Fri, Nov 9 2018, 6:26 PM
Interesting day today... It began with a decent overnight rally, mostly led by European bond markets. The first big speed-bump came at 8:30am with ...
Fri, Nov 9 2018, 5:45 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. Most lenders began the day in slightly worse shape compared to yesterday. Bond markets impro...
Fri, Nov 9 2018, 9:20 AM
Between the mid-term elections earlier this week and the simple tradeflow move following the Fed yesterday, bond markets have had their chance to make...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 5:02 PM
It's hard not to give the Fed a wide berth as the biggest potential market mover on any given Fed day. Today was a Fed day! We talked about the ou...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 4:36 PM
Mortgage rates moved back up today, leaving them right in line with the highest levels of the week. These also happen to be the highest levels since e...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 2:13 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen an...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 9:11 AM
I'm going to talk about the potential for a friendly bounce in bonds today. I want to be clear right up front that I'm presenting this as one of two ...
Wed, Nov 7 2018, 5:05 PM
Those who expected the election to matter to bond markets got their way overnight. Those who expected elections to be inconsequential got their way...
Wed, Nov 7 2018, 4:52 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly lower today. Unfortunately, that may not be the case by tomorrow morning. Underlying bond markets (which dictate rates) l...
Wed, Nov 7 2018, 9:05 AM
Whether you thought the election would or would not matter for the bond market, you were right! At times, it mattered quite a bit in the overnight ...
Tue, Nov 6 2018, 5:37 PM
While we can point to tonight's election results on the calendar, and imagine that they'll have an impact on financial markets, stocks and bonds sim...
Tue, Nov 6 2018, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today. A few lenders were microscopically stronger or weaker, and the average lender was perfectly unchanged. That's f...
Tue, Nov 6 2018, 8:52 AM
Justified or not, midterm elections are the market mover du jour. Midterm elections happen today, so it's fair to wonder if they will be a market mov...
Mon, Nov 5 2018, 5:19 PM
Today had the look and feel of a summertime Monday--the first we've seen since--well...summertime! Volume was much lighter than it has been in week...
Mon, Nov 5 2018, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates continued pushing up to new 7-year highs today, even if only by a small margin. This is notable because the underlying bond market (the...
Mon, Nov 5 2018, 8:58 AM
Bonds had a rough week last week, more than fully erasing the rally they enjoyed as stocks sold-off in the previous week. Today's first chart shows t...
Fri, Nov 2 2018, 7:29 PM
Today, and indeed the week in general was fairly straightforward as far as bond markets were concerned. Today brought a fairly well anticipated jobs ...
Fri, Nov 2 2018, 6:25 PM
Mortgage rates had a bad week and an especially bad day following a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. The Employment Situation (the most import...
Fri, Nov 2 2018, 8:26 AM
This morning brings the often-important jobs report. Traditionally, the key component has been nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which is just a tally of new j...
Thu, Nov 1 2018, 4:54 PM
Today ended up being somewhat triumphant for bonds. It didn't begin that way, however. Yields were higher overnight and moved up just a bit more in ...
Thu, Nov 1 2018, 4:12 PM
It's Thursday! That means it's time, once again, to set the record straight on today's actual mortgage rates as opposed to those suggested by almost a...
Thu, Nov 1 2018, 8:37 AM
Bonds have either trying to position themselves in a relatively defensive, pessimistic stance heading into upcoming key events, or their staging on ...
Wed, Oct 31 2018, 4:13 PM
Bonds ended the day in weaker territory with 10yr yields rising roughly 3bps and Fannie 4.0 MBS losing nearly a quarter of a point.
Much like yester...
Wed, Oct 31 2018, 3:29 PM
Mortgage rates were higher by a fairly small margin once again today. Interest rates in general (which are determined by the bond market) have been ta...
Wed, Oct 31 2018, 9:18 AM
The title of this commentary is not a Halloween pun . I don't do Halloween puns anymore. No, there is some legitimate cause for concern--even a bit...
