Tue, Nov 5 2019, 6:07 PM
Mortgage rates were flat yesterday , but I warned that volatility could increase today. That turned out to be an understatement. Mortgage rates shot h...
Tue, Nov 5 2019, 8:52 AM
Bonds had a reasonably rough day yesterday, but most of the weakness was reserved for Treasuries. MBS managed to escape with minimal damage. There w...
Mon, Nov 4 2019, 7:09 PM
Treasuries tanked today and there were none of the sort of obvious catalysts you'd hope to see. I checked my math on that with people smarter than me...
Mon, Nov 4 2019, 6:00 PM
Mortgage rates were flat to slightly higher today after dropping at fairly quick pace last week. In fact, if we're only examining one-day changes in r...
Mon, Nov 4 2019, 10:23 AM
For some reason, I feel like the 2nd half of 2018 has been one of the most legitimately uncertain eras of bond trading in the post-crisis market envir...
Fri, Nov 1 2019, 5:24 PM
Bonds were stronger overnight, riding a wave of buying demand on the heels of yesterday's weak econ data and US/China trade deal uncertainty. Some ma...
Fri, Nov 1 2019, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today after moving sharply lower yesterday. "Sharply," in this context, means that many lenders saw rates move lower by as ...
Fri, Nov 1 2019, 9:41 AM
Bonds rallied big yesterday on a combination of factors. These included a rejection of the Trump administration's claimed timeline for the US/China t...
Thu, Oct 31 2019, 5:59 PM
Most of the month of October was rotten for the bond market. Material progress on the trade deal, a leveling-off of economic data deterioration, and ...
Thu, Oct 31 2019, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates dropped like a rock today . This has absolutely nothing to do with yesterday's Fed rate cut, a little to do with the market reaction to...
Thu, Oct 31 2019, 8:35 AM
Chicago PMI isn't always more important that PCE inflation. After all Core PCE is the Fed's favorite big-picture inflation reading (the thing they wa...
Wed, Oct 30 2019, 3:52 PM
First things first: the Fed cut its policy rate today, but that doesn't mean they cut mortgage rates . Why? Because they can't and they don't--especia...
Wed, Oct 30 2019, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July September indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic...
Wed, Oct 30 2019, 10:08 AM
The bond market had a decent enough day yesterday as it managed to hold steady-to-slightly-stronger versus Monday's ugly closing levels. "Supply" (ak...
Tue, Oct 29 2019, 5:33 PM
The only way to read anything overly dramatic into today's bond trading would simply be to observe where it falls in the bigger picture. In other wor...
Tue, Oct 29 2019, 4:36 PM
You may have heard that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates this week. That is true. It's happening tomorrow . It would be a big surpris...
Tue, Oct 29 2019, 9:28 AM
Yesterday saw the bond market sell off in a fairly frustrating way. Granted, there was some justification for the initial overnight weakness courtesy...
Mon, Oct 28 2019, 5:32 PM
Mortgage rates increased again today as lenders continued to get caught up with 2 days of bond market weakness. When bonds are weaker, prices are movi...
Mon, Oct 28 2019, 9:52 AM
Last Friday's morning commentary wasn't necessarily fun to read for fans of low rates, but it was important to digest for those that want to be prepar...
Fri, Oct 25 2019, 4:56 PM
Let's face it. It makes sense for the average bond trader to be more indecisive than normal right now. A no-deal Brexit was avoided this week (bad f...
Fri, Oct 25 2019, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower for 3 days in a row as of yesterday afternoon. But that trend was likely to reverse based on the timing of yesterday's mark...
Fri, Oct 25 2019, 11:17 AM
In about 2 weeks, the big bond rally of 2019 will officially be 1 year old (because it actually began in the 2nd week of November). This has been a u...
Thu, Oct 24 2019, 4:17 PM
At a few points in the past 2 days, it looked as if bonds were finally ready to move back toward lower yields after 2 weeks spent moving fairly quickl...
Thu, Oct 24 2019, 3:43 PM
Mortgage rates dropped at a modest pace for the 3rd straight day on Thursday. This brings them back in line with levels seen at the end of last week. ...
Thu, Oct 24 2019, 8:31 AM
Yesterday was fairly uneventful as global markets generally cooled off after 2 big days of Brexit-related volatility at the beginning of the week. Fo...
