“All I know is what I read in the papers,” Will Rogers quipped. In news in the papers from our Census Bureau, AI use at large companies is in decline. “A dip in corporate AI adoption isn't a great sign for an industry hellbent on world domination.” I am good at misunderestimating things, but will it go the way of blockchain (which is alive and simmering, but just not on the “front burner”)? This is a weak segue, but speaking of simmering, did you know that ChatGPT consumes an inordinately large amount of the world’s water supply? I wouldn’t say that AI or ChatGPT are fads, but I received this note: “We have experimented with corporate branding, management, mission statements, team building, you name it. None have really worked. The nice thing about markets like this is that they force you to face the fact that there are only a few things that actually work: expense cutting and extremely aggressive sales and marketing. And once you figure that out, you no longer fear markets like this.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with Outamation’s Sapan Bafna on how companies can streamline FHA modification workflows and eliminate compliance risks.)

Services, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers

Mutual of Omaha Mortgage has selected OptiFunder’s Warehouse Management System (WMS) to support its rapid growth and commitment to innovation. The company recognized the need to invest in technology that streamlines post-closing processes while enabling its teams to focus on value-adding work. “Implementing OptiFunder helps us scale more efficiently by removing manual steps in the funding and post-close process,” said Megan Holt, the company’s CFO. “It allows our teams to dedicate more time to serving clients, while giving loan officers the confidence of knowing they have strong operational support behind them.” OptiFunder’s WMS optimizes warehouse allocation and automates funding through paydown. The partnership reflects Mutual of Omaha Mortgage’s core value of innovation. To learn more about streamlining warehouse management, meet with the OptiFunder team at MBA Annual or schedule a demo. Those interested in joining a growing lender with a strong legacy are invited to explore career opportunities with Mutual of Omaha Mortgage.

“Today, Planet’s commitment goes beyond helping people achieve homeownership. We pause to remember the lives lost on September 11, the loved ones left behind, and the heroes who ran toward danger so others could live. We’re not using today to talk about products, programs, or performance. Some days call for something different: reverence, reflection, and a recognition of what truly matters. At Planet, we lead with compassion and act with purpose, not just in moments of crisis, but in every interaction, every decision, and every loan we touch. We will never forget.”

“Newrez Correspondent is excited to connect at upcoming industry events to share program updates and discuss ways to enhance our partnership with you. Please contact us to set up an in-person meeting at one of the following upcoming conferences: Amanda Johnson and Chris Nobile in Newport, RI September 17-19 at the New England Mortgage Bankers Conference; Rebecca Yonaka and Rebecca Sommer in Denver, CO September 21-24 at ACUMA’s Annual Conference; and our entire sales team in Las Vegas, NV October 19-21 at the MBA’s Annual Convention. We recently added an ARM feature to our Jumbo AUS program as well as a Non-Delegated option for those looking to reduce credit risk. In the coming months we’ll be expanding our CES and Smart Series Non-Agency programs by accepting TX 50 (a)(6) loans. Thank you for continuing to work with Newrez Correspondent, your trusted advisor.”

“Total Expert is headed back to ACUMA Annual 2025 to help modern credit unions step up to the big leagues by Prioritizing Lifetime Loyalty and Thinking Beyond Next Quarter. On Monday, 9/22, don’t miss our joint session with Lafayette Federal Credit Union, where industry strategist James White and LFCU’s Ali Nassirian will discuss why credit unions must modernize their mortgage strategies and share realistic advice on how to make it happen. You can also drop by kiosk #43 to test your skills in our wiffle ball toss and learn how Total Expert can take your credit union to the next level. Book some time with our team at the event to discuss your unique challenges and how Total Expert can help you maximize opportunities. We look forward to connecting with you in Denver!”

“What do you get when you mix rooftop views, pineapple rum and 250+ mortgage professionals together in Dallas? You get the hottest reception at Five Star! Join Covius Monday night (9/29) at the Waterproof rooftop lounge at the Statler Hotel as we connect at the Five Star Conference & Expo. Be sure to also schedule a meeting to talk with our Covius team while at the conference to learn more about our solutions that are designed to help lenders and servicers control risk and assure compliance, including default title, loss mitigation, title curative, REO & auction, doc prep and more. RSVP for the Covius reception while there’s still space!”

