Fri, Jan 11 2019, 7:12 PM
Core CPI came in at 2.2% today. Back in 2016, this was cause for concern, but now bond markets trade like inflation isn't even a remote concern. What...
Fri, Jan 11 2019, 6:11 PM
Mortgage rates improved today, breaking a 3-day streak with effectively no change. This gets us part of the way back down to the long-term lows achiev...
Fri, Jan 11 2019, 10:11 AM
Today's Consumer Price Index was one of the week's only " important " pieces of economic data. Or perhaps we should say it was one of the week's only...
Thu, Jan 10 2019, 5:28 PM
It's hard to fault the bond market for any trading over the past several days. The data and the movement in other markets have both suggested bond ma...
Thu, Jan 10 2019, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged again today, despite moderate weakness in underlying bond markets. Bonds are the primary ingredient used in determining ...
Thu, Jan 10 2019, 10:15 AM
The massive stock selling in Q3 2018 was clearly a big deal for bonds. As soon as the first wave of selling hit in stocks, bonds engaged what we refe...
Wed, Jan 9 2019, 6:55 PM
The notion of "hope" comes up quite a bit in my daily recap pieces--often because something bad is happening and we hope for it to end or because some...
Wed, Jan 9 2019, 6:29 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, after moving higher for the past 3 days. Underlying market movement was slightly calmer than it has been in recent d...
Wed, Jan 9 2019, 9:26 AM
While there are no significant scheduled events in play this morning, the afternoon hours bring the 10yr Treasury auction and the " minutes " from t...
Tue, Jan 8 2019, 4:36 PM
For several weeks heading into the December Fed announcement, we discussed the impressive Nov/Dec bond market rally and the fact that the Fed would li...
Tue, Jan 8 2019, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates rose moderately for the 3rd day in a row today, bringing them to the highest levels since December 31st for the average lender. In outr...
Tue, Jan 8 2019, 9:28 AM
In some nearby parallel dimension, the letter "f" is option in today's title. We'll have to remember this little trick the next time bonds bounce so ...
Mon, Jan 7 2019, 5:32 PM
Bonds had a chance to make the big potential correction of early 2019 a 1-day affair. That would refer, of course, to last Friday's bond market wea...
Mon, Jan 7 2019, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates were higher again today, extending a 2-day move from the lowest levels since early 2018. The size and pace of the late 2018 improvement...
Mon, Jan 7 2019, 9:52 AM
Will rates be able to remain in the comparatively great territory they entered last week, or does Friday's post-NFP sell-off mean we should be fear...
Fri, Jan 4 2019, 5:16 PM
Yesterday's recap headline spoke of bonds being on fire in a good way. Apparently word got out . Several party poopers arrived with buckets of wate...
Fri, Jan 4 2019, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates hit the lowest levels in nearly a year as of yesterday afternoon. In general, they've had a one track mind for the better part of two m...
Fri, Jan 4 2019, 9:19 AM
It's no secret that the bond market has been on a tear for more than a month. 10yr Treasury yields dropped more than 30 basis points (0.30%) in Decem...
Thu, Jan 3 2019, 5:08 PM
Bonds hit their best levels in nearly a year today, depending on the security in question. MBS are lagging behind Treasuries for reasons discussed in...
Thu, Jan 3 2019, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates have been plummeting , depending on your definition of the word. To be sure, the past 2 months have no competition in nearly 3 years. T...
Thu, Jan 3 2019, 9:53 AM
Bonds started the new year off on a strong note yesterday, rallying to the best levels since ____. That blank would be filled in with a distinctly di...
Wed, Jan 2 2019, 5:55 PM
Monday's half-day brought 2018 to a strongly positive conclusion for bonds. Today's full session picked up where Monday left off and then some . ...
Wed, Jan 2 2019, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates didn't have much to celebrate in 2018--at least not until the last few months. But those last few months were quite nice! Despite uncer...
Wed, Jan 2 2019, 8:31 AM
Overnight market movement was kind to the US bond market, keeping some hope alive for a continuation of recent strength. Rather than an epic rebound ...
Mon, Dec 31 2018, 2:05 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today--this time in a slightly more noticeable way. More than anything, this was a reflection of last Friday's market...
Mon, Dec 31 2018, 9:40 AM
This week promises a slow start due to the early close today and full closure tomorrow, but a strong finish due to Friday's NFP and the simple fact ...
Fri, Dec 28 2018, 4:55 PM
Bonds have had their good eye on stocks for months now. Almost any instance of exceptional bond market strength has come courtesy of exceptional ...
Fri, Dec 28 2018, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower by an almost imperceptible amount today. The improvement was enough to bring the average lender to the lowest levels since ...
Fri, Dec 28 2018, 9:17 AM
As we discuss off and on over the years, the relationship between stocks and bonds is always complicated. At times, it seems as if bond yields and st...
Thu, Dec 27 2018, 5:16 PM
Is this the "big one" or isn't it?! That's what everyone with a vested interested in the stock market would like to know about the ongoing sell-off t...
Thu, Dec 27 2018, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly lower today, which is a major victory considering how yesterday left off. Specifically, bond markets had wea...
Thu, Dec 27 2018, 9:10 AM
Last Wednesday was Fed day and it marked a technical breakout for bond yields. As far back as June 2018, 10yr yields had been bouncing on a floor of ...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 4:47 PM
Bonds had a rotten day, primarily because stocks had an amazing day (although the terrible 5yr Treasury auction didn't help). In turn, stocks prima...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged in some cases today and higher in others. The discrepancy is a result of the timing of today's market movements. The mos...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 10:04 AM
The title of the Day Ahead commentary on Monday was "Don't Get Too Attached." In a nutshell, the suggestion was to not get too attached to any decisi...
Mon, Dec 24 2018, 12:43 PM
Mortgage rates did nothing interesting today, as is typical for the days before and after a major holiday. Tangentially related and significantly more...
Mon, Dec 24 2018, 9:31 AM
The week and a half surrounding Christmas and New Years Day tends to play by its own random rules. Sometimes it fits in with the prevailing trend (in...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 4:35 PM
After quite a bit of stock/bond correlation in the run up to the Fed announcement (and in the few hours that followed), the two sides of the market ...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly higher yet again today. This reinforces our sense from yesterday that rates may have already found their post-F...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 8:35 AM
One of the biggest surprises I encountered as I've learned about bond markets (and financial markets in general) over the years is just how big a ro...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 5:23 PM
Stocks and bonds haven't necessarily been joined at the hip for every moment of every day recently, but there's been enough correlation to make today'...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly higher today. As such, they remain quite close to their lowest levels in roughly 4 months--a distinction achiev...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 9:03 AM
When bonds have been in a relatively strong trend for better or worse heading into the 3rd week of December, we tend to see a consolidation or a conti...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 4:58 PM
The Fed had a chance to soothe the stock market today by doing "something dovish" with respect to monetary policy or even forward guidance. "Someth...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates fell today even though the Fed "raised rates." What's up with that? There are all kinds of rates. Some are fixed. Some are adjustable. ...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen ...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 9:09 AM
What is the sound that doves make? I know they can cry, according to Prince, but "to cry or not to cry" would have been a weird headline title. I'm ...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 4:59 PM
We're typically talking about "the bond market in terms of 10yr Treasury yields," but in terms of PRICES , there was certainly some gravity in play c...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 4:01 PM
Mortgage rates fell today as lenders got caught up with the friendly move in the bond market that we noted yesterday. Incidentally, today's bond marke...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 9:58 AM
Fed day tomorrow! We'll finally get to see what's what with respect to recent speculation and a factual shift in tone from several Fed members (inclu...
