Fri, Jul 19 2019, 8:31 PM
If yesterday was marked by rather aggressive comments by Fed's Williams (aggressive enough to convince a few market participants that the Fed might cu...
Fri, Jul 19 2019, 8:04 PM
Mortgage rates Moved just slightly lower today, despite some push back from underlying bond markets. Typically, weakness in the bond market (like the ...
Fri, Jul 19 2019, 9:25 AM
In the day just passed, bonds did an admirable job shaking off the ill effects of a significantly stronger Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Out...
Thu, Jul 18 2019, 6:13 PM
It was a tale of two market movers today as afternoon Fed comments completely reversed an earlier reaction to super strong economic data. The Philly ...
Thu, Jul 18 2019, 5:37 PM
Economic data and mortgage rate movement go hand in hand. A stronger economy puts upward pressure on rates. A contracting economy helps rates move low...
Thu, Jul 18 2019, 8:48 AM
In the day just passed, bonds enjoyed one of their best rally days in recent weeks as the stock market endured its 2nd weakest day since May. Stocks ...
Wed, Jul 17 2019, 5:27 PM
Mortgage rates improved today, depending on the lender and the time of day! Underlying bond markets were only modestly stronger in the morning. As suc...
Wed, Jul 17 2019, 5:26 PM
What began as a rather unassuming summertime Wednesday quickly turned in to one of the biggest rally days in weeks for bonds. 10yr yields moved more ...
Wed, Jul 17 2019, 9:23 AM
In the day just passed, a strong Retail Sales report kept the pressure on bond markets to remain in the negative trend that prevailed last week. Yiel...
Tue, Jul 16 2019, 6:27 PM
Bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory. On the one hand, that was impressive considering the lack of substance underlying yesterday's ral...
Tue, Jul 16 2019, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates were flat to slightly higher today, following a stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report. The bond market (which dictates mortgage ra...
Tue, Jul 16 2019, 8:35 AM
In the day just passed, bonds traversed a sleepy summertime Monday trading session without much volume or liquidity. That dynamic was somewhat exacer...
Mon, Jul 15 2019, 4:42 PM
Today was one of those unofficial 3-day weekend type of Mondays with light volume, light trader participation, and "drifty" trading momentum. A marke...
Mon, Jul 15 2019, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates were mostly flat to begin the new week, even though underlying bond markets were in stronger territory. Bonds, more than anything else,...
Mon, Jul 15 2019, 9:12 AM
In the week just passed, the first 4 days (and especially Tue/Thu) served as the scene for a breakout from the previous trend (seen in the yellow line...
Fri, Jul 12 2019, 6:28 PM
Last Friday's jobs report meant business (bad business for low rates). Even though Powell ultimately told us that one jobs report wouldn't fundamen...
Fri, Jul 12 2019, 5:56 PM
Mortgage rates moved decisively higher this week as the underlying bond market finally began shifting gears. After the Fed meeting in June, rates move...
Fri, Jul 12 2019, 9:12 AM
In the day just passed, bonds slipped into a bit of a capitulation sell-off following slightly stronger CPI data and a much weaker 30yr bond auction. ...
Thu, Jul 11 2019, 9:08 AM
In the day just passed, bonds weakened abruptly in the overnight session--mostly due to strong European economic data. Traders were also cautious ahe...
Wed, Jul 10 2019, 3:10 PM
There was a lot that could have gone wrong for the bond market today, given the confluence of big-ticket events (Powell testimony, 10yr auction, Fed m...
Wed, Jul 10 2019, 2:31 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today following the much-anticipated congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Although these testimonies are regu...
Wed, Jul 10 2019, 9:16 AM
In the day just passed, bonds weakened slightly but remained inside the recent range. The weakness is in line with a linear trend leading to the uppe...
Tue, Jul 9 2019, 3:59 PM
Bonds weakened today, even if only slightly. It was enough to bring 10yr yields right up to the closest and arguably most significant overhead tech...
Tue, Jul 9 2019, 3:07 PM
Mortgage rates rose today, largely in response to weakness in the bond market seen yesterday afternoon (and confirmed this morning). Mortgage rates fo...
Tue, Jul 9 2019, 9:21 AM
In the day just past, bonds began the week slowly and without much conviction. Friday's post-NFP weakness was essentially confirmed by the fact that ...
