help brokers and loan officers uncover exciting opportunities in the fast-growing 5–10-unit investment property market. In just 45 minutes, you’ll gain insights into: The size and growth potential of the 5–10-unit market, Proven strategies to find investors and source deals, flexible financing options that outshine traditional bank terms, real-world case studies in a live Q&A session. This session will give you the tools and confidence to succeed. Register today and take the first step toward growing your business! Click here to register.

The Chrisman Commentary is pleased to bring you a variety of video shows hosted on Zoom throughout the week. Take your pick: We have a show focused on technology and innovation (Now Next Later Mondays at 1pm ET), origination (Mortgage Pros Tuesdays at 2pm ET), big-name interviews (Mortgage Matters Wednesdays at 2pm ET, presented by Lenders One), headline news (The Big Picture Thursday’s at 3pm ET), opinion (Last Word Fridays at 1pm ET), advisory services (Advisory Angle first Tuesday of the month at 2pm ET, presented by STRATMOR Group), capital markets (Capital Markets Wrap second Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET, presented by Polly), mortgage legal issues (Mortgage Law Today third Tuesday of the month at 3pm ET), and reaching the next generation of homeowners (Mortgages with Millennials last Tuesday of the month at 1pm ET, presented by The Mortgage Collaborative). (If you don’t see a presenting sponsor, please reach out to Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt to inquire about opportunities.)

Capital Markets

Did the Fed overlook the labor market part of its dual mandate as it fought inflation over the past couple of years? Recent data continues to signal a rapidly cooling U.S. labor market, with initial jobless claims rising to 237k (the highest since June and above economists’ expectations), while private-sector payroll growth slowed sharply in August to just 54k, according to ADP, roughly half the pace of the prior month. This softening aligns with other indicators, including declining job openings, slower wage growth, and job seekers taking longer to find employment.

At the same time, we learned yesterday that the Institute of Supply Management Services Index showed modest growth in August, but its employment component remained in contraction territory for the third straight month. Manufacturing activity has now contracted for six consecutive months, underscoring broad-based economic moderation. As a result of that heap of data yesterday, bond markets rallied on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may move to cut interest rates later this month.

While we’re on the Fed, the Trump administration has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook amid efforts by Trump to remove her from office, citing unproven allegations of mortgage fraud, which Cook and her legal team strongly deny. Though she has not been charged with any wrongdoing, Cook argues the move is politically motivated, and part of Trump’s broader push to reshape the central bank with loyalists willing to cut interest rates. She has filed a lawsuit to challenge her removal, with her legal team asserting that the president lacks the authority to dismiss her without cause.

The Supreme Court is expected to ultimately weigh in, given its previous stance that the Fed’s structure affords it a unique degree of independence from presidential control. Meanwhile, Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee for a vacant Fed seat, emphasized his commitment to central bank independence during a tense confirmation hearing yesterday, though many Democrats view him as another partisan pick aimed at undermining the Fed’s autonomy.

Further, economist Elliot Eisenberg reminded me that “Since 1980, there have been nine Fed easing cycles. Across those cycles, the Fed funds rate reduction averaged 232-basis points and the reduction in the 10-year Treasury averaged 72-basis points. Around a recession, cuts averaged 400-basis points and the decline in the 10-year Treasury averaged 156-basis points. But outside of a recession, Fed funds cuts averaged 97-basis points and the slide in the 10-year Treasury was just 6-basis points. A recession is key to getting the 10-year Treasury down.”

There is only one data point on today’s economic calendar, but it is a very important one. August nonfarm payrolls were +22k, much lower than expected, the unemployment rate came in at 4.3 percent, as expected, and hourly earnings were +3.7 percent year-over year. After the weak jobs numbers Agency MBS prices are better by about .250 from Thursday’s close, the 2-year is yielding 3.51, and the 10-year is yielding 4.11 after closing yesterday at 4.18 percent.