Wed, Jan 17 2024, 4:53 PM
Bonds Reacting to Data. Is It Justified?
Retail Sales came out at 0.6 vs a median forecast of 0.4 and rates...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 12:32 PM
This week's only major economic report arrived this morning and it wasn't good for bonds. December's retail sales came out at 0.6% versus a median fo...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 11:20 AM
Today I am in San Diego for the SD CAMP event. At the same latitude, a poll was taken by Texas Governor Greg Abbott's office which asked whether peopl...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 8:32 AM
Mortgage application activity continued its strong post-holiday performance during the week ended January 12. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 3:36 PM
The last few weeks have seen mortgage rates move in a far narrower range compared to the month and a half leading up to December 14th. That said, the...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 3:35 PM
Waller Unintentionally Sends Yields Higher
The most hotly anticipated calendar event at the start of this ho...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 11:34 AM
While last week saw a generally narrow range, bonds managed to reverse two weeks of losses with 10yr yields moving down from 4.05 to 3.95. The gains ...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 9:50 AM
“I’m supposed to respect my elders, but now it’s getting harder and harder for me to find one.” Gradually it’s becoming harder and harder to find a ba...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 4:50 PM
The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed's targe...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 4:50 PM
Good Week For Bonds. Next One Could be Interesting
The bond market traded about as well as anyone could have...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 11:01 AM
I received this call yesterday from an LO friend. “Rob, I was talking to my ‘hair-apist’ last night, and I was telling her about how our industry has ...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 10:33 AM
PPI (Producer Price Index) measures inflation at the wholesale level. It is not known or respected as being a reliable or significant market mover, b...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 4:39 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds. Bonds react more to two monthly economic reports than any others. One of these is the jobs report which came out ...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 4:33 PM
What's Up With Wild Reaction to CPI?
For the level of anticipation heading into it, today's CPI release was ...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 12:20 PM
The initial reaction to this morning's CPI data has been mixed with weakness initially and now some resilience. Treasuries are underperforming, partl...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 10:26 AM
Our Federal Reserve doesn’t control events around the world, like a ship being stuck in the Suez Canal, or the current Red Sea geopolitical aggression...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:42 PM
The first thing to understand about mortgage rates over the past 3-4 weeks is that they haven't been moving nearly as quickly as the preceding months....
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:41 PM
At Least We Won't Be Waiting For CPI Anymore
The present week has been a bit boring, for lack of a gentler t...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 12:34 PM
Last Friday's data (jobs report and ISM) marked the last significant calendar event until this week's CPI, due out tomorrow at 8:30am ET. The interve...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 10:51 AM
I’m so tired of the mainstream press talking about the 2024 election, 10 months out. Given that the median age of U.S. citizens is about 38 years, one...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 8:36 AM
Mortgage activity rose significantly during the week ended January 5, but it faced a pretty low bar. Loan application numbers were adjusted to account...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:36 PM
While the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate is still more than 1% below the long-term highs seen in October, it has been rising slowly and steadily in ...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:28 PM
Even Narrower Sideways Grind; No Reaction to Auction
Friday's trading session set a reasonably wide range re...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 11:12 AM
An uneventful overnight session has given way to roughly unchanged levels at the start of another day without CPI. The first 3 days of this week are ...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 8:37 AM
Is it just my imagination or do restaurants no longer have salt and pepper shakers on the tables after COVID? Is it just my imagination or do organiza...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:16 PM
Range Finding Ahead of Auctions and CPI
The start of the new week saw bonds start at unchanged levels, rally...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:04 PM
Last week saw several key economic events attempt to exert some influence on interest rate momentum without any obvious winner. Rates ended the week ...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 1:33 PM
Even as consumer sentiment about housing remained generally pessimistic, a change in perceptions about the future of mortgage interest rates did a lot...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 12:19 PM
Bonds ended the previous week at the highest yields since before the December Fed announcement. The story behind the that story is that yields were r...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 10:38 AM
California is home to approximately 39 million residents, which is about one-eighth of the U.S. population, more than the entire population of Canada,...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 5:19 PM
The big jobs report on the first Friday of any given month can be big business for interest rate volatility. Today's example was no exception, but le...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 5:17 PM
ISM Outshines NFP, But Neither Ended Up Leaving a Mark
It has happened before, but it's not common: those Fr...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 12:35 PM
Friday is off to a mixed start with the jobs report doing some damage and the ISM Services data undoing that damage. Things are pretty much that simp...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 10:43 AM
Now is about the time when you stop saying “Happy New Year,” either because it is no longer relevant, or you’ve forgotten who you’ve said it to. Lende...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:30 PM
Lots at Stake With Friday's Jobs Report
Thursday's trading session provided an unpleasant but worthwhile rem...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:25 PM
Wednesday saw mortgage rates recover toward the lower recent levels in response to economic data that wasn't as upbeat as recent examples. That's imp...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 12:14 PM
Wednesday's data was helpful for the bond market--even if only modestly. Today's is the opposite. The weakness began in Europe with a swath of PMI r...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 11:00 AM
“My dad always said to me, ‘Work until your bank account looks like a phone number’ so I did. Account balance: $9.11.” You can work harder, or you can...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 5:21 PM
Proof of Data Dependent Concept
The first two days of the new year were shaping up to paint an unpleasant pi...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 4:08 PM
As of this morning, it looked like the theme for mortgage rates in 2024 would be up, up, and away--at least as far as the first two business days were...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 11:47 AM
As long ago as December 14th, we've had our eye on today's 10am economic data as the next reasonably important moment for the bond market. There simp...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 11:03 AM
“Affordable” means many things. There are residential lending industry jokes about making a loan on anything with axles or a license plate. (Like “don...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 9:01 AM
Mortgage activity took the usual hit over the last two weeks as the country celebrated a variety of religious and secular holidays. The Mortgage Broke...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates kicked off the new year by jumping to the highest levels since December 13th. That's not too remarkable considering rates were also at...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Bond Selling Suggests Caution, But We're Still Data Dependent
The bond market started off the new year with ...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 12:18 PM
Hindsight is frequently 20/20 when discussing recent market movement and this morning's weakness is an example that's worth considering. Heading into...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 10:28 AM
Our Federal Reserve doesn’t control events around the world, like a ship being stuck in the Suez Canal, or the current Red Sea geopolitical aggression...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:32 PM
Uneventful End to an Eventful Year
2023 may be a year that we won't soon forget, but the past two weeks have...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:10 PM
Looking back at October when 30yr fixed mortgage rates were over 8%, a return to the roughly unchanged levels by the end of the year may have seemed l...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 11:35 AM
“What do you call a gal who’s had too much to drink? A cab.” Of course, anyone who’s been drinking should stay away from California’s 40-foot waves. D...
