Fri, Apr 5 2019, 5:39 PM
The tale of two ranges continued in grand fashion overnight as 10yr yields made it all the way to the top of the lower, better range seen since the Ma...
Fri, Apr 5 2019, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today following a mixed report on the US labor market. The once-a-month Employment Situation (the official name for the "jo...
Fri, Apr 5 2019, 8:20 AM
Yesterday's bond market volume was as low as it's been since Monday, March 18th. Then, like now, bonds were on the approach to a big potential market...
Thu, Apr 4 2019, 5:27 PM
Bonds were very modestly stronger today, although the more important takeaway is that they effectively held in line with the highest yields of the pas...
Thu, Apr 4 2019, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged today after hitting the highest levels in more than a week yesterday. In general, the bond market (which dictates rate mo...
Thu, Apr 4 2019, 10:04 AM
We've talked a lot about 2.55% in 10yr yields as an important floor for most of Q1 2019. It was broken after the Fed's March 20th announcement. For ...
Wed, Apr 3 2019, 4:34 PM
The title of yesterday's recap was "Don't Call It a Comeback," and today's weakness is why. Well, to be fair, since I'm always the first to tell you ...
Wed, Apr 3 2019, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates resumed a week-long move higher today, bringing them to the highest levels since March 19th or 20th, depending on the lender. Between n...
Wed, Apr 3 2019, 10:01 AM
With 10yr yields beginning the day well over 2.50% and with 2.55% being the line in the sand marking the breakout from the sideways range at the begin...
Tue, Apr 2 2019, 5:08 PM
Bonds made some gains today, much to the relief of anyone who didn't really care to see rates explode higher after hitting long-term lows last week. ...
Tue, Apr 2 2019, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates spiked quickly yesterday, moving up to the highest levels in more than a week and adding an eighth of a percentage point (.125%) to Fri...
Tue, Apr 2 2019, 10:40 AM
It's no mystery at this point that the US bond market has exited its steep, directional, and super friendly move to long-term lows over the past few d...
Mon, Apr 1 2019, 5:45 PM
First thing's first, there's not much about a 10bp gain in 10yr yields and nearly a half a point of MBS weakness that would be considered "mini," but...
Mon, Apr 1 2019, 4:53 PM
Mortgage rates spiked quickly today, capping a 3-day run leading back up from the lowest levels in more than a year. Today's move was by far the bigge...
Mon, Apr 1 2019, 9:41 AM
In terms of directional movement, things have been great for bond markets since early November 2018. Much of that greatness, however, felt more like ...
Fri, Mar 29 2019, 3:54 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory, threatening to confirm a 2 day move that ends March's impressive run. Weakness remained intact all day but b...
Fri, Mar 29 2019, 3:18 PM
Mortgage rates were higher again today, making this the first confirmed bounce since beginning their stellar run last week. To be clear, rates have be...
Fri, Mar 29 2019, 10:36 AM
While the notion that "all good things come to an end" is the subject of philosophical debate, it's a safe bet that all awesome bond rallies will even...
Thu, Mar 28 2019, 6:01 PM
It's very easy to fall into the trap of allowing gains or losses to dictate one's market sentiment on any given day. For instance, am I more likely to...
Thu, Mar 28 2019, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher by a measurable amount today--the first time they've done such a thing in nearly a month! Even after the modest increase, ...
Thu, Mar 28 2019, 9:40 AM
It's no secret that bonds have rallied impressively in March. The bigger and faster a rally is, the more we may worry about the risk of a bounce. To...
Wed, Mar 27 2019, 5:36 PM
The notion of contrarian indicators is pretty interesting when it comes to the bond market, at least when it comes to investor sentiment. I take pa...
Wed, Mar 27 2019, 4:29 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower for the 6th straight day , bringing them very close to the best levels since late 2017. Perhaps more impressive (or telling...
Wed, Mar 27 2019, 9:57 AM
"Science" may not be exactly the right term, but let's look at the recent bond market gains under an objective microscope. In so doing, we will see t...
Tue, Mar 26 2019, 5:51 PM
All things being equal, today was a fine day for the bond market. Sure, 10yr yields ended the day 2bps higher than yesterday's latest levels, but in ...
