Wed, Jun 13 2018, 2:05 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that ...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 9:09 AM
"The dots" refer to the Fed's periodically updated economic projections.
"Periodically, " in this case, means 4 times a year out of the 8 annual ...
Tue, Jun 12 2018, 5:11 PM
Today turned out to be a dud, thanks to a completely uneventful CPI reading as well as a right-down-the-middle 30yr bond auction. Neither of these ...
Tue, Jun 12 2018, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today. That keeps them in line with some of the highest levels in nearly 7 years, though the same could be said for a ...
Tue, Jun 12 2018, 9:46 AM
Bonds are starting the day in a slightly weaker stance yet again. While we managed to come back from a weaker start yesterday, it's worth checking in...
Mon, Jun 11 2018, 4:17 PM
History suggests that Fed/ECB meetings in June are more than up to the task of causing significant volatility in bond markets. It also suggests tha...
Mon, Jun 11 2018, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates edged up to the highest levels in several weeks today. Only a handful of days from mid-May stand between current levels and the highest...
Mon, Jun 11 2018, 9:22 AM
Bond markets have weathered the storm of Italian political drama, which created the bulk of volatility over the past 3 weeks. They've considered the ...
Fri, Jun 8 2018, 4:56 PM
What a quiet and boring trading session it was! Well, to be fair, there's still half an hour left as I type this, but most bond market participants m...
Fri, Jun 8 2018, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates were steady again today, holding on to the improvements seen yesterday afternoon following a surprise "flash rally" in bond markets. Su...
Fri, Jun 8 2018, 9:06 AM
The day is young, but the fact that we're starting out with much of yesterday's "flash" rally intact means that new doors are opening for bonds.
...
Thu, Jun 7 2018, 5:01 PM
Today ended up being all about the early afternoon "flash crash" in bond yields (from 2.94 to 2.884% in fairly short order). While they're not common...
Thu, Jun 7 2018, 4:24 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, depending on the lender and the time of day. Rates were higher earlier this morning as bond market...
Thu, Jun 7 2018, 9:34 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before. Here's a formula for one of the ways bond markets move: Rates fall based on a particular risky eventuality. ...
Wed, Jun 6 2018, 5:32 PM
Bonds were weaker right from the start today as the overnight session saw several members of the European Central Bank comment on tapering prospects...
Wed, Jun 6 2018, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates rose today, resuming an upward trend that began last week after political turmoil in Italy began to die down. More simply put, rates ha...
Wed, Jun 6 2018, 9:53 AM
I owe you an apology. I caused a bit of a sell-off in bond markets today. It all started yesterday afternoon when I called attention to the fact tha...
Tue, Jun 5 2018, 5:23 PM
With European drama subsiding heading into this week and with yesterday seeing a logical move toward weaker levels, it was fair to be worried about mo...
Tue, Jun 5 2018, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates were little-changed today after rising somewhat quickly over the past 4 business days. This leaves them right on the top dead center of...
Tue, Jun 5 2018, 9:49 AM
The most notable feature of the current trading week continues to be its lack of notable features . There isn't much data on tap (ISM Non-Manufactur...
Mon, Jun 4 2018, 5:29 PM
MBS Live folks don't need to be reminded that red is not our favorite color. It connotes bond market losses on the MBS Live dashboard (and losses...
Mon, Jun 4 2018, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher , adding onto a trend that began last Wednesday. A day earlier, rates hit their best levels in more than a month due t...
Mon, Jun 4 2018, 10:08 AM
Where were you 3 weeks ago when we were just beginning to discuss Italian political risks? I don't remember where I was, but I definitely know where ...
Fri, Jun 1 2018, 9:29 PM
The beginning of this holiday-shortened week was fairly exciting. It was the first major "opening gap" (yields/prices opening a day well into territo...
Fri, Jun 1 2018, 8:28 PM
Mortgage rates move higher today, mostly due to waning political risks in Italy. To be honest, I only really put the jobs data in the headline because...
Fri, Jun 1 2018, 8:26 AM
The timing and nature of yesterday's Italian headlines created a fair amount of risk for bond markets today. As we discussed yesterday (in the Hudd...
