Tue, Jun 19 2018, 4:15 PM
June began with yields plateauing after rising from the Italy-inspired lows of late May. 10yr yields managed to avoid breaking above 3% until last we...
Tue, Jun 19 2018, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, despite a somewhat decent improvement in bond markets. Overnight, trade war brinksmanship between the US and Ch...
Tue, Jun 19 2018, 8:57 AM
You're welcome! I knew if I lamented the slow and boring nature of the week ahead yesterday that I could trick the bond market into doing something ...
Mon, Jun 18 2018, 4:30 PM
These sorts of days (where nothing happens) happen. If you had to bet on a day of the week and a time of year to see them, Summertime Mondays would p...
Mon, Jun 18 2018, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. The underlying bond market (which dictates rates) was exceptionally qu...
Mon, Jun 18 2018, 9:16 AM
Post-Italian drama, bond yields rose for 2 straight weeks heading into last week's Fed and ECB announcements. They both proved friendly and the pos...
Fri, Jun 15 2018, 5:35 PM
Fresh fears of trade wars pushed stocks and bond yields lower in the overnight session as the White House promised another wave of tariff announcemen...
Fri, Jun 15 2018, 5:22 PM
Mortgage rates fell again today, bringing the average rate just slightly lower on the week. Unlike the past 2 days, there were no big ticket calendar ...
Fri, Jun 15 2018, 9:37 AM
Bond markets have their rally caps on after making it through both central bank announcements this week without suffering any crazy damage. In fact...
Thu, Jun 14 2018, 4:15 PM
We knew the ECB (European Central Bank) was going to have to address its bond buying program soon, because it expires after September. Several speake...
Thu, Jun 14 2018, 3:22 PM
Mortgage rates moved LOWER today, following a policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB). That claim runs counter to almost any other mo...
Thu, Jun 14 2018, 9:00 AM
Today's domestic session begins with a positive reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The ECB broke from tradition by dropping ...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 5:52 PM
In one sentence, today's Fed rate forecasts pushed bonds into weaker territory at 2pm and Jerome Powell's press conference helped to recover most of...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today, following the Fed's much-anticipated policy announcement. Although the Fed changed quite a few words from the annou...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 2:05 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that ...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 9:09 AM
"The dots" refer to the Fed's periodically updated economic projections.
"Periodically, " in this case, means 4 times a year out of the 8 annual ...
Tue, Jun 12 2018, 5:11 PM
Today turned out to be a dud, thanks to a completely uneventful CPI reading as well as a right-down-the-middle 30yr bond auction. Neither of these ...
Tue, Jun 12 2018, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today. That keeps them in line with some of the highest levels in nearly 7 years, though the same could be said for a ...
Tue, Jun 12 2018, 9:46 AM
Bonds are starting the day in a slightly weaker stance yet again. While we managed to come back from a weaker start yesterday, it's worth checking in...
Mon, Jun 11 2018, 4:17 PM
History suggests that Fed/ECB meetings in June are more than up to the task of causing significant volatility in bond markets. It also suggests tha...
Mon, Jun 11 2018, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates edged up to the highest levels in several weeks today. Only a handful of days from mid-May stand between current levels and the highest...
Mon, Jun 11 2018, 9:22 AM
Bond markets have weathered the storm of Italian political drama, which created the bulk of volatility over the past 3 weeks. They've considered the ...
Fri, Jun 8 2018, 4:56 PM
What a quiet and boring trading session it was! Well, to be fair, there's still half an hour left as I type this, but most bond market participants m...
Fri, Jun 8 2018, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates were steady again today, holding on to the improvements seen yesterday afternoon following a surprise "flash rally" in bond markets. Su...
Fri, Jun 8 2018, 9:06 AM
The day is young, but the fact that we're starting out with much of yesterday's "flash" rally intact means that new doors are opening for bonds.
...
Thu, Jun 7 2018, 5:01 PM
Today ended up being all about the early afternoon "flash crash" in bond yields (from 2.94 to 2.884% in fairly short order). While they're not common...