Tue, Mar 26 2019, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates took the day to do just a little bit more of what they've been doing in fairly grand fashion for the past week: MOVE LOWER! When the go...
Tue, Mar 26 2019, 10:09 AM
Quite a few talking heads and analysts referred to last Wednesday's post-Fed rally as 'overdone.' They pointed to Thursday's moderate weakness as evi...
Mon, Mar 25 2019, 6:13 PM
There were no significant economic reports today and no obvious market-moving news headlines. Nevertheless, bonds went on yet another snowball rally ...
Mon, Mar 25 2019, 5:20 PM
Mortgage rates continued deeper into long-term lows today as the underlying bond market experiences its most impressive rally of the year. In a rally,...
Mon, Mar 25 2019, 9:39 AM
From a calendar standpoint, the most notable thing about the week ahead is that it's the final week of the month/quarter. This usually means we'll ...
Fri, Mar 22 2019, 5:30 PM
At the end of last week, the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate quote was 4.375%. As of today, the exact same scenario would be at 4.125%--a qu...
Fri, Mar 22 2019, 10:59 AM
Sometimes a plan comes together and sometimes an educated guess pans out. While it's never safe to plan on any future reality (other than "uncertai...
Thu, Mar 21 2019, 6:23 PM
Apparently it took the 9:30am NYSE opening bell ringer for stocks to truly realize what just happened. The Fed announcement on Wednesday was their wa...
Thu, Mar 21 2019, 5:13 PM
Granted, we're not back to the sub-4% mortgage rates that dominated much of the past 8 years, but breaking into the high 3% range is a valid considera...
Thu, Mar 21 2019, 10:27 AM
In case you missed yesterday, it was a doozy. Here are a few links that would help you get caught up:
Here's Why Bonds Loved The Fed (And It's ...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 6:00 PM
You may see news stories about the Fed shifting its rate hike outlook (conveyed in a dot plot often referred to as "the dots") to "zero hikes in 2019,...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 5:30 PM
Mortgage rates broke a week-long streak of silence today following a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. Even before today's Fed announcemen...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 2:09 PM
Below are the differences in the first paragraph of the current Fed statement as compared to the previous version from January 30th, 2019. There were...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 8:45 AM
Today's only key event will be the Fed Announcement , which is actually 3 events in 1. At 2pm, we'll get the policy announcement itself as well as t...
Tue, Mar 19 2019, 4:17 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory following overnight headlines suggesting European leaders would be going up to bat for a compromise Brexit d...
Tue, Mar 19 2019, 3:48 PM
Mortgage rates were flat for the 4th day in a row today in a sign that investors have largely taken their seats for tomorrow's big show. The Fed will ...
Tue, Mar 19 2019, 9:36 AM
Rates staged an impressive rally in November and December before bottoming out on the first trading day of 2019. The bounce was fairly abrupt at th...
Mon, Mar 18 2019, 5:02 PM
For the bond market St Paddy's day was a 2 week celebration of "green" (as in the color of price gains or falling yields on trading terminals) beginni...
Mon, Mar 18 2019, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates didn't budge today--a logical result with no signs of life in underlying bond markets. In the current case, this is just fine with us c...
Mon, Mar 18 2019, 9:18 AM
This week's economic calendar is exceptionally light, with no true top-tier reports. Even the 2nd-tier data is limited with Philly Fed on Thursday an...
Fri, Mar 15 2019, 7:39 PM
Uncertainty has reigned supreme for much of 2019 as traders weigh shifting economic data, potential data inconsistencies (due the shutdown), trade pol...
Fri, Mar 15 2019, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates remained at recent lows today, as underlying bond markets strengthened. For US Treasuries, this brought rates to new multi-month lows. ...
Fri, Mar 15 2019, 9:22 AM
People who write articles every day love holidays and other dates that offer some reprieve from the need to be creative when it comes to writing headl...
Thu, Mar 14 2019, 5:14 PM
In the bigger picture, we'll look back at today's intraday trading range and it will be completely meaningless--among the narrower days of 1st quarter...
Thu, Mar 14 2019, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, despite moderate weakness in underlying bond markets. This occurred for two reasons. First, yesterday saw bond marke...