Your next loan is probably already in your portfolio. With competitive pressures growing and expected rate cuts looming, borrower recapture is now at the forefront of growth strategy in mortgage lending. With refinance, home equity lending and new home purchases expected to rise, it is critical to get your customer recapture roadmap in place. But disconnected systems and poor data integrations can cost you valuable opportunities. By utilizing the data within your portfolio, and combining it with effective marketing automation, lenders can keep borrowers engaged and establish long-term relationships, even as competitors contact them. Read the blog by Matt Dowd, Vice President of Product Management at ICE, on how to build a recapture strategy built on four essential pillars: personalization, automation, speed and seamless digital engagement.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Webinars and Conferences This Week

Every conference has an LTV ratio: the percent of “Lenders to Vendors.” Cutting edge mortgage stats aside, a good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future; and organizers can post their event!

Ready to build your brand without the hassle? Join Orion’s exclusive Ignite Your Brand: Hands-Off Social Media training, where brokers will learn how to effortlessly schedule and publish engaging mortgage-focused social posts using the Star Marketing Studio. Maintain consistent visibility, boost referrals, and stay top of mind, even during your busiest closings. Register now for the session today at 9 AM PT!

Today at 3PM ET will be another episode of The Big Picture. Rich Swerbinsky hosts a variety of guests. You can click here to register for today’s show featuring fan fave Mark McArdle.

Today and tomorrow there’s the Mortgage Bankers Association of Mississippi Fall Conference in Jackson. Check out “Success Through Synergy!”

Tomorrow’s episode of Last Word at 10am PT, hosts Brian Vieaux, Christy Soukhamneut, Courtney Thompson, and Kevin Peranio explore recent shifts in the mortgage market, focusing on the spate of economic news that has hit the market and the latest out of the Agencies.

On Monday the 15th’s episode of Now Next Later at 10am PT, Sasha and Jeremy sit down with John Levonick of Garris Horn.

On September 15, 8:00 AM-12:30 PM, MBA Education is offering a half-day AI training that is tied to the MISMO Fall Summit. This four-hour intensive training provides a clear, practical overview of how Artificial Intelligence (AI) can drive efficiency and innovation in the mortgage industry. Designed for professionals already using AI and who are ready to boost their productivity and decision-making, this course connects AI’s evolution directly to your daily work.

If you’re near New York, check out the annual NYMBA’s convention, 9/15-9/17.

Tuesday the 16th’s episode of MortgagePros411, at 2PM ET, Audrey and Kevin focus on originator’s topics.

Network and collaborate with your industry colleagues while learning the latest updates on mortgage industry standards at MISMO’s Fall Summit 2025, September 15th – 18th in Annapolis, MD. Learn how industry leaders are taking advantage of credit scoring changes. Join featured panelists on Tuesday, September 16th to explore how to take the reins of reform, what these changes mean for the mortgage ecosystem, and how MISMO is shaping the path forward.

The New England Mortgage Bankers Conference (NEMBC) should be on your conference schedule for September 17-19. Here is the link to register.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for Wednesday the 17th at 11AM PT "Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One, next week featuring Steven Paton, CEO of UCLS (Universal Component Lender Services).

Join American Heritage Lending for a live webinar on 9/17 at 1MP ET designed to help brokers and loan officers uncover exciting opportunities in the fast-growing 5–10-unit investment property market. In just 45 minutes, you’ll gain insights into: The size and growth potential of the 5–10-unit market, Proven strategies to find investors and source deals, flexible financing options that outshine traditional bank terms, real-world case studies in a live Q&A session. Click here to register.

The MBA of Florida Loan Officer Summit is on Thursday, September 18, in Jacksonville, FL. This dynamic half-day workshop featuring keynote speakers, engaging panel discussions, lunch, and valuable networking. Walk away with actionable strategies you can put into practice immediately to grow your business.

If borrower experience and automation are on your radar, this is one of those webinars you’ll want on your calendar. Encompass® automation is powerful, but the real impact comes when those workflows extend directly to the borrower experience. Join ICE Mortgage Technology’s Eric Kujala and LenderLogix on Thursday, September 18th at 2PM EST as they show how lenders are streamlining critical processes like fee collection, verifications, and credit ordering. You’ll see how Encompass® workflows can power the POS to deliver a consistent, borrower-friendly experience while giving loan officers greater control and efficiency. Register now to save your seat.