Thu, Jun 7 2018, 4:24 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, depending on the lender and the time of day. Rates were higher earlier this morning as bond market...
Thu, Jun 7 2018, 9:34 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before. Here's a formula for one of the ways bond markets move: Rates fall based on a particular risky eventuality. ...
Wed, Jun 6 2018, 5:32 PM
Bonds were weaker right from the start today as the overnight session saw several members of the European Central Bank comment on tapering prospects...
Wed, Jun 6 2018, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates rose today, resuming an upward trend that began last week after political turmoil in Italy began to die down. More simply put, rates ha...
Wed, Jun 6 2018, 9:53 AM
I owe you an apology. I caused a bit of a sell-off in bond markets today. It all started yesterday afternoon when I called attention to the fact tha...
Tue, Jun 5 2018, 5:23 PM
With European drama subsiding heading into this week and with yesterday seeing a logical move toward weaker levels, it was fair to be worried about mo...
Tue, Jun 5 2018, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates were little-changed today after rising somewhat quickly over the past 4 business days. This leaves them right on the top dead center of...
Tue, Jun 5 2018, 9:49 AM
The most notable feature of the current trading week continues to be its lack of notable features . There isn't much data on tap (ISM Non-Manufactur...
Mon, Jun 4 2018, 5:29 PM
MBS Live folks don't need to be reminded that red is not our favorite color. It connotes bond market losses on the MBS Live dashboard (and losses...
Mon, Jun 4 2018, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher , adding onto a trend that began last Wednesday. A day earlier, rates hit their best levels in more than a month due t...
Mon, Jun 4 2018, 10:08 AM
Where were you 3 weeks ago when we were just beginning to discuss Italian political risks? I don't remember where I was, but I definitely know where ...
Fri, Jun 1 2018, 9:29 PM
The beginning of this holiday-shortened week was fairly exciting. It was the first major "opening gap" (yields/prices opening a day well into territo...
Fri, Jun 1 2018, 8:28 PM
Mortgage rates move higher today, mostly due to waning political risks in Italy. To be honest, I only really put the jobs data in the headline because...
Fri, Jun 1 2018, 8:26 AM
The timing and nature of yesterday's Italian headlines created a fair amount of risk for bond markets today. As we discussed yesterday (in the Hudd...
Thu, May 31 2018, 5:08 PM
Today brought resolution (probably) for a problem that had been greatly benefiting bonds and rates. Earlier this week, the prospect of snap electio...
Thu, May 31 2018, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates were effectively unchanged today, despite political developments in Italy providing plenty of justification to move higher. Specificall...
Thu, May 31 2018, 9:09 AM
Even after yesterday's weakness, bond markets remained in much stronger territory on the week due to the size of Tuesday's move. This is a fairly typ...
Wed, May 30 2018, 6:09 PM
Back in 2011/2012, EU-related fears had more to do with certain countries being unable to pay their debt and/or general systemic risk relating to Gr...
Wed, May 30 2018, 5:36 PM
Mortgage rates were somewhat higher today as politicians struck a more conciliatory tone in Italy. To be clear, we are indeed talking about mortgage r...
Wed, May 30 2018, 8:44 AM
Today begins with yesterday's Italy-inspired mega rally under heavy fire. Compared to last Friday's closing levels, roughly half of the overall gains...
Tue, May 29 2018, 3:37 PM
Mortgage rates dropped abruptly today as political developments in Italy caused investor panic over the weekend. This is a bit of a complex topic, but...
Tue, May 29 2018, 9:01 AM
Let's use US politics and Congress to help us understand Italian politics. Imagine that Libertarians and Independents actually won enough seats to co...
Fri, May 25 2018, 5:22 PM
When you pay the sort of price we paid last week (in terms of rates surging to 7-year highs), you expect to get something reasonably nice in return....
Fri, May 25 2018, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved much lower this week with another strong move today. As we discussed yesterday, this is certainly at odds with the prevailing new...
