Tue, Apr 23 2019, 9:41 AM
Oil is one of the most fundamental economic inputs when it comes to determining costs and thus inflation. Inflation is one of the most fundamental in...
Mon, Apr 22 2019, 5:43 PM
There's age old market wisdom that loosely suggests any given move should be taken more seriously if there's a lot of volume behind it. Deductively, ...
Mon, Apr 22 2019, 4:54 PM
Mortgage rates were higher again on Monday, but just barely. The average lender was still in worse shape on Tuesday or Wednesday of last week when rat...
Mon, Apr 22 2019, 9:48 AM
Are we or are we not headed toward a global economic contraction in mid-to-late 2019? Or are such things on hold for another year or two? Inquiring ...
Thu, Apr 18 2019, 2:31 PM
Global economic data is big business for the bond market these days. With no end in sight to the domestic economic expansion (note: 1.6% vs 0.9% f'ca...
Thu, Apr 18 2019, 2:06 PM
Mortgage rates have generally been moving higher since March 28th after they bottomed out at the lowest levels in well over a year. At the time, inves...
Thu, Apr 18 2019, 10:10 AM
Despite the presence of a big economic report like Retail Sales (which came out much higher than expected) or the unique event risk presented by the B...
Wed, Apr 17 2019, 5:06 PM
As feared, bonds were gearing up for the raft of big-ticket economic data in China overnight. On balance, that data was quite a bit better than expec...
Wed, Apr 17 2019, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher for the 5th day in a row today. This brings the average lender to the highest levels in exactly one month. At issue: a...
Wed, Apr 17 2019, 9:06 AM
Over the years, there have been more times than I can count where the financial media has mistakenly assigned some significance to news or events in C...
Tue, Apr 16 2019, 5:11 PM
Rates were flat to start the overnight session and didn't bat an eyelash at initial strength in equities markets during Asia-only trading hours. Thin...
Tue, Apr 16 2019, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates rose again today, albeit at a slightly slower clip compared to yesterday. Still, that's little consolidation considering this is the 4t...
Tue, Apr 16 2019, 10:32 AM
Reading the news this morning, I came across multiple articles with such bogus claims that I feel compelled to rant about it here. All of the offen...
Mon, Apr 15 2019, 6:15 PM
What would you expect to care more about Chinese economic data: the US bond market or the Chinese stock market? Option 2? Good, I agree.
Now, if y...
Mon, Apr 15 2019, 5:25 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher to start the week, following a relatively sharp increase on Friday. Interestingly enough, the underlying bond market w...
Mon, Apr 15 2019, 10:12 AM
Ah China... the US financial market's scapegoat of choice for many a swing that has nothing to do with China (with a few big, notable exceptions). ...
Fri, Apr 12 2019, 5:19 PM
Mortgage rates rose fairly quickly on Friday, depending on the lender and the scenario. Bonds (which dictate mortgage rates and interest rates in gene...
Fri, Apr 12 2019, 11:04 AM
The domestic bond market woke up this morning to find itself pushed up against the same ceiling that had offered a friendly bounce late last week. Be...
Thu, Apr 11 2019, 6:33 PM
As expected, the result of the emergency EU summit overnight was a hefty brexit extension, giving the UK until 10/31 to approve a compromise deal to l...
Thu, Apr 11 2019, 5:41 PM
Mortgage rates were arguably flat today for the average lender although a few were slightly higher or lower depending on their offerings from yesterda...
Thu, Apr 11 2019, 10:32 AM
Global financial markets caught a glimpse of a world with 10yr yields above 3% in late 2018, and they didn't like it. A combination of stock selling ...
Wed, Apr 10 2019, 5:04 PM
European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi is getting very good at telling the world that the EU economy is in dire straits, but not to worry ...
Wed, Apr 10 2019, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates dropped today. It wasn't a huge move, but they didn't have to go very far to get to the best levels of the month. To be fair, many pros...
Wed, Apr 10 2019, 10:02 AM
Wednesday is off to a good start with friendly inflation data leading things off at 8:30am and an even friendlier press conference from European Centr...
Tue, Apr 9 2019, 5:29 PM
Treasuries were stronger today while MBS were mostly weaker. These days can happen, and they're all the more likely when a few key variables are pres...