Mon, Jul 8 2019, 6:01 PM
Today was the story of a bond market that is considering a potential shift in momentum in response to a confluence of events. These include last Frid...
Mon, Jul 8 2019, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates began the day in slightly lower territory compared to last Friday afternoon, but they'd risen noticeably from Wednesday to Friday. The ...
Mon, Jul 8 2019, 9:13 AM
In the week just past, bonds rallied hard into the Independence Day holiday. 10yr yields hit fresh multi-year lows before getting slammed by a jobs r...
Fri, Jul 5 2019, 6:04 PM
If we went back to Monday morning and learned that today's NFP number would come in at 224k, any sane person would have guessed yields would be much h...
Fri, Jul 5 2019, 5:11 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today following higher-than-expected job creation in a report from the Labor Department. The Employment Situation (aka "th...
Fri, Jul 5 2019, 8:31 AM
On Wednesday, bond markets digested two of the week's most important economic reports in the from of ADP employment and ISM non-manufacturing. Appoin...
Wed, Jul 3 2019, 2:19 PM
Mortgage rates fell at a moderate pace today. As expected, the lenders who hadn't gotten around to improving during yesterday's bond market rally (str...
Wed, Jul 3 2019, 8:15 AM
In the day just past, the bond market finally made its first move outside of the recent consolidation range--a series of lower highs and higher lows t...
Tue, Jul 2 2019, 4:55 PM
In the amusement park that is financial markets, each asset class has a few favorite rides. When the place is packed, it's tough for any given asset ...
Tue, Jul 2 2019, 3:33 PM
Mortgage rates moved down today by varying amounts depending on the lender. In some cases, lenders weren't offering much of an improvement over yester...
Tue, Jul 2 2019, 9:41 AM
In the day just past, bonds did an admirable job of fending off the implications of the weekend's G20 news (US/China reopening trade talks, etc). Whi...
Mon, Jul 1 2019, 6:07 PM
There was certainly some risk of volatility associated with the G20 summit over the weekend, even if no one expected it to produce any fundamental cha...
Mon, Jul 1 2019, 5:30 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher to start the new week, which is a pretty good outcome considering the underlying events. On Friday, we anticipated...
Mon, Jul 1 2019, 9:37 AM
In the week just past, bonds avoided a negative correction following the previous week's Fed-induced rally. There was plenty of back and forth, but i...
Fri, Jun 28 2019, 3:01 PM
Bonds were perfectly unchanged to start the day after the smallest amount of overnight movement we've seen all week. This is a palpable reminder th...
Fri, Jun 28 2019, 12:59 PM
Mortgage rates enjoyed a pleasantly flat week despite some volatility in the underlying bond market. The day-to-day changes in Treasuries and Mortgage...
Fri, Jun 28 2019, 8:34 AM
In the day just past, both stocks and bonds showed a greater predisposition to react to trade-related headlines (more so in stocks, but noticeable in ...
Thu, Jun 27 2019, 5:33 PM
Stop me if you've heard this one before: bonds have been trading in a mostly sideways, consolidative range ahead of what should prove to be key events...
Thu, Jun 27 2019, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates rose to the week's highest levels yesterday, but they moved back down today . Although there have been slightly better days over the pa...
Thu, Jun 27 2019, 8:43 AM
In the day just past, bond markets weakened at a reasonably quick pace. The initial motivation was a headline regarding the prospects of a US/China t...
Wed, Jun 26 2019, 5:22 PM
Things have been bright and sunny for the bond market without any troubling exceptions since mid-April. During that time we've only seen 10yr yields ...
Wed, Jun 26 2019, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates hadn't moved much since last Friday--a good thing considering those levels were in line with the lowest levels in a long time. The grou...
Wed, Jun 26 2019, 9:59 AM
In the day just past, bonds extended the gains seen on Monday with 10yr yields hitting 1.98% before encountering resistance. The gains are most readi...
Tue, Jun 25 2019, 5:38 PM
Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight but soon began to improve at the CME and NYSE opening bells. Weak economic data at 10am didn't hurt the rally,...
Tue, Jun 25 2019, 5:11 PM
Mortgage rates were little-changed again today, despite moderate improvement in the broader bond market. Although it's MBS (the mortgage-backed securi...