Tue, Oct 30 2018, 4:04 PM
If there's a theme in the bond market over the past 2 days, it's that we've broken away from the previously fairly rigid correlation with stocks. Tha...
Tue, Oct 30 2018, 3:05 PM
Mortgage rates were moderately higher today as underlying bond markets continued backing away from their strongest levels in more than 3 weeks (strong...
Tue, Oct 30 2018, 8:45 AM
With bonds being flat to slightly weaker yesterday and now noticeably weaker overnight, we may be looking at our first real resistance bounce (aka "fl...
Mon, Oct 29 2018, 5:00 PM
The bond market has seen one too many "stay thirsty" memes. For example, "I don't always rally for more than a few days in a rising rate environmen...
Mon, Oct 29 2018, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move today, despite a fair amount of underlying market volatility. Rates are able to weather the sorts of storms you hear about ...
Mon, Oct 29 2018, 10:04 AM
Core global bond markets--led by German Bunds and US Treasuries--have been trending lower fairly reliably. For European bonds, that rally has occupie...
Fri, Oct 26 2018, 5:42 PM
Interest rates that have generally been rising for a any period of time can catch a break for many reasons. Sometimes it's Italian political drama ...
Fri, Oct 26 2018, 2:08 PM
Mortgage rates fell decisively today--at least in the context of the recent range--thanks primarily to heavy losses in the stock market. Stocks are fa...
Fri, Oct 26 2018, 8:31 AM
Everything continues to be fairly unidimensional for bonds this week with the dimension in question being that of the equities market. In terms of re...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 5:32 PM
The best way to look at today is as a more sober attempt to hold the lowest yields in more than 3 weeks . The only day that's ended any better for...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged yet again , making this the third day in a row at essentially the same levels. Strikingly, underlying market movement wa...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 9:07 AM
With slightly weaker levels overnight, the rest of the day becomes a fight to maintain the gains seen so far this week. The easiest and most basic ob...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 4:56 PM
Yesterday was ' neat ' for a while--at least in the morning hours when massive stock losses helped bonds achieve their best levels in weeks. Then sto...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today. That's an appalling reality considering the movement in underlying bond markets. Bonds--specifically, mor...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 8:49 AM
For nearly a week, 10yr Treasury yields had been treating 3.18% as a floor (3.178% was the lowest close over the past 4 days. That arguably changed ...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 5:49 PM
What a frustrating day! Yes, it's true that bonds ended up in positive territory at the close, but it would have almost been better to endure a modes...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 5:05 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much for the second day this week. Unlike yesterday, there was a relatively massive amount of volatility in underlying fina...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 4:56 PM
Duration is a key variable in deciding value to bond investors investors. In fact, many investors have a duration target for their portfolio. Duratio...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 9:17 AM
Yesterday was boring and uneventful. Bonds seemed to be trying everything in their power to remain range-bound and avoid breaking out of the consol...
Mon, Oct 22 2018, 5:26 PM
As of October 16th, we'd been tracking the most recent consolidation in bond yields (and stocks for that matter) waiting for a breakout to suggest the...
Mon, Oct 22 2018, 4:52 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Lenders who made changes to Friday's rate sheets generally did so toward slightly higher rates. Actually, it wo...
Mon, Oct 22 2018, 8:47 AM
The basic candlestick or bar chart that the average bond analyst uses to track 10yr Treasury yields is doing a good job of capturing the current oppos...
Fri, Oct 19 2018, 8:02 PM
Bonds were stuck between a rock and a hard place today. Actually they were stuck between stocks and a European place. Stocks made a case for a bond ...
Fri, Oct 19 2018, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates failed to extend yesterday's modest improvement, moving modestly higher by the end of the day. This takes the average lender very close...
Fri, Oct 19 2018, 8:54 AM
We've talked a bit (in this commentary and in the live chat on MBS Live ) about the similarities between the October sell-off and one seen in April/M...