Register for TMBA’s online training on CRA & Fair Lending: What Mortgage Professionals Need to Know, presented by Audrey Fuller, Jason Sheppard, David Taughinbaugh & Jennifer Guzman. This webinar on Thursday, September 18, 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM CDT offers a deep dive into the foundational concepts, regulatory expectations, and practical applications of these two essential frameworks - empowering lenders to build compliant, inclusive, and community-focused operations.

Capital Markets

Are you unlocking every basis point of capital markets profitability? With MCT’s Profitability Calculator, estimate time savings and profit improvements using your loan volume and process inputs to generate a sharable, customized calculation. MCT clients earned an extra $136M last quarter, $505K per lender on average, through strategies like Investor Set Optimization (+12 BPS), Bid Tape AOT (+8 BPS), MCT Marketplace (+3 BPS), Competitive TBA MBS Trading (+2.65 BPS), and Mandatory Loan Sales (+18 BPS). This interactive tool provides a roadmap to identifying missed opportunities, optimizing execution, and boosting profitability across your loan delivery process. Stay ahead with the latest mortgage capital markets insights by subscribing to the MCT newsletter.

Turning to the direction of interest rates, currently, the futures market is pricing in a 88 percent probability of a 25 bps rate cut during the September 17th Federal Open Market Committee meeting, a 70 percent chance of second 25 bps rate cut during the October 29th meeting, and a 65 percent chance of a third 25 bps rate cut during the December 10th meeting.

The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but supply & demand do, and yesterday Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities sold off ahead of the producer price index numbers. It was reported that money managers began “repositioning” in anticipation of the PPI figures. Core-PPI was less than expected leading to a slight rally in prices and a drop in rates. The thinking was, “If CPI comes in weaker than anticipated, the case for a 50 bps rate cut in the September FOMC Meeting will suddenly become a lot stronger.”

Tariff increases, decreases, and uncertainty have been an issue since late January of this year, impacting rates and stocks. The Supreme Court agreed to make an expedited decision in November regarding the legality of the Trump Administration’s Liberation Day tariffs. In theory the Supreme Court doesn’t care about money, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that if the Supreme Court decides the tariffs are illegal, the U.S. Treasury will have no choice but to significantly ramp up auction volumes across all maturities to make up for the lost tariff income. Although it is unlikely that the Supreme Court rules against President Trump’s tariff activities, increasing the Treasury auction sizes will trigger two adverse events. First, interest rates will likely spike due to the oversupply of bonds, despite the Fed rate cuts (similar to what occurred immediately before the 2024 presidential election). In addition, the U.S. debt problem will exacerbate, paving the way for mass uncertainty across all financial markets.

Yesterday's $39 billion 10-year reopening auction offered a litmus test of the demand for Treasuries in the wake of the recent bullish repricing. 10-year rates are down more than 20-basis points month-to-date, but the move certainly isn't without fundamental backing. The auction was notably strong, stopping through by 1.3 basis points at 4.03 percent, well below the six-reopening average of 4.41 percent.

Demand was robust, with a Bid/Cover ratio of 2.65x, slightly above the average of 2.60x, and non-dealer participation reaching an impressive 95.8 percent versus the typical 84.1 percent. Indirect bidders, typically foreign institutions, were especially active, claiming 83.1 percent of the auction compared to a 70.4 percent average, while dealers took a mere 4.2 percent, well below their usual 11.6 percent. Following the strong auction results, yields continued to decline, reinforcing the bullish tone.

Today’s economic calendar brings the key August Consumer Price Index report (+.4 percent for the month, slightly higher than expected, ex-food & energy +.3 percent; +2.9 percent y-o-y) along with jobless claims (263k, higher than expected). CPI was expected to increase 0.3 percent month-over-month and 2.8 percent year-over-year, versus 0.2 percent and 2.7 percent previously.

Later today brings a flurry of Treasury auctions (headlined by $13 billion 20-year bonds, $19 billion reopened 10-year TIPS, and $22 billion reopened 30-year bonds), Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and the August budget deficit. Before the open, the European Central Bank was out with its latest decision, holding rates steady. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices slightly better than Wednesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.48, and the 10-year yielding 4.00 after closing yesterday at 4.03 percent. Lenders everywhere are discussing early payoff penalties and strategies to avoid them.