Wed, Oct 23 2019, 5:04 PM
Mortgage rates moved a bit lower yesterday after hitting the highest levels in more than a month the day before. They kept the positive trend going to...
Wed, Oct 23 2019, 9:38 AM
Yesterday saw bonds respond almost exclusively to Brexit-related headlines (read THIS RECAP for a synopsis of the day's events and Brexit's impact on ...
Tue, Oct 22 2019, 5:42 PM
First things first: all of the volatility we're about to discuss has been occurring inside a fairly narrow range in the slightly bigger picture. More...
Tue, Oct 22 2019, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates recovered just a bit today after hitting the highest levels in more than a month yesterday. The inspiration for much of the recent upwa...
Tue, Oct 22 2019, 9:32 AM
Yesterday saw an extension of the recent selling trend in bonds with yields hitting the highest levels in more than a month. One might argue that yes...
Mon, Oct 21 2019, 7:28 PM
Mortgage rates may have managed to remain mostly flat last week, but they did so near their highest levels in several weeks. After moving up at a mode...
Mon, Oct 21 2019, 9:09 AM
Last week saw the US bond market fight off an intermittent barrage of weakness as global markets geared up for the weekend's big Brexit vote. By Fri...
Fri, Oct 18 2019, 6:04 PM
Today was a throw-away day for the bond market. Yields matched their narrowest trading range of the week and ended the day at their most 'unchanged' ...
Fri, Oct 18 2019, 6:03 PM
Mortgage rates were flat today. In fact, they were very close to being flat on the week for that matter! This is a reflection of the bond markets curr...
Fri, Oct 18 2019, 9:03 AM
Yesterday brought the highest yields in a month as Brexit-related optimism swelled early in the overnight session. At issue: British PM Johnson and E...
Thu, Oct 17 2019, 4:24 PM
The bond market has a lot on its mind right now. 2019 is proving to be very different from other episodes of big, protracted rate trends. In most pa...
Thu, Oct 17 2019, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates didn't do much today, but risks are increasing that movement will be more brisk in the coming business days. Blame European politics--s...
Thu, Oct 17 2019, 9:34 AM
Yesterday saw a swath of Brexit headlines spark unavoidable bond market weakness just as a weaker reading in the important Retail Sales report suggest...
Wed, Oct 16 2019, 6:31 PM
There was a bit of a giveaway in this morning's commentary, titled "Brexit Headlines vs Retail Sales." Indeed, it's "Brexit headlines" that answer th...
Wed, Oct 16 2019, 6:01 PM
Mortgage rates improved modestly today, depending on the lender. Some lenders moved rates higher yesterday due to deterioration in the bond market. Ot...
Wed, Oct 16 2019, 8:45 AM
Yesterday saw bonds undo a decent amount of overnight progress to end at the highest yields in nearly a month. 10yr Treasuries broke above the 1.75% ...
Tue, Oct 15 2019, 4:59 PM
There were two key parts to today's market movement. The first was the general push back against Friday's bond market weakness courtesy of less upbea...
Tue, Oct 15 2019, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates ended higher for the 4th straight business day on Tuesday, but that wasn't necessarily destined to be the case this morning. After last...
Tue, Oct 15 2019, 10:05 AM
Last week brought a bit of a bumpy ride for bond markets with trade-related news accounting for most of the drama. Things were more uneventful on the...
Fri, Oct 11 2019, 6:11 PM
With the exception of the wee hours yesterday morning, the past 2 days have been all about the trade deal. Markets knew Trump and the Chinese vice pr...
Fri, Oct 11 2019, 5:27 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher from Wednesday through the end of the week. Thursday and Friday were especially abrupt as financial markets hurried to get...
Fri, Oct 11 2019, 9:00 AM
Yesterday brought an abrupt confirmation of a bounce in bonds. For 10yr Treasury yields, the scene of the bounce was 1.51% earlier in the week. Mult...
Thu, Oct 10 2019, 6:09 PM
Mortgage rates were sharply higher today as the underlying bond market faced heavy selling pressure for a variety of reasons. When investors are more ...
Thu, Oct 10 2019, 6:09 PM
Heading into this week, we looked to today as the biggest potential source of volatility owing to the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and th...
Thu, Oct 10 2019, 9:15 AM
Yesterday brought moderate weakness for the bond market. Justifying it doesn't have to be any more complicated than technical resistance combined wit...