Thu, May 31 2018, 5:08 PM
Today brought resolution (probably) for a problem that had been greatly benefiting bonds and rates. Earlier this week, the prospect of snap electio...
Thu, May 31 2018, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates were effectively unchanged today, despite political developments in Italy providing plenty of justification to move higher. Specificall...
Thu, May 31 2018, 9:09 AM
Even after yesterday's weakness, bond markets remained in much stronger territory on the week due to the size of Tuesday's move. This is a fairly typ...
Wed, May 30 2018, 6:09 PM
Back in 2011/2012, EU-related fears had more to do with certain countries being unable to pay their debt and/or general systemic risk relating to Gr...
Wed, May 30 2018, 5:36 PM
Mortgage rates were somewhat higher today as politicians struck a more conciliatory tone in Italy. To be clear, we are indeed talking about mortgage r...
Wed, May 30 2018, 8:44 AM
Today begins with yesterday's Italy-inspired mega rally under heavy fire. Compared to last Friday's closing levels, roughly half of the overall gains...
Tue, May 29 2018, 3:37 PM
Mortgage rates dropped abruptly today as political developments in Italy caused investor panic over the weekend. This is a bit of a complex topic, but...
Tue, May 29 2018, 9:01 AM
Let's use US politics and Congress to help us understand Italian politics. Imagine that Libertarians and Independents actually won enough seats to co...
Fri, May 25 2018, 5:22 PM
When you pay the sort of price we paid last week (in terms of rates surging to 7-year highs), you expect to get something reasonably nice in return....
Fri, May 25 2018, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved much lower this week with another strong move today. As we discussed yesterday, this is certainly at odds with the prevailing new...
Fri, May 25 2018, 9:33 AM
If you'd just had your worst week in 7 years, it's always nice if the next could be markedly different. That's the case for bond markets this week, a...
Thu, May 24 2018, 4:29 PM
Yesterday was an important one for anyone hoping NOT to see the bond market completely give up hope in the fight against higher rates. To be fair, ...
Thu, May 24 2018, 3:14 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today, bringing them to the best levels in at least 2 weeks. This assertion is very much at odds with the prevailing ...
Thu, May 24 2018, 9:35 AM
One short week after hitting the worst levels in nearly 7 years there's suddenly a semblance of hope again for bonds. It was one thing to see last ...
Wed, May 23 2018, 4:41 PM
Bonds surged to significantly stronger levels in the presence of the Fed Minutes today. Any time we see strong gains on a day with a Fed release, c...
Wed, May 23 2018, 3:36 PM
This week hadn't been too traumatic for mortgage rates through yesterday afternoon, but neither had it been positive in any noticeable way. That chang...
Wed, May 23 2018, 9:05 AM
I woke up this morning to an automated alert from MBS Live letting me know I'd need to hustle to the desk and explain whatever it was that caused the ...
Tue, May 22 2018, 4:52 PM
For the 2nd straight day , trading levels in bond markets held inside a narrow range--far narrower than that seen on any given day last week, let alo...
Tue, May 22 2018, 3:09 PM
After quite a bit of volatility and a move up to 7-year highs last week, mortgage rates have managed to avoid any semblance of drama so far this week....
Tue, May 22 2018, 9:21 AM
Today begins the 3rd day where US Treasuries aren't imploding after hitting 7 year highs last Thursday. At this point, we might consider the resilien...
Mon, May 21 2018, 4:56 PM
There were no significant economic reports or events today, and only a few newsworthy developments. The biggest of these also happened the earliest (...
Mon, May 21 2018, 3:38 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, which is better than what could be said for most of last week when rates shot up to the highest levels in 7 years. F...
Mon, May 21 2018, 9:54 AM
Much like last week, this week's event calendar is limited in terms of top tier data and events, but nonetheless carries the potential for technical m...
Fri, May 18 2018, 4:43 PM
Bonds rallied today for the first time all week, and fairly well at that! 10yr yields fell more than 5bps and Fannie 3.5 MBS rose nearly 3/8ths of ...
