Thu, Aug 30 2018, 8:52 AM
Remember the flat, boring range between 2.8 and 2.9? Or perhaps you prefer the slightly stricter version between 2.82 and 2.88? That's the range that...
Wed, Aug 29 2018, 6:08 PM
Today ended up being the most uneventful day of the week in terms of outright volatility. In other words, bonds didn't cover as much ground as they d...
Wed, Aug 29 2018, 5:16 PM
Mortgage rates were just slightly higher again today, keeping them in line with the highest levels in about 3 weeks. The same caveat applies: we're ta...
Wed, Aug 29 2018, 8:45 AM
GDP is released 3 times over 3 months beginning on the month that follows the quarter in question. In other words, Q2 (April-June) is first reported ...
Tue, Aug 28 2018, 5:23 PM
Yesterday's bond market weakness introduced some risk of a technical shift back toward higher yields. Specifically, fast and slow stochastics (shor...
Tue, Aug 28 2018, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates rose again today--this time more noticeably than yesterday--bringing them to the highest levels in more than 2 weeks. For most, however...
Tue, Aug 28 2018, 9:54 AM
Late June through late July saw 10yr yields trade in the 'same old range' with lows centered on 2.81 and highs on 2.89. That range was broken at the ...
Mon, Aug 27 2018, 5:41 PM
It was a straightforward trading day today. Overnight weakness came courtesy of stronger econ data in Germany and the resulting sell-off in Europea...
Mon, Aug 27 2018, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher for some lenders and lower for others, depending on how that particular lender adjusted their rate sheets on Friday aftern...
Mon, Aug 27 2018, 9:20 AM
Even though quite a few kids are going back to school today, there's still one week of Summer remaining for the bond market. Labor Day (this upcoming...
Fri, Aug 24 2018, 8:25 PM
If you knew what to look for, today's comments from Fed Chair Powell erred on the side of dovishness--that is, they were rate-friendly. They were als...
Fri, Aug 24 2018, 7:17 PM
Mortgage rates began the day slightly higher . In fact, for several lenders, it was the biggest day-over-day move higher in more than 2 weeks. The key...
Fri, Aug 24 2018, 9:30 AM
Dear Kansas City Fed,
Thank you for hosting another year of the storied Jackson Hole Symposium. I'm not here to vent about the fact that you cou...
Thu, Aug 23 2018, 5:30 PM
Not since the eerie holiday-inspired silence of December 22nd 2017 have bonds put in as narrow of a trading day as they did today. 10yr yields didn't...
Thu, Aug 23 2018, 4:55 PM
Mortgage rates have been more or less unchanged since August 10th . That's an impressively boring streak even by summertime standards. Why does summer...
Thu, Aug 23 2018, 9:09 AM
Is today the day we break the "key technical level" at 2.82? Spoiler alert: you shouldn't care and it doesn't matter . I'm sorry if this is disillus...
Wed, Aug 22 2018, 4:07 PM
Today's gains are primarily a factor of the bond market's response to yesterday's Cohen headlines (plea deal regarding campaign finance violations)....
Wed, Aug 22 2018, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates haven't really moved for 9 straight business days. Some lenders have seen microscopic improvements during that time, but the average le...
Wed, Aug 22 2018, 9:25 AM
News regarding Cohen's plea deal came out right as futures markets were closing yesterday. There were only 15-20 minutes for a reaction, and we wou...
Tue, Aug 21 2018, 4:47 PM
The S&P 500 hit a record intraday high today (just over 2873.22 compared to the previous high of 2872.87). In other words, it wasn't a triumphant s...
Tue, Aug 21 2018, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged again today although several lenders were in just slightly better territory. That makes this the 8th straight ...
Tue, Aug 21 2018, 8:56 AM
With yields touching the lowest levels in more than a month yesterday, there are two distinct cases to be made for the path ahead. In the more pessi...
Mon, Aug 20 2018, 5:31 PM
When it comes to financial markets, the definition for "jawboning" is a bit looser than normal as it also encompasses market movement that occurs simp...
Mon, Aug 20 2018, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates were almost perfectly unchanged again today, meaning they haven't really changed in more than a week. All this despite a rather noticea...
Mon, Aug 20 2018, 9:12 AM
The frustrating thing about weeks that are normally vacation-heavy is that the resulting lack of volume and liquidity can leave bonds in a position to...