Tue, Apr 9 2019, 4:45 PM
Mortgage rates were flat-to-slightly-higher yet again today. Whereas that depended on the lender yesterday, today's weakness was more universal. That'...
Tue, Apr 9 2019, 9:20 AM
There are no significant economic reports or scheduled events on the calendar today, unless you count the 3yr Treasury auction at 1pm (and you probabl...
Mon, Apr 8 2019, 6:33 PM
Back on Thursday afternoon, bonds/rates looked like they were just wrapping up the process of rising into position between the old range and the new r...
Mon, Apr 8 2019, 6:05 PM
Mortgage rates were flat-to-slightly-higher today, depending on the lender and the time of day. Why would the time of day matter? Mortgage rates are b...
Mon, Apr 8 2019, 9:46 AM
At first glance, this week's economic calendar is fairly light, with Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) being the only upper-tier report in terms ...
Fri, Apr 5 2019, 5:39 PM
The tale of two ranges continued in grand fashion overnight as 10yr yields made it all the way to the top of the lower, better range seen since the Ma...
Fri, Apr 5 2019, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today following a mixed report on the US labor market. The once-a-month Employment Situation (the official name for the "jo...
Fri, Apr 5 2019, 8:20 AM
Yesterday's bond market volume was as low as it's been since Monday, March 18th. Then, like now, bonds were on the approach to a big potential market...
Thu, Apr 4 2019, 5:27 PM
Bonds were very modestly stronger today, although the more important takeaway is that they effectively held in line with the highest yields of the pas...
Thu, Apr 4 2019, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged today after hitting the highest levels in more than a week yesterday. In general, the bond market (which dictates rate mo...
Thu, Apr 4 2019, 10:04 AM
We've talked a lot about 2.55% in 10yr yields as an important floor for most of Q1 2019. It was broken after the Fed's March 20th announcement. For ...
Wed, Apr 3 2019, 4:34 PM
The title of yesterday's recap was "Don't Call It a Comeback," and today's weakness is why. Well, to be fair, since I'm always the first to tell you ...
Wed, Apr 3 2019, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates resumed a week-long move higher today, bringing them to the highest levels since March 19th or 20th, depending on the lender. Between n...
Wed, Apr 3 2019, 10:01 AM
With 10yr yields beginning the day well over 2.50% and with 2.55% being the line in the sand marking the breakout from the sideways range at the begin...
Tue, Apr 2 2019, 5:08 PM
Bonds made some gains today, much to the relief of anyone who didn't really care to see rates explode higher after hitting long-term lows last week. ...
Tue, Apr 2 2019, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates spiked quickly yesterday, moving up to the highest levels in more than a week and adding an eighth of a percentage point (.125%) to Fri...
Tue, Apr 2 2019, 10:40 AM
It's no mystery at this point that the US bond market has exited its steep, directional, and super friendly move to long-term lows over the past few d...
Mon, Apr 1 2019, 5:45 PM
First thing's first, there's not much about a 10bp gain in 10yr yields and nearly a half a point of MBS weakness that would be considered "mini," but...
Mon, Apr 1 2019, 4:53 PM
Mortgage rates spiked quickly today, capping a 3-day run leading back up from the lowest levels in more than a year. Today's move was by far the bigge...
Mon, Apr 1 2019, 9:41 AM
In terms of directional movement, things have been great for bond markets since early November 2018. Much of that greatness, however, felt more like ...
Fri, Mar 29 2019, 3:54 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory, threatening to confirm a 2 day move that ends March's impressive run. Weakness remained intact all day but b...
Fri, Mar 29 2019, 3:18 PM
Mortgage rates were higher again today, making this the first confirmed bounce since beginning their stellar run last week. To be clear, rates have be...
Fri, Mar 29 2019, 10:36 AM
While the notion that "all good things come to an end" is the subject of philosophical debate, it's a safe bet that all awesome bond rallies will even...
Thu, Mar 28 2019, 6:01 PM
It's very easy to fall into the trap of allowing gains or losses to dictate one's market sentiment on any given day. For instance, am I more likely to...
Thu, Mar 28 2019, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher by a measurable amount today--the first time they've done such a thing in nearly a month! Even after the modest increase, ...