Fri, Aug 17 2018, 5:30 PM
10yr yields ended the week at almost exactly where they began. With the exception of Tuesday, bonds closed within 1.5bps of each other on the other 4...
Fri, Aug 17 2018, 4:29 PM
Mortgage rates were almost perfectly unchanged today. That leaves them right in line with last Friday's levels. I devoted a considerable number of wor...
Fri, Aug 17 2018, 10:22 AM
It may end up being a slow, summertime Friday with the news cycle calming down relative to earlier in the week, not to mention the fact that its peak ...
Thu, Aug 16 2018, 5:13 PM
Treasuries were weaker at the start of the overnight session as renewed US/China trade negotiations propelled global equities markets higher. The h...
Thu, Aug 16 2018, 3:31 PM
Be careful what you read--or perhaps, who you trust--about mortgage rates today. There's a lot of misinformation out there. Don't be mad. No one is ou...
Thu, Aug 16 2018, 10:34 AM
I found myself driving in the truck for more than an hour yesterday evening--long enough to hear the news cycle repeated several times. During that t...
Wed, Aug 15 2018, 4:01 PM
Headlines continue overstating the connection between US market movements and the financial drama in Turkey. Today was especially damaging to the cas...
Wed, Aug 15 2018, 1:29 PM
Mortgage rates fell only modestly today despite a much stronger move in broader bond markets. I spend a lot of time espousing the fact that rates are ...
Wed, Aug 15 2018, 9:45 AM
From New York, traders have been looking east for at least some level of inspiration from Turkish market volatility. As we've discussed exhaustively,...
Tue, Aug 14 2018, 4:30 PM
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory as Turkish tensions eased overnight. That certainly wasn't the only game in town as far as market ...
Tue, Aug 14 2018, 3:04 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. With the exception of the past two days, this leaves us at the best le...
Tue, Aug 14 2018, 9:24 AM
Turkish Lira bounced in the overnight session--not in any epic fashion, but enough to result in a bit of spillover for stocks/bonds. 10yr yields rose...
Mon, Aug 13 2018, 5:29 PM
Another day, another chance for market watchers and pundits of all types to make mountains out of Turkish molehills. Yes, the financial crisis in Tur...
Mon, Aug 13 2018, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates stayed steady at the lowest levels in more than 3 weeks as financial markets are still accounting for additional risks relating to Turk...
Mon, Aug 13 2018, 9:34 AM
Did anyone else have to sit through the drug addiction video (or was it a book?) in grade school (or was it middle school?) where the main character k...
Fri, Aug 10 2018, 5:25 PM
Tired of hearing about Turkey yet? This is what happens when fairly quiet markets are interrupted by a thunderous roar from an unexpected place. News...
Fri, Aug 10 2018, 4:47 PM
Mortgage rates , and indeed most interest rates, are tied to movement in the bond market. In turn, bonds tend to benefit when big, scary stuff is shak...
Fri, Aug 10 2018, 10:08 AM
Turkey (the country, not the lunch meat) is the 17th biggest economy in the world in terms of GDP. That's roughly 20% bigger than the next closest co...
Thu, Aug 9 2018, 4:40 PM
Have you heard the one about the Turkish debt crisis? Things are pretty bad for Turkey and the currency is indeed in freefall, but until the charts d...
Thu, Aug 9 2018, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates finally did what they were supposed to do today. Specifically, they fell in response to bond market improvement. That's the way it shou...
Thu, Aug 9 2018, 9:42 AM
In the short-term (past few weeks), the trend has not been our friend. After breaking above a narrow, sideways range, yields had been pushing higher ...
Wed, Aug 8 2018, 6:09 PM
This week continued in the fine tradition of of ultra-light summertime volume and liquidity, but today's contribution was a bit more worthwhile than t...
Wed, Aug 8 2018, 4:57 PM
Mortgage rates were modestly higher today. Much like yesterday, there's a catch! Yesterday's catch was that underlying bond markets had weakened enoug...
Wed, Aug 8 2018, 9:50 AM
After spending most of July in a narrow, sideways trend, bonds broke higher in yield and looked like they would begin a classic range-breakout sell-of...
Tue, Aug 7 2018, 3:54 PM
Bonds enjoyed a nice little winning streak beginning last Thursday. As of yesterday, it had carried 10yr Treasury yields below the important 2.95% te...